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Message
07 Charles Scott and Keiland Williams: A Sensitive Analysis
Posted on 8/24/08 at 1:35 pm
Posted on 8/24/08 at 1:35 pm
It has become de riguer to cite the fact that Charles Scott averaged 7.2 ypc last season, while Keiland only averaged 6.8 ypc, as if that single statistic demonstrates some profound underlying truth. It doesn't. As a metric of contribution, the season yards per carry average is far too gross, too coarse. As Gary Crowton himself highlighted earlier this month in describing Hester, season average YPC is an inadequate measure of a back's worth to his team.
A more accurate assessment of Scott and Charles' respective contributions to the 2007 season can be gleaned by examining their performance on a game by game basis.
THE STATISTICS
MSU (unranked)
K. Williams 7 21 3 18 2 13 2.6
Charles Scott 3 5 1 4 0 5 1.3
VT (#9)
K. Williams 7 127 1 126 2 67 18.0
Charles Scott 4 24 0 24 0 14 6.0
MTSU (unranked)
K. Williams 5 30 0 30 0 11 6.0
Charles Scott 3 17 0 17 0 7 5.7
SC (#12)
K. Williams 7 33 0 33 0 14 4.7
Charles Scott 1 7 0 7 0 7 7.0
Tulane (unranked)
K. Williams 4 21 2 19 0 14 4.8
Charles Scott 6 53 0 53 2 35 8.8
Florida (#9)
K. Williams 9 52 6 46 1 21 5.1
Charles Scott 4 9 0 9 0 4 2.2
UK (#17)
K. Williams 1 5 0 5 0 5 5.0
Charles Scott 7 94 0 94 2 55 13.4
AU (#18)
K. Williams 1 6 0 6 0 6 6.0
Charles Scott 5 30 2 28 0 17 5.6
Bama (#17)
K. Williams 3 24 0 24 0 15 8.0
Richard Murphy 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
La Tech (unranked)
K. Williams 4 30 1 29 0 15 7.2
Charles Scott 5 15 2 13 0 12 2.6
Ole Miss (unranked)
K. Williams 5 41 0 41 1 21 8.2
Charles Scott 3 66 0 66 1 29 22.0
Arkansas (unranked)
K. Williams 10 55 8 47 0 24 4.7
Charles Scott 1 4 0 4 0 4 4.0
Tennessee (#14)
K. Williams 5 48 14 34 0 27 6.8
Charles Scott - No carries
OSU (#1)
K. Williams 2 20 0 20 0 10 10.0
Charles Scott 2 6 0 6 0 5 3.0
ANALYSIS
The statistics above yeild several interesting observations. Firts of all, despite the media's fondness for proclaiming that we employed running back by committee, it wasn't so. Jacob Hester was the featured back. As you can tell, Williams and Scott had comparatively few carries in most games. The limited number of carries contributes to their gaudy YPC averages.
That being said, I think the data demonstrates that Williams had a greater positive impact on the 2007 season. Viz.:
Williams outgained Scott in 6 of 8 games against ranked opponents.
Williams outgained Scott in 6 of 9 games against SEC opponents
(The two observations above, taken together, lead to the conclusion that Scott had some of his best games against lesser competition, namely Ole Miss and Tulane).
Williams had better YPC averages in 10 of 14 games. (Which demonstrates that Scott's season YPC advantage essentially stems from two anomolous games - KY (13.4 YPC) and Ole Miss (20 YPC).)
CONCLUSIONS
When I compiled the data, my initial reaction was shock at how reliant we were on Hester. Beyond that, parsing of the statistics confirmed my suspicion that Williams was a more valuable contributor last season. That being said, Williams wasn't vastly better than Scott. It is abundantly clear that, in order for the rushing game to be effective this season, we need to find a replacement for Hester's production. The staff may conclude that Scott, due to his durable, physical running style, is best suited to play the role of the featured, grinding "every down" back, while Keiland will continue to be utilized as a game breaker.
A more accurate assessment of Scott and Charles' respective contributions to the 2007 season can be gleaned by examining their performance on a game by game basis.
THE STATISTICS
MSU (unranked)
K. Williams 7 21 3 18 2 13 2.6
Charles Scott 3 5 1 4 0 5 1.3
VT (#9)
K. Williams 7 127 1 126 2 67 18.0
Charles Scott 4 24 0 24 0 14 6.0
MTSU (unranked)
K. Williams 5 30 0 30 0 11 6.0
Charles Scott 3 17 0 17 0 7 5.7
SC (#12)
K. Williams 7 33 0 33 0 14 4.7
Charles Scott 1 7 0 7 0 7 7.0
Tulane (unranked)
K. Williams 4 21 2 19 0 14 4.8
Charles Scott 6 53 0 53 2 35 8.8
Florida (#9)
K. Williams 9 52 6 46 1 21 5.1
Charles Scott 4 9 0 9 0 4 2.2
UK (#17)
K. Williams 1 5 0 5 0 5 5.0
Charles Scott 7 94 0 94 2 55 13.4
AU (#18)
K. Williams 1 6 0 6 0 6 6.0
Charles Scott 5 30 2 28 0 17 5.6
Bama (#17)
K. Williams 3 24 0 24 0 15 8.0
Richard Murphy 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
La Tech (unranked)
K. Williams 4 30 1 29 0 15 7.2
Charles Scott 5 15 2 13 0 12 2.6
Ole Miss (unranked)
K. Williams 5 41 0 41 1 21 8.2
Charles Scott 3 66 0 66 1 29 22.0
Arkansas (unranked)
K. Williams 10 55 8 47 0 24 4.7
Charles Scott 1 4 0 4 0 4 4.0
Tennessee (#14)
K. Williams 5 48 14 34 0 27 6.8
Charles Scott - No carries
OSU (#1)
K. Williams 2 20 0 20 0 10 10.0
Charles Scott 2 6 0 6 0 5 3.0
ANALYSIS
The statistics above yeild several interesting observations. Firts of all, despite the media's fondness for proclaiming that we employed running back by committee, it wasn't so. Jacob Hester was the featured back. As you can tell, Williams and Scott had comparatively few carries in most games. The limited number of carries contributes to their gaudy YPC averages.
That being said, I think the data demonstrates that Williams had a greater positive impact on the 2007 season. Viz.:
Williams outgained Scott in 6 of 8 games against ranked opponents.
Williams outgained Scott in 6 of 9 games against SEC opponents
(The two observations above, taken together, lead to the conclusion that Scott had some of his best games against lesser competition, namely Ole Miss and Tulane).
Williams had better YPC averages in 10 of 14 games. (Which demonstrates that Scott's season YPC advantage essentially stems from two anomolous games - KY (13.4 YPC) and Ole Miss (20 YPC).)
CONCLUSIONS
When I compiled the data, my initial reaction was shock at how reliant we were on Hester. Beyond that, parsing of the statistics confirmed my suspicion that Williams was a more valuable contributor last season. That being said, Williams wasn't vastly better than Scott. It is abundantly clear that, in order for the rushing game to be effective this season, we need to find a replacement for Hester's production. The staff may conclude that Scott, due to his durable, physical running style, is best suited to play the role of the featured, grinding "every down" back, while Keiland will continue to be utilized as a game breaker.
This post was edited on 8/24/08 at 2:06 pm
11
Posted on 8/24/08 at 1:36 pm to The312
the way you laid out your stats fricking sucks dude. edit that shite to make it sensible
Posted on 8/24/08 at 1:38 pm to The312
i only read the first sentence and i felt the need to give my not-so-sensitive analysis.
all those stats don't mean shite. hester had the the majority of playing time.
what matters at this point is what they do in practice and the first couple of games.
all those stats don't mean shite. hester had the the majority of playing time.
what matters at this point is what they do in practice and the first couple of games.
Posted on 8/24/08 at 1:38 pm to The312
Good stuff, thanks for taking the time to break the numbers down.
Posted on 8/24/08 at 1:41 pm to NorfolkVATiger
i dont think either had enough carries to really determine who is the better RB.
i think both can be very good if given 15-20 carries a game.
i think both can be very good if given 15-20 carries a game.
Posted on 8/24/08 at 1:44 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
the way you laid out your stats fricking sucks dude.
Very little I can do about that. In the post field, the columns are alinged. However, when the post is actually pushed to the site, they alignment is skewed.
It's not that difficult to comprehend. It's standard reporting format for RB's:
No Gain Loss Net TD Lg Avg
Posted on 8/24/08 at 1:47 pm to The312
Why don't we just say that we are loaded in the backfield and who ever the coaches decide on, is the right one. They see them in practice everyday and we don't. Ya'll are arguing over which gorgeous girl you should take out.
Posted on 8/24/08 at 1:47 pm to The312
quote:
Williams had better YPC averages in 10 of 14 games.
care to say the difference in YPC in the games Williams led?
most games its percentage points
BTW your observations have been talked about for a whole year now. Old news
This post was edited on 8/24/08 at 1:49 pm
Posted on 8/24/08 at 1:55 pm to The312
How about we do this after 08.. 
Posted on 8/24/08 at 2:01 pm to The312
I hope you faxed a copy to Miles and Crowton. I'm sure they will give it the attention it deserves.
Posted on 8/24/08 at 2:09 pm to roygu
quote:
BTW your observations have been talked about for a whole year now
LMAO. That's amazing, considering most of the data isn't even a "whole" year old.
The board is prescient, apparently.
Moreover, no post that I've seen over the last few months has broken down the game by game performance of Keiland and Scott. Rather, most just recite the YPC mantra or use insufficient anecdotal evidence.
Posted on 8/24/08 at 2:16 pm to The312
Hunh?
Posted on 8/24/08 at 2:20 pm to The312
quote:
Very little I can do about that
you can type it out
12 carries for 120 yards (10 ypc)
not hard
Posted on 8/24/08 at 2:28 pm to The312
quote:
LMAO. That's amazing, considering most of the data isn't even a "whole" year old.
this information was talked about during the course of last season, and all offseason. So yeah, almost a whole year old
quote:
Moreover, no post that I've seen over the last few months has broken down the game by game performance of Keiland and Scott. Rather, most just recite the YPC mantra or use insufficient anecdotal evidenc
being the scientist you are, maybe you can explain
the difference in yardage of :
(KW) (CS)
6.0 : 5.7 YPC vs MTSU
6.0 : 5.6 YPC vs AUB
4.7: 4.0 YPC vs ARK
anyone can twist numbers into what they want
which makes this statement hilarious:
quote:
Williams had better YPC averages in 10 of 14 games. (Which demonstrates that Scott's season YPC advantage essentially stems from two anomolous games - KY (13.4 YPC) and Ole Miss (20 YPC).)
FWIW,
Keiland ran twice for 20 yards vs OSU, for a 10.0 YPC
and had 18.0 YPC vs Va Tech
so ill give you CS vs KEN and OM, but you have to give these 2 games for KW
so basically what I am saying, is Keiland Williams has no edge
This post was edited on 8/24/08 at 2:30 pm
Posted on 8/24/08 at 2:28 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
you can type it out
12 carries for 120 yards (10 ypc)
not hard
Let me get this straight. You want me to write out every statistic in prose because you are either too remedial or sluggardly to decipher standard FB stat lines?
One might be justified in concluding that, after 115,513 posts on this site (in case you are you having trouble interpretting that number, it's one hundred and fifteen thousand, five hundred and thirteen posts), you would be proficient in reading the board. My error.
Posted on 8/24/08 at 2:33 pm to The312
you spent a lot time on that, better you than me. I'm fine with any back starting, but CS will play more b/c of his combination of blocking and running skills.
Posted on 8/24/08 at 2:37 pm to horndog
quote:
so basically what I am saying, is Keiland Williams has no edge
Dude, I said that KW wasn't vastly better and even stated that the staff might conclude that CS is a better Hester replacement.
I am really not trying to decide the CS-KW debate. I just got tired of hearing the 7.2-6.8 thing in every thread.
Posted on 8/24/08 at 2:40 pm to The312
quote:
I am really not trying to decide the CS-KW debate. I just got tired of hearing the 7.2-6.8 thing in every thread.
your statements(KW out gained in 10 of 14 games and CS upped his YPC because of 2 games) makes it sound like you are saying KW had a more impressive year
go back and read it, im not making it up. You said it
Posted on 8/24/08 at 2:44 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
makes it sound like you are saying KW had a more impressive year
I really do think that Keiland was the more valuable contributor last year. And I think that the statistics bear that out when examined caefully. But I don't think the difference was massive, as I admitted. And I also stated that the staff might conclude that CS is better suited to be the every down back because of his durability.
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