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I called Trump winning Michigan on 9/23/16
Posted on 11/9/16 at 1:48 am
Posted on 11/9/16 at 1:48 am
quote:
-Now for my pick, and I am big on this one. Michigan. I am calling it now - if Trump gets to 270+, it will be Michigan that puts him over the finish line. There are two big reasons why:
A) The primary. The polls had Hillary winning Michigan by 21 points, but Bernie pulled a major upset and won the state by 1 point. There is a chance the polls are overstating Hillary's support again. Additionally, the GOP primary pulled in 1.324 million voters (up from 2012's 997K) to the Dem primary's 1.194 million voters, a difference of 130K votes.
B) The polls. There has not been a major poll taken in Michigan that has found Hillary with a lead larger than 6 points since the end of July. That is pretty unique when you compare Michigan to the other "light blue" states. Further, there have been no polls taken in Michigan with a sample entirely taken after Hillary's 9/11 collapse. My personal theory is that there may have been polls taken, but not released to the public because they did not fit the desired narrative of the pollster. The 3 most recent Michigan polls have Clinton +3, Clinton +1, and a tie. And keep in mind, none of these have a completely post-9/11 sample.
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