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Started By
Message
CPI headline at 9.1% YoY - higher than 8.8% expected
Posted on 7/13/22 at 7:37 am
Posted on 7/13/22 at 7:37 am
Bigger issue, IMO, is 1.3% MoM increase, which is blistering hot, and it’s even .7% on core.
Will be interesting to see how these dramatic commodity price decreases filter through. Also, .75% increase is all but assured at the July meeting.
Will be interesting to see how these dramatic commodity price decreases filter through. Also, .75% increase is all but assured at the July meeting.
3
Posted on 7/13/22 at 7:43 am to slackster
% odds of a 100 bps hike is over 20% now
This post was edited on 7/13/22 at 7:44 am
Posted on 7/13/22 at 7:45 am to castorinho
quote:
% odds of a 100 bps hike is over 20% now
True. I should have said .75% or higher is a lock.
Posted on 7/13/22 at 7:46 am to slackster
wasn't correcting you fwiw
Posted on 7/13/22 at 7:48 am to slackster
quote:
True. I should have said .75% or higher is a lock.
Yes
The odd thing about all of this is that it isn’t just the US but other large countries are seeing inflation too.
The dollar is setting unprecedented levels as people chase safety.
S&P futures down 65
Posted on 7/13/22 at 7:48 am to slackster
Lol my $10k in ibonds going to do work
This post was edited on 7/13/22 at 8:00 am
Posted on 7/13/22 at 12:44 pm to slackster
quote:
Bigger issue, IMO, is 1.3% MoM increase, which is blistering hot, and it’s even .7% on core.
Just think how much it would be if we were going by 1979 factors.
quote:
Also, .75% increase is all but assured at the July meeting.
Agreed. And home loans will come to a screeching halt over August as potential buyers decide they can't handle the inflated market prices AND the rising interest rates.
And then think how that's going to impact credit card rates with people who have been maxxing out their cards in order to maintain their lifestyles through all this inflation.
And don't think for a moment that the Q2 numbers aren't going to show us in a recession (I'm speculating GDP growth being ~-2%). The hike and the Q2 report on top of June's numbers are going to cause businesses to tighten up in a big way. Hourly earning increases will likely go completely flat and we'll start to see layoffs.
Unless oil magically drops to below $50-$60 over the next month or two, we have some stagflation in our future.
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