Domain: tiger-web1.srvr.media3.us Matt Walsh discusses an often unmentioned wrinkle in murder statistics. | Political Talk
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Matt Walsh discusses an often unmentioned wrinkle in murder statistics.

Posted on 4/6/26 at 8:15 pm
Posted by Azkiger
Member since Nov 2016
27877 posts
Posted on 4/6/26 at 8:15 pm
I know our board "moderates" love to mention how much safer we are today than we were in the decades past, but we're not comparing apples to apples.

Matt Walsh highlights this in the YouTube clip below:



Seems the white man's medical advances have even allowed multiculturalism to be less deadly than it ought to be.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
474811 posts
Posted on 4/6/26 at 8:31 pm to
Except basically all violent crimes that can't be fixed by this are also down in kind, similar to other pathologies like teen pregnancy rates, abortion rates, etc.
Posted by TigerBaitOohHaHa
Member since Jan 2023
2024 posts
Posted on 4/6/26 at 8:32 pm to
honestly, this hadn't occurred to me. I figured they were just manipulating statistics.

Keeping this tidbit in my back pocket for future family gatherings
Posted by SallysHuman
Lady Palmetto Bug
Member since Jan 2025
20596 posts
Posted on 4/6/26 at 8:34 pm to
quote:

honestly, this hadn't occurred to me. I figured they were just manipulating statistics.


Why not both?
Posted by Sofaking2
Member since Apr 2023
20831 posts
Posted on 4/6/26 at 8:35 pm to
Overall capitalism has allowed the US to thrive and prosper. It’s allowed millions to lift themselves out of poverty. It’s why so many people from all over the world want to come here. If we can keep from becoming a socialist country things will continue to improve. The more socialism thrives the more desperate a society will become.
This post was edited on 4/6/26 at 8:36 pm
Posted by Azkiger
Member since Nov 2016
27877 posts
Posted on 4/6/26 at 8:39 pm to
Ah, the most notable board "moderate" appears. Wonderful.

quote:

Except basically all violent crimes that can't be fixed by this are also down in kind...


Not true. Matt Walsh, earlier in the video, goes over the stats. The increases in violent crimes started in the late 60s.

But if you want results beyond just Boston (which is what Matt Walsh covered in the video), check these out:

1966 : Aggravated assault in the US was 118 per 100,000 residents.

Today: Aggravated assault in the US is 475 per 100,000 residents.

Focusing on murder, which progs often do, is sneaky because many of those aggravated assaults that are taking place today would be deaths in the 1960s for the reasons Matt Walsh mentioned.
This post was edited on 4/6/26 at 8:42 pm
Posted by Rebel
Graceland
Member since Jan 2005
143422 posts
Posted on 4/6/26 at 8:41 pm to
SFP will not like this. He will have to reconcile facts with his belief in the documentary he watched with Mother in 89 about crack epidemic.
Posted by Speckhunter2012
Lake Charles
Member since Dec 2012
8570 posts
Posted on 4/6/26 at 8:46 pm to
quote:

If we can keep from becoming a socialist country things will continue to improve. The more socialism thrives the more desperate a society will become.


The leftists are in full force maneuvering to bring about Cloward-Piven.
Posted by N.O. via West-Cal
New Orleans
Member since Aug 2004
7829 posts
Posted on 4/6/26 at 8:53 pm to
Advances in medicine have undoubtedly converted some would-be homicides to aggravated assault, but is nowhere near enough to account for the significant drop in crime because violent crimes other than homicide are more numerous and they have also seen sharp declines.

I saw someone reference stats from 1966, but that’s about when the big increase in crime started so of course the numbers are lower. Crime went way up from the 60’s until peaking in the 90s. These stats are readily available and except for the “mostly peaceful protest” years around 2021, crime has plummeted for about 30 years. Still plenty of crime but on average, we have a lot less than we used to.
Posted by G2160
houston
Member since May 2013
2321 posts
Posted on 4/6/26 at 8:55 pm to
quote:

Except basically all violent crimes that can't be fixed by this are also down in kind, similar to other pathologies like teen pregnancy rates, abortion rates, etc.


The average age of female marriage in 1960 was 20.

5% of births were out of wedlock in 1960. It’s 40% today.
This post was edited on 4/6/26 at 8:58 pm
Posted by Azkiger
Member since Nov 2016
27877 posts
Posted on 4/6/26 at 8:59 pm to
quote:

Advances in medicine have undoubtedly converted some would-be homicides to aggravated assault, but is nowhere near enough to account for the significant drop in crime because violent crimes other than homicide are more numerous and they have also seen sharp declines.


According to the study Matt Walsh cited, yes. Actually it maps quite well.

US murder rates would be up to 5x higher than they would otherwise be if not for medical advances over the past 40 years (study was done in 2002).

Compare aggravated assault rates during that same time period and its up ~4x.

So even if you have similar murder rates, you still have 4-5x the rates of violence.
This post was edited on 4/6/26 at 9:01 pm
Posted by N.O. via West-Cal
New Orleans
Member since Aug 2004
7829 posts
Posted on 4/6/26 at 9:38 pm to
I’ve never seen any stats like that. Here is something along the lines of what I’ve seen everywhere I have looked:

“ The rate of aggravated assault fell from 16.5 per 1,000 persons in 1993 to 4.7 per 1,000 in 2024.”

Posted by Azkiger
Member since Nov 2016
27877 posts
Posted on 4/6/26 at 9:48 pm to
I'm confused. What are you disagreeing with?

Despite having similar murder rates, 1960s America had roughly 4x less aggravated assault.

There is a study done (cited in the Matt Walsh video) that suggests medical advanced between the 60s and 2002 have lowered the murder rate by up to 5x.

So even though it can be shown, here and there, that "murder rates" have dropped, that doesn't make our cities any less safe. In fact, our cities are a lot less safe than they were when they were 90-95%+ white (about 4-5x less safe). Which is unsurprising considering the murder rates of various racial demographics.

Basically, the short and sweet, is that multiculturalism has failed. It's less and less popular over time. It's time to pack it up.
Posted by jimmy the leg
Member since Aug 2007
43968 posts
Posted on 4/6/26 at 9:48 pm to
quote:

Except basically all violent crimes that can't be fixed by this are also down in kind


Like in DC?
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
474811 posts
Posted on 4/6/26 at 9:54 pm to
quote:

The increases in violent crimes started in the late 60s.

It really began a severe increase in the mid-70s and lasted through the mid-90s, along with most other social pathologies. Usually the peak will be in the early 1990s with a severe decline. Then you'll see the decrease flatlining around 2014 with a post-Covid spike, and in 2023 you'll see that post-Covid spike dramatically decrease.

quote:

1966 : Aggravated assault in the US was 118 per 100,000 residents.

Today: Aggravated assault in the US is 475 per 100,000 residents.

You're using the wrong framing.





It's not just crime





Mid-70s to mid-90s were hell on Earth in America.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
474811 posts
Posted on 4/6/26 at 9:59 pm to
quote:

The average age of female marriage in 1960 was 20.

You can sort the data by married/unmarried.

quote:

5% of births were out of wedlock in 1960. It’s 40% today.


That is the one social pathology that has clearly increased.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
474811 posts
Posted on 4/6/26 at 10:01 pm to
quote:

Like in DC?

From the mid-90s? Like everywhere.

And almost everywhere after the post-Covid spike, but there are some exceptions (like Baton Rouge).

*ETA:



Their initial increase was a little early, but it still fits the general pattern. Absolute peak in the early 90s. Huge decline thereafter. Stall in the mid-2010s. Increase post-Covid, and then a dramatic decrease.

You will find this same pattern in basically all cities.

This post was edited on 4/6/26 at 10:04 pm
Posted by N.O. via West-Cal
New Orleans
Member since Aug 2004
7829 posts
Posted on 4/6/26 at 10:04 pm to
“ confused. What are you disagreeing with?”

Mainly with the idea that crime rates are “up” over any relevant time frame when they’re down, almost unabated, for 30 years. You HAD a trend of rising crime from 1966 until about 1996 but that’s now long ago. I am open to but skeptical of the idea that most or all of the decrease in homicides is due to medicine when aggravated assaults are also down.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
474811 posts
Posted on 4/6/26 at 10:05 pm to
quote:

Basically, the short and sweet, is that multiculturalism has failed. It's less and less popular over time. It's time to pack it up.


Yeah if you ignore the data, sure. Was America more or less multicultural after the mid-1990s?
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
474811 posts
Posted on 4/6/26 at 10:06 pm to
quote:

when aggravated assaults are also down.


EVERYTHING is basically down other than unwed pregnancies.

Non-crime pathologies like unwed teen pregnancy and abortion are down, too.

American society and culture 1975-1995 was pretty shite.
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