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Message
Skubal wins his arbitration hearing
Posted on 2/5/26 at 2:13 pm
Posted on 2/5/26 at 2:13 pm
Detroit is run by morons apparently
Reigning two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal has won his landmark arbitration case against the Detroit Tigers reports ESPN
Skubal will be paid the $32 million he sought rather than the $19 million the Tigers filed in January.
The $32 million is the largest salary for a player in his arbitration years, surpassing the $31 million Juan Soto made in 2024.
The $13 million gap between Skubal's number and the team's number was the largest in arbitration history
Reigning two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal has won his landmark arbitration case against the Detroit Tigers reports ESPN
Skubal will be paid the $32 million he sought rather than the $19 million the Tigers filed in January.
The $32 million is the largest salary for a player in his arbitration years, surpassing the $31 million Juan Soto made in 2024.
The $13 million gap between Skubal's number and the team's number was the largest in arbitration history
5
Posted on 2/5/26 at 2:18 pm to LSUMJ
I dont really understand the arbitration thing
Posted on 2/5/26 at 2:22 pm to LSUMJ
quote:
Detroit is run by morons apparently
Reigning two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal has won his landmark arbitration case against the Detroit Tigers reports ESPN
Did the arbiters factor in the $38mil/year Detroit just gave Framber into their decision? You know, the left-hander that is "3" years older than Skubal who hasn't won two Cy Young awards.
Posted on 2/5/26 at 2:30 pm to Wayne Campbell
Without question they did. Skubal misjudged the market. He should have asked for 50.
Posted on 2/5/26 at 2:31 pm to LSUMJ
You realize they offered him a $50M/year 5 year deal right?
He wants ten years and is already 30+.
Because the dodgers will do dodgers things and agree to it it didn’t matter what the tigers offered in arbitration.
He wants ten years and is already 30+.
Because the dodgers will do dodgers things and agree to it it didn’t matter what the tigers offered in arbitration.
Posted on 2/5/26 at 2:37 pm to Cosmo
Baseball style arbitration is each side submits a number and the arbitrator chooses one, can't split the difference.
Theoretically it is supposed to encourage fair and good faith offers since if you completely lowball/ask way too much the arbitrator will pick the other side.
Theoretically it is supposed to encourage fair and good faith offers since if you completely lowball/ask way too much the arbitrator will pick the other side.
Posted on 2/5/26 at 2:38 pm to RollMFWave22
quote:
Baseball style arbitration is each side submits a number and the arbitrator chooses one, can't split the difference. Theoretically it is supposed to encourage fair and good faith offers since if you completely lowball/ask way too much the arbitrator will pick the other side.
I understand the process but why dont they have straightforward contracts?
Posted on 2/5/26 at 2:41 pm to tide06
quote:
You realize they offered him a $50M/year 5 year deal right?
He wants ten years and is already 30+.
Won't be 30 until after this season. He'll go to free agency and even if he doesn't get 10 years, he'll get 7 at $40+.
Posted on 2/5/26 at 2:48 pm to Cosmo
Ah, my mistake, misinterpreted your comment.
It's a compromise between the owners who want team control after investing in the development and players who want increased salaries after grinding through minors and making peanuts their first few years.
The two main reasons for it is too much volatility in baseball for NBA/NFL rookie scale contracts (cuts both ways: could sign a bum to a big contract or a superstar to a peanut deal) and helps small markets retain players for longer. Next CBA fight is primarily going to be about cap/floor but players also want to go to arbitration and FA quicker.
It's a compromise between the owners who want team control after investing in the development and players who want increased salaries after grinding through minors and making peanuts their first few years.
The two main reasons for it is too much volatility in baseball for NBA/NFL rookie scale contracts (cuts both ways: could sign a bum to a big contract or a superstar to a peanut deal) and helps small markets retain players for longer. Next CBA fight is primarily going to be about cap/floor but players also want to go to arbitration and FA quicker.
Posted on 2/5/26 at 2:49 pm to Cosmo
quote:
I understand the process but why dont they have straightforward contracts?
It's all part of the CBA between MLB and the union. Players need 6 years of service time before gaining free agency. Once a player has 3 years of service time, he is arbitration eligible, and gets to go through this process each of the next 3 years until he's a free agent. Of course, teams can choose to offer players a straightforward contract at any time. For instance, Jacob Wilson signed a 7 year, $70M contract with the A's this offseason after his rookie year, so he bypasses the arbitration process all together.
Posted on 2/5/26 at 2:59 pm to medtiger
quote:
For instance, Jacob Wilson signed a 7 year, $70M contract with the A's this offseason after his rookie year, so he bypasses the arbitration process all together.
It was actually becoming fairly common for teams to essentially buy out arbitration years. The Red Sox did it last season with several of their young guys: Roman Anthony, Rafaela, and Campbell were all signed to 8 year deals.
Posted on 2/5/26 at 3:01 pm to lurking
quote:
Skubal misjudged the market. He should have asked for 50.
Arbitration is not “the market”
Posted on 2/5/26 at 3:11 pm to ShaneTheLegLechler
quote:
Arbitration is not “the market”
Comparable player salaries (or lack thereof) is one of the major factors considered during arbitration. The market determined Framber Valdez and Dylan Cease are valued at 30mm+ AAV.
Would you suggest they are comparable to Skubal? I doubt it.
So yes, Skubal greatly undervalued himself based on “the market”.
Rare miss by Scott Boras.
Posted on 2/5/26 at 3:16 pm to lurking
It not an open market setting whatsoever, and players earn significantly more in that free agent setting than they do in arbitration.
Framber Valdez earned 18 mil in his last arb year for instance and just received the 3 year/115 mil deal. The double filing system and lack of open market bidding should make it obvious why earnings are suppressed in this. Arb salaries have never been representative of what a player would earn on a one year open market deal
Framber Valdez earned 18 mil in his last arb year for instance and just received the 3 year/115 mil deal. The double filing system and lack of open market bidding should make it obvious why earnings are suppressed in this. Arb salaries have never been representative of what a player would earn on a one year open market deal
This post was edited on 2/5/26 at 3:17 pm
Posted on 2/5/26 at 3:24 pm to Wayne Campbell
quote:
Won't be 30 until after this season. He'll go to free agency and even if he doesn't get 10 years, he'll get 7 at $40+.
Why would he turn down 250/5 for 280/7?
He’s gonna get 50/10 for $500m total from LA with two Tommy John surgeries under his belt already. Are you signing that deal as a GM for a limited salary team like the Tigers?
Posted on 2/5/26 at 3:28 pm to ShaneTheLegLechler
quote:
Arb salaries have never been representative of what a player would earn on a one year open market deal
No, but that wasn’t your argument. You said the market doesn’t factor into arb rulings and that’s objectively false.
Posted on 2/5/26 at 3:32 pm to tide06
quote:
He’s gonna get 50/10 for $500m total from LA with two Tommy John surgeries under his belt already. Are you signing that deal as a GM for a limited salary team like the Tigers?
There’s zero guarantees on what the financial system in MLB will look like on the other side of the next salary negotiations
Posted on 2/5/26 at 3:41 pm to ShaneTheLegLechler
quote:
There’s zero guarantees on what the financial system in MLB will look like on the other side of the next salary negotiations
Which is another reason why going the arbitration path for Detroit makes sense rather than signing a 50/10 now.
Posted on 2/5/26 at 3:52 pm to lurking
quote:
No, but that wasn’t your argument. You said the market doesn’t factor into arb rulings and that’s objectively false.
Open market free agent contracts are not used as a comp in arb hearings. The player comps that are used are other arb hearings in that same service year (so another pitcher with 5 service years in their last run through arb like Skubal)
Top players on their first run through arb are lucky to get 8-9 mil most of the time. Cody Bellinger has the record at 11 coming off an MVP.
Posted on 2/5/26 at 3:59 pm to tide06
I am saying there’s a pretty big degree of risk in Skubal turning down a lucrative extension now banking on LA (or whoever) throwing a bag of money at him in a year
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