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Guide to Data-Watching Tomorrow

The MSM will do their usual psy-ops of claiming that Election Day is rainbows and sunshine for Democrats, but I am giving you a guideline as to the concrete numbers to watch.

The consensus of EV X is that Trump has roughly tied the early voting in 6 out of 7 battleground states - Pennsylvania being the exception. This is not driven by overperformance in Republican voting; rather, this is driven by a steep decline in Democratic turnout.

And the 270-Electoral Vote question becomes: "Will these missing Democrats show up on Election Day?"

This makes Election Day data watching almost absurdly simple - if Republicans have a decently red Election Day, they should win! And the more red Election Day is, the better the odds Republicans have. On the other hand, if Democrats have a blue Election Day, they win - full stop.

There are three known states that will be giving out turnout updates.

1. Florida will post continuous live updates on turnout.
2. Georgia will post hourly updates in theory.
3. Nevada will post turnout data at 10 AM and 2 PM.

Of all these three states, Florida will be the one to watch when polls open at 7 AM ET. That's less than seven hours away as of writing! And you can watch it right at LINK . Toggle the "Election Day votes only" option.

While Florida is not a competitive state, Florida *will* give valuable insights as to whether Election Day portends to red voter behavior or not.

My instincts say that a comfortable win would be in sight would be if the Advantage Trump - when the "Election Day votes only" option is toggled - is around 20% (screenshot from 2020 attached). On the other hand, if it's closer to 15%, a victory might be possible but iffy. If it is below the current posted advantage of 9.45%, then Republicans are in trouble.

So to summarize:

* Election Day Advantage Trump ~20%: Amazing
* Election Day Advantage Trump ~15%: Close
* Election Day Advantage Trump 10% or less: Trouble

This metric will be volatile for the first hour or so but we should start having a good idea of where it's heading at 8 AM ET. So very early!

It should go without saying that this is a very broad guideline - projecting Florida's turnout performance onto other states is of limited use. There will be people who leak numbers, and I will be re-posting whatever useful turnout numbers I can find on X.

For Pennsylvania, the turnout numbers are key. Republicans must strongly outperform Democrats there. Scott Presler and others will likely be leaking some data, and I will interpret it to the best I can.

As for watching returns, be aware that some states count early votes first which are expected to trend blue (so-called "Blue Mirage" states). Others are expected to count - the Red Mirage states. Florida will be the quickest to count votes, and I believe it will first count mail votes from the bluer parts of the state. I am looking to match the approximate percentage gaps (albeit somewhat larger given blue NPAs) that the map says for each county - example screenshot attached