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Message
Job cuts surge in January - Challenger report
Posted on 2/5/26 at 7:01 am
Posted on 2/5/26 at 7:01 am
4
Posted on 2/5/26 at 7:06 am to The Egg
Feels like what is going to get worse?
Posted on 2/5/26 at 7:10 am to The Egg
ADP said 22K jobs gain.
We deported over 200K illegals who were working, most with SS#s and were counting in the official numbers.
Id say the job market is doing quite well.
For all the doomsayers, can someone answer this simple question.........
When has nominal wage growth (wage increase minus inflation) been on an 11 month roll in a down job market? People dont give raises for shats and giggles when there are plenty of bodies to replace the ones they have in place.
But keep whining about nefarious reports.....AI doesnt whine
We deported over 200K illegals who were working, most with SS#s and were counting in the official numbers.
Id say the job market is doing quite well.
For all the doomsayers, can someone answer this simple question.........
When has nominal wage growth (wage increase minus inflation) been on an 11 month roll in a down job market? People dont give raises for shats and giggles when there are plenty of bodies to replace the ones they have in place.
But keep whining about nefarious reports.....AI doesnt whine
Posted on 2/5/26 at 7:15 am to trinidadtiger
Well said. It’s amazing to watch people who live and die (emotionally) over every headline, poll, influencer, report, or article.
Can’t imagine how they are in their personal lives.
Can’t imagine how they are in their personal lives.
Posted on 2/5/26 at 9:18 am to trinidadtiger
quote:
Id say the job market is doing quite well.
quote:
When has nominal wage growth (wage increase minus inflation) been on an 11 month roll in a down job market? People dont give raises for shats and giggles when there are plenty of bodies to replace the ones they have in place.
Unemployment is still below the traditional average (from 1948 - 2025 it's ~5.67%), but it's been somewhat steady in its increase since 2023. Within just the last year we've seen tens of thousands of jobs cut at places like FedEx, UPS, Amazon, etc.
To answer your question with that as part of the context, I would postulate that businesses are cutting jobs but using some of that unspent labor money on raising wages on the employees they are keeping.
To go a bit further, jobs are a bit of a mixed bag at the moment. Job cuts fall to lowest level in 17 months; Highest December hiring since 2022! But at the same time YTD job cuts are the 7th highest since 1989
One thing I've been trying to keep an eye on in regards to jobs is AI. While cuts last year due to AI amounted to only ~4.5% of all job cuts, the amount of cuts stated as being due to AI rose by something like 10x from the 2023 number. At this point it could still be considered a boogeyman, but if gets only half of its potential there's going to be lots of IT people (code monkeys), accountants and clerical types out of work.
On the plus side, if they have the ability to learn different skills we could see the derth of certain blue collar jobs (welding, plumbers, etc) come to an end.
This post was edited on 2/5/26 at 9:20 am
Posted on 2/5/26 at 9:39 am to trinidadtiger
quote:
We deported over 200K illegals who were working, most with SS#s and were counting in the official numbers
Not sure I buy the ones deported were working jobs that woukd be counted in any official numbers.
Posted on 2/5/26 at 9:45 am to Bard
quote:
At this point it could still be considered a boogeyman,
I don't see how it's only a boogeyman. It's going to be massively disruptive but nobody knows exactly how, and I think that uncertainty lulls the average person into thinking it's not really going to happen. "I mean, if the experts can't agree then it's probably nothing."
I didn't know exactly what Hurricane Michael was going to do but I knew it was going to hammer a lot of stuff, and it did. AI will too, even if nobody can agree on exactly what that will look like. If I was young or mid career I'd be paying very, very close attention to AI job cut trends.
Posted on 2/5/26 at 9:56 am to Flats
quote:
I don't see how it's only a boogeyman. It's going to be massively disruptive but nobody knows exactly how, and I think that uncertainty lulls the average person into thinking it's not really going to happen.
There's been a path for new technology where potential is hyped about how it's going to change everything, and then the reality comes and it's either a bit of a dud or the timeframe for the change is far longer than was hyped.
Examples: The Segue, VR, EVs, Wind & Solar power.
While it is making definite inroads and the likelihood is that those inroads will increase, the reality in job losses hasn't yet reached the hype level, thus it could still be considered a boogeyman.
Posted on 2/5/26 at 9:58 am to Bard
quote:
While it is making definite inroads and the likelihood is that those inroads will increase, the reality in job losses hasn't yet reached the hype level, thus it could still be considered a boogeyman.
It seems like the people who are most convinced AI will take over many/most/all jobs have never used it. People who do use it are becoming disillusioned.
Posted on 2/5/26 at 9:59 am to Bard
quote:
There's been a path for new technology where potential is hyped about how it's going to change everything, and then the reality comes and it's either a bit of a dud or the timeframe for the change is far longer than was hyped.
And then on the other side there's the smartphone, the automobile, the internet, Amazon, personal computers, etc. Not every new tech meets the hype but many surpass it in ways we couldn't even imagine at the time. I'd bet AI is a lot closer to the internet than a Segway as far as disruption.
Posted on 2/5/26 at 10:01 am to The Egg
How many of those were illegals? Those don’t really count IMO
Posted on 2/5/26 at 10:02 am to The Egg
Is this the illegal Africans with a 65 IQ losing their daycares?
Posted on 2/5/26 at 10:07 am to trinidadtiger
quote:
But keep whining about nefarious reports.....AI doesnt whine
AI also doesn't buy goods and services or pay taxes, shite for brains. It does, however, suck up shite-tons of power, water and difficult to obtain resources. Enjoy the tradeoff from gainfully employed people to watching the draft come back to feed a war machine trying to build the better mouse trap.
Posted on 2/5/26 at 10:16 am to Flats
quote:
I'd bet AI is a lot closer to the internet than a Segway as far as disruption.
I agree, but remember that the internet's real impact in lots of areas wasn't truly felt for many years. For example, the first e-commerce sites started in 1994-1995 but online shopping was still largely niche until the 2010s (by 2017 online sales were still below 10% of retail sales, today it accounts for ~15%-17% of all retail sales although I think it's higher if you include things like auto-pay on recurring payments like subscriptions, mortgage payments, etc).
Posted on 2/5/26 at 10:30 am to 4cubbies
quote:
It seems like the people who are most convinced AI will take over many/most/all jobs have never used it. People who do use it are becoming disillusioned.
Yes and no. I work in IT and I know quite a few people who use it to write code, but the results are still at the point where you have to go through and proof-read the code yourself (at least from the readily available free platforms). That said, it's designed to improve itself and when we start silo'ing these systems into specific things (like writing in JavaScript or researching in LexisNexis, for examples), there's every reason to believe it will replace a lot of jobs.
A great example of the utility is doing searches now. Just a few years ago if you were doing a search on Google, Yahoo, Bing, etc. you might need to phrase your search in very specific ways to find the information you're looking for. Today you can just type in normal language and get very solid results.
On the other side of that though, it's become so deeply embedded in things that Microsoft has Copilot even in Notepad. fricking NOTEPAD!
Right now it can be cast in the light of how people were originally with smartphones: "I don't need all this extra stuff, I just want to make a phone call dammit" with it being very likely they will not only get used to AI being in everything but eventually depend on it like they do their phones.
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