So O&G people.. how do we see the immediate reaction to Maduro ousted in the oil market?

Do we expect oil prices to change much?

I understand this affects BRICS countries most here, which is awesome, but just interested on how this changes this years outlook.

Also, do we see big US O&G companies start considering investing capital in Venezuela now that it’s not a port for China, Russia, Iran?

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Posted by tketaco

Sunnyside, Houston

Member since Jan 2010

21605 posts

Posted on 1/4/26 at 10:51 am to Yaboylsu63

Got it. I’ll tailor this to you specifically, based on what I already know:

You invest $2k–$4k/month

You like thematic plays (energy, defense, geopolitics)

You prefer ETF cores with selective stock tilts

You’re not day-trading, but you will add on dips or catalysts

I’ll assume a 6–36 month horizon (short-to-mid term geopolitical unwind ? longer-term rebuild).

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?? STRATEGY: “Venezuela Regime-Change” Portfolio Slice

This is not your whole portfolio — think 10–20% satellite allocation layered on top of VTI/VXUS/etc.

---

??? CORE BENEFICIARY: ENERGY (60%)

Anchor ETF (30–35%)

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund

Why:

Heavy exposure to Chevron & Exxon

Lower volatility than single-stock bets

Pays dividends while you wait

?? This is your sleep-at-night core

---

High-Conviction Stock Tilt (15–20%)

Chevron

Why Chevron specifically:

Only U.S. major already operating in Venezuela

First mover if sanctions fully unwind

Existing relationships + infrastructure knowledge

Dividend support if the thesis takes time

?? If any U.S. company wins early, it’s CVX.

---

Oil Services / Rebuild Play (10–15%)

VanEck Oil Services ETF

Why:

Venezuela needs drilling, rigs, pumps, pipelines

This benefits Halliburton, Schlumberger, Baker Hughes

These outperform after policy clarity

?? More volatile — but higher upside once contracts start

---

??? REFINING EDGE: HEAVY CRUDE (10–15%)

Best Fit

Valero Energy

Why:

Gulf Coast refiner

Built to process heavy sour crude

Venezuelan supply = margin expansion

Alternative ETF:

VanEck Oil Refiners ETF (if you want diversification)

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??? GEOPOLITICAL BACKSTOP: DEFENSE (10–15%)

Low-Drama Defense ETF

iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF

Why:

Captures Lockheed, Raytheon, Northrop

Defense flows increase during regime-change narratives

Works even if Venezuela drags out

?? This is your hedge if energy underperforms

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?? OPTIONAL VOLATILITY / HEDGE (5–10%)

Only if you want a macro hedge:

SPDR Gold Shares

Gold tends to:

Spike on geopolitical uncertainty

Pull back once stability returns

---

?? SAMPLE ALLOCATION (15% Portfolio Slice)

Asset %

XLE 30%
CVX 20%
OIH 15%
VLO 15%
ITA 10%
GLD (optional) 10%

---

?? TIMING RULES (IMPORTANT)

This is where people mess up.

Add on:

Sanctions relief headlines

U.S./Venezuela contract announcements

Oil services earnings beats (SLB/HAL)

Trim on:

Oil spikes >20% in short time

“Mission accomplished” political headlines

OPEC supply response

---

?? HARD TRUTHS (No BS)

Venezuela oil recovery = years, not months

Market may sell the news after initial pop

This is a rotation trade, not a forever hold

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