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Your Way Too Early Hex Predictions
Posted on 9/10/16 at 12:19 am
Posted on 9/10/16 at 12:19 am
As we know from previous cycles, the CONCACAF Hexagonal is one of the most exciting World Cup qualification methods out there. Thirty matches between the 6 teams will determine who goes to Russia two summers from now. Fortunes can literally change in seconds in the Hex, as Mexico will tell you. The matchups are quite even, and the road environments are brutal. Only 3 teams can earn a guaranteed spot, as the fourth place team must qualify through a playoff with the 5th-place qualifier from Asia (which they would likely be favored in).
Hexagonal Schedule
Costa Rica @ Trinidad & Tobago
Mexico @ USA
Panama @ Honduras
Mexico @ Panama
Trinidad & Tobago @ Honduras
USA @ Costa Rica
Costa Rica @ Mexico
Honduras @ USA
Panama @ Trinidad & Tobago
Costa Rica @ Honduras
Mexico @ Trinidad & Tobago
USA @ Panama
Honduras @ Mexico
Panama @ Costa Rica
Trinidad & Tobago @ USA
Honduras @ Panama
Trinidad & Tobago @ Costa Rica
USA @ Mexico
Costa Rica @ USA
Honduras @ Trinidad & Tobago
Panama @ Mexico
Mexico @ Costa Rica
Trinidad & Tobago @ Panama
USA @ Honduras
Honduras @ Costa Rica
Panama @ USA
Trinidad & Tobago @ Mexico
Costa Rica @ Panama
Mexico @ Honduras
USA @ Trinidad & Tobago
My Predicted Table
1st United States 7-1-2 23 Pts
2nd Mexico 5-3-2 17 Pts
3rd Costa Rica 4-2-4 16 Pts
4th Honduras 3-4-3 12 Pts
5th Panama 3-5-2 11 Pts
6th Trinidad & Tobago 1-8-1 4 Pts
USA
Results: Win, Draw, Win, Win, Win, Draw, Win, Loss, Win, Win
Qualifying Clinched: Win vs. Costa Rica
A young, hungry American team continues the trend of performing very well in the Hex. I think we get all 15 home points again and win a few on the road. We are very fortunate to have our schedule set up to where our away fixtures are always a few days after a home fixture, so Jurgen can have the men train in an environment that replicates the away fixture. I think we lose to Honduras because we'll have already qualified by that point, and Honduras will see that game as a must-win. Our early schedule is tough, but I think we'll exceed expectation and get 4 points from the first 2 games.
Mexico
Results: Loss, Loss, Draw, Win, Win, Draw, Win, Loss, Win, Win
Qualifying Clinched: Win vs. Trinidad & Tobago
Call me crazy, but I think Mexico struggles through the Hex again this cycle. They've shown time and time again that they often let bad results compound on each other, and winnable games turn into draws or even losses. The pressure of the Confederations Cup won't help either. The 7-0 drubbing at the hands of Chile won't be forgotten by the ruthless Mexican media, and an opening loss to the US in Columbus could start El Tri's campaign in a very bad way. I do think they'll eventually get it together and finish 2nd with good results down the stretch. Their schedule starts tough, but finishes pretty favorably.
Costa Rica
Results: Draw, Draw, Draw, Win, Win, Win, Loss, Win, Draw, Loss
Qualifying Clinched: Draw vs. Honduras
Costa Rica is inconsistent as hell, but at their best, they can beat anyone, as they've shown in the past two years. They'll have some good and bad surprises, finishing just behind Mexico for the third automatic qualifying spot.
Honduras
Results: Draw, Win, Loss, Loss, Loss, Draw, Win, Win, Draw, Loss
Qualifying Clinched: Win in playoff vs. 5th-place AFC team
It's Honduras, so it won't be pretty, but I think they'll get a big result when it matters (like a win over the US) and squeak into the playoff over Panama. No World Cup is complete without Honduras pissing everyone off with their crappy, dirty play, and they'll be back in Russia to get wiped out in the group stage again.
Panama
Results: Draw, Win, Loss, Loss, Loss, Draw, Loss, Win, Loss, Win
Qualifying Clinched: N/A
Panama has never qualified for the World Cup, and unfortunately I think that trend will continue. The Canaleros do well in Gold Cups, but not in the Hex, and I think Honduras just edges them out for that playoff spot, to the delight of orthopedic surgeons everywhere.
Trinidad & Tobago
Results: Draw, Loss, Win, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss
Qualifying Clinched: N/A
Someone has to be the Hex punching bag, and I think the inexperienced Soca Warriors fill that role this time. They showed flashes of quality in the Gold Cup, but are too inconsistent to get results against the big boys in CONCACAF, and I think the Hex eats them alive. They are definitely a team on the rise, though, and I expect them to qualify before Canada at this point. They'll be better from this experience in the next Hex.
The Hex is so unpredictable, I expect many of these predictions to end up wrong, maybe even horrendously wrong. But that's what makes predicting early on so much fun when we look back next October when the Hex is finished to see how we did.
Enough of me. What are y'all predicting the Hex has in store for us this time? Predict every game if you want, or just the final standings.
Hexagonal Schedule
Costa Rica @ Trinidad & Tobago
Mexico @ USA
Panama @ Honduras
Mexico @ Panama
Trinidad & Tobago @ Honduras
USA @ Costa Rica
Costa Rica @ Mexico
Honduras @ USA
Panama @ Trinidad & Tobago
Costa Rica @ Honduras
Mexico @ Trinidad & Tobago
USA @ Panama
Honduras @ Mexico
Panama @ Costa Rica
Trinidad & Tobago @ USA
Honduras @ Panama
Trinidad & Tobago @ Costa Rica
USA @ Mexico
Costa Rica @ USA
Honduras @ Trinidad & Tobago
Panama @ Mexico
Mexico @ Costa Rica
Trinidad & Tobago @ Panama
USA @ Honduras
Honduras @ Costa Rica
Panama @ USA
Trinidad & Tobago @ Mexico
Costa Rica @ Panama
Mexico @ Honduras
USA @ Trinidad & Tobago
My Predicted Table
1st United States 7-1-2 23 Pts
2nd Mexico 5-3-2 17 Pts
3rd Costa Rica 4-2-4 16 Pts
4th Honduras 3-4-3 12 Pts
5th Panama 3-5-2 11 Pts
6th Trinidad & Tobago 1-8-1 4 Pts
USA
Results: Win, Draw, Win, Win, Win, Draw, Win, Loss, Win, Win
Qualifying Clinched: Win vs. Costa Rica
A young, hungry American team continues the trend of performing very well in the Hex. I think we get all 15 home points again and win a few on the road. We are very fortunate to have our schedule set up to where our away fixtures are always a few days after a home fixture, so Jurgen can have the men train in an environment that replicates the away fixture. I think we lose to Honduras because we'll have already qualified by that point, and Honduras will see that game as a must-win. Our early schedule is tough, but I think we'll exceed expectation and get 4 points from the first 2 games.
Mexico
Results: Loss, Loss, Draw, Win, Win, Draw, Win, Loss, Win, Win
Qualifying Clinched: Win vs. Trinidad & Tobago
Call me crazy, but I think Mexico struggles through the Hex again this cycle. They've shown time and time again that they often let bad results compound on each other, and winnable games turn into draws or even losses. The pressure of the Confederations Cup won't help either. The 7-0 drubbing at the hands of Chile won't be forgotten by the ruthless Mexican media, and an opening loss to the US in Columbus could start El Tri's campaign in a very bad way. I do think they'll eventually get it together and finish 2nd with good results down the stretch. Their schedule starts tough, but finishes pretty favorably.
Costa Rica
Results: Draw, Draw, Draw, Win, Win, Win, Loss, Win, Draw, Loss
Qualifying Clinched: Draw vs. Honduras
Costa Rica is inconsistent as hell, but at their best, they can beat anyone, as they've shown in the past two years. They'll have some good and bad surprises, finishing just behind Mexico for the third automatic qualifying spot.
Honduras
Results: Draw, Win, Loss, Loss, Loss, Draw, Win, Win, Draw, Loss
Qualifying Clinched: Win in playoff vs. 5th-place AFC team
It's Honduras, so it won't be pretty, but I think they'll get a big result when it matters (like a win over the US) and squeak into the playoff over Panama. No World Cup is complete without Honduras pissing everyone off with their crappy, dirty play, and they'll be back in Russia to get wiped out in the group stage again.
Panama
Results: Draw, Win, Loss, Loss, Loss, Draw, Loss, Win, Loss, Win
Qualifying Clinched: N/A
Panama has never qualified for the World Cup, and unfortunately I think that trend will continue. The Canaleros do well in Gold Cups, but not in the Hex, and I think Honduras just edges them out for that playoff spot, to the delight of orthopedic surgeons everywhere.
Trinidad & Tobago
Results: Draw, Loss, Win, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss
Qualifying Clinched: N/A
Someone has to be the Hex punching bag, and I think the inexperienced Soca Warriors fill that role this time. They showed flashes of quality in the Gold Cup, but are too inconsistent to get results against the big boys in CONCACAF, and I think the Hex eats them alive. They are definitely a team on the rise, though, and I expect them to qualify before Canada at this point. They'll be better from this experience in the next Hex.
The Hex is so unpredictable, I expect many of these predictions to end up wrong, maybe even horrendously wrong. But that's what makes predicting early on so much fun when we look back next October when the Hex is finished to see how we did.
Enough of me. What are y'all predicting the Hex has in store for us this time? Predict every game if you want, or just the final standings.
This post was edited on 9/10/16 at 12:21 am
3
Posted on 9/10/16 at 12:30 am to Michael Stein
The only real prediction to make is which team will we inadvertently send to the World Cup. Last time it was Mexico with Zusi, 2010 it was Honduras with Bornstein.
Posted on 9/10/16 at 7:26 am to Michael Stein
(no message)
This post was edited on 10/13/25 at 10:34 pm
Posted on 9/10/16 at 8:22 am to GeauxTigers2020
Posted on 9/10/16 at 9:01 pm to BraveTiger225
I'd be genuinely surprised if we win at Costa Rica.
Posted on 9/10/16 at 10:53 pm to Sheep
quote:
I'd be genuinely surprised if we win at Costa Rica.
I'd be surprised if we draw there.
Posted on 9/11/16 at 11:45 am to Broski
This schedule should set us up for a good run at the beginning. I expect 10 points from the first 5 games. That's three wins at home plus one draw on the road. More than 10 would be great, 9-10 would be OK, and less than that would be a problem.
Here is how the past Hexes have gone: 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014
We have only dropped points once at home in the last three Hexes (18 games) and that happened after we had clinched our spot (Costa Rica in 2009). Dropping points in one or two home games is not a big deal if we match them with wins on the road (T&T, Panama).
17 points has always been safe and only once has 4th place been higher than 14 points.
Here is how the past Hexes have gone: 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014
We have only dropped points once at home in the last three Hexes (18 games) and that happened after we had clinched our spot (Costa Rica in 2009). Dropping points in one or two home games is not a big deal if we match them with wins on the road (T&T, Panama).
17 points has always been safe and only once has 4th place been higher than 14 points.
This post was edited on 9/11/16 at 11:49 am
Posted on 9/11/16 at 11:58 am to NOTORlOUSD
Yeah, it's damn near impossible for a squad with our talent pool to not qualify out of the hex... It's so forgiving the way it's set up.
Posted on 9/11/16 at 12:29 pm to Broski
I do think the Hex is a very fair way of qualifying. You get 10 games to prove you belong, and everyone plays the same teams home and away. Whereas in a confederation like Africa, a bad draw can kill you. I think Egypt has drawn Ghana like 3 times in a row.
Posted on 9/11/16 at 1:02 pm to Michael Stein
USA wins the Hex.
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