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re: QB Draft Opinion
Posted on 7/23/19 at 10:19 am to Tiger Voodoo
Posted on 7/23/19 at 10:19 am to Tiger Voodoo
quote:
Again, you act like QB is the only spot where you could draft a guy earkybthat doesn’t pay off
No but it’s the only position that is easy to replace those points in a meaningful way on the waiver wire
quote:
Taking Mahomes in the back half of the first this year is absolutely a viable strategy, and saying otherwise is just going conventional and unwilling to think outside the box
Taking QBs high is a very old school philosophy. Most people have realized the flaw in it and it’s flipped the opposite way. Like I’m glad you’re happy you took him but don’t act like you’re a savant for picking a QB in the first
This post was edited on 7/23/19 at 10:22 am
1
Posted on 7/23/19 at 10:23 am to wildtigercat93
quote:
No but it’s the only position that is easy to replace those points in a meaningful way on the waiver wire
On the waiver wire maybe.
But while other teams are taking QBs in droves in the middle to late rounds you can be stocking up on position players with very good value.
quote:
Taking QBs high is a very old school philosophy. Most people have realized the flaw in it and it’s flipped the opposite way
It flipped the other way a decade ago.
Waiting on QBs is now the old school philosophy. Perhaps it’s time to flip back
Or perhaps Mahomes is just the exception to the rule
This post was edited on 7/23/19 at 10:26 am
Posted on 7/23/19 at 10:27 am to Nole Man
quote:
Nole Man
This post paints the picture pretty well in why you shouldn't overpay for the top QBs. I'll add to it.
Here's the top 8 QBs from 2018 for the fantasy playoffs, Weeks 13-17:
1. Josh Allen
2. Pat Mahomes
3. Deshaun Watson
4. Matt Ryan
5. Dak Prescott
6. Lamar Jackson
7. Big Ben
8. Aaron Rodgers
9. Jameis Winston
10. Russell Wilson
At least 4 of them (in bold) you probably could've snagged off waivers and rode them to a championship. Possibly 5, but I can't remember what Matt Ryan's ownership percentages were last year.
Here are the top 10 RBs and WRs during that span (1/2 PPR):
1. Derrick Henry/DeAndre Hopkins
2. CHristian McCaffrey/Antonio Brown
3. Chris Carson/Julio Jones
4. Saquon Barkley/Mike Evans
5. Damien Williams/Devante Adams
6. Dalvin Cook/Julian Edelman
7. Joe Mixon/TY Hilton
8. Ezekiel Elliot/Juju Smith Schuster
9. Jordan Howard/Robby Anderson
10. Alvin Kamara/Jarvis Landry
Nearly all of those guys were drafted (and top 5 rounds at that) The only 2 out of those I think you could've had off waivers are Robby Anderson and Damien Williams. And Damien is only because of a crazy mid-season cut of Kareem Hunt, letting him slip into the starting role of the number 1 offense. That's way outside the norm, so I'm hesitant to even count him.
So to sum, nearly half the top 10 QBs from the fantasy playoffs could be had off the waivers. Only 5-10% of the top 10 RBs/Wrs could be had off waivers depending how you count Damien Williams.
Posted on 7/23/19 at 10:31 am to Neauxla_Tiger
Gotta make it to the playoffs first baw
Posted on 7/23/19 at 10:32 am to Tiger Voodoo
quote:
But while other teams are taking QBs in droves in the middle to late rounds you can be stocking up on position players with very good value.
The success rate of those QBs in those rounds >>>>>> the success rate of the late round picks at RB and WR
And it’s likely that talent pool has already been drained heavily if that many teams are passing on QBs that early.
quote:
Waiting on QBs is now the old school philosophy. Perhaps it’s time to flip back Or perhaps Mahomes is just the exception to the rule
Posted on 7/23/19 at 10:40 am to Tiger Voodoo
quote:
Gotta make it to the playoffs first baw
Same analysis can be used for any week you want. Random waiver wire fodder QBs put up top weeks all the time, every year. Not so for other positions
Let's try top 12 QBs for Weeks 2-4
1. Matt Ryan
2. Pat mahoems
3. Jared Goff
4. Deshaun Watson
5. Ben Roethlisberger
6. Kirk Cousins
7. Drew Brees
8. Blake Bortles
9. Andy Dalton
10. Mitch Trubisky
11. Matt Stafford
12. Phillip Rivers
Every one in bold either went 9th round or later OR undrafted. That's 9 of 12
And yes, Mahomes is a high draft pick now, but hew as an unknown in 2018 and was a 10th round ADPThis post was edited on 7/23/19 at 10:51 am
Posted on 7/23/19 at 10:40 am to Tiger Voodoo
quote:
But while other teams are taking QBs in droves in the middle to late rounds you can be stocking up on position players with very good value.
But you're losing value on the front end.
Instead of taking a mike Thomas/julio in the first and a brees/cam in the 8th, you're taking a Mahomes in the 1st and a marv jones/Courtland Sutton in the 8th.
Which is the bigger drop-off? Mahomes to brees/cam or Thomas/julio to marv Jones/Sutton?
Posted on 7/23/19 at 10:45 am to OneMoreTime
If he goes 5000 and 50 again, probably not much difference
And that’s assuming you don’t hit on a Tyler Boyd, Mike Williams, or Golloday in the later rounds.
But obviously that’s the gamble. And I’m cool with that
And that’s assuming you don’t hit on a Tyler Boyd, Mike Williams, or Golloday in the later rounds.
But obviously that’s the gamble. And I’m cool with that
Posted on 7/23/19 at 10:46 am to Neauxla_Tiger
quote:
Random waiver wire fodder QBs put up top weeks all the time, every year. Not so for other positions
Well yeah but you have to find the right one. And you have to get them before the seven other guys that waited on QB do too.
It isn’t as simple as saying just wait on a QB and you’re guaranteed top 5 production anyway. That’s all I’m saying.
The odds may be better but you are still taking risk at a position.
And in a 6 pt passing TD league where I took Mahomes, I’m happy to not have to scramble to fill that position
This post was edited on 7/23/19 at 10:48 am
Posted on 7/23/19 at 10:49 am to wildtigercat93
Awesome meme
If we’d start the damn draft already I wouldn’t even be posting about this dumb shite anymore.
This is just killing time 
If we’d start the damn draft already I wouldn’t even be posting about this dumb shite anymore.
This is just killing time
Posted on 7/23/19 at 10:56 am to Tiger Voodoo
I edited to add in another range where 9 of the 12 QBs were 9th round or later or undrafted.
Oh yeah, I agree. I'm just making the point that if you play it right, waiting on QB is very viable. Obviously with all things fantasy you need some luck to fall your way, but it's at least POSSIBLE to stream QBs and have success. Streaming any other position is very painful
And you took him in the double digit rounds and fared better than the guy that paid a 2nd rounder for Aaron Rodgers
quote:
It isn’t as simple as saying just wait on a QB and you’re guaranteed top 5 production anyway. That’s all I’m saying.
Oh yeah, I agree. I'm just making the point that if you play it right, waiting on QB is very viable. Obviously with all things fantasy you need some luck to fall your way, but it's at least POSSIBLE to stream QBs and have success. Streaming any other position is very painful
quote:
And in a 6 pt passing TD league where I took Mahomes, I’m happy to not have to scramble to fill that position
And you took him in the double digit rounds and fared better than the guy that paid a 2nd rounder for Aaron Rodgers
Posted on 7/23/19 at 11:06 am to Neauxla_Tiger
quote:
Oh yeah, I agree. I'm just making the point that if you play it right, waiting on QB is very viable. Obviously with all things fantasy you need some luck to fall your way, but it's at least POSSIBLE to stream QBs and have success.
Oh man I certainly wasn’t trying to say it wasn’t viable. Sorry if it came off that way. I’m just saying while risky, a QB like Mahomes early (obviously if he puts up similar numbers) can be viable as well.
I’m just not a fan of assuming that everyone that has a great year has to crash back down to earth. If the situation is right, I’ll bank on another big year, and I can’t see many reasons to think PM will fall off some huge production cliff.
I’d be happy with 4500+ and 45 TDs for sure and don’t see that as an unreasonable projection.
ETA: I’d point out that the chart shows PM as QB2 for the playoff weeks.
That was actually AFTER his production had already tailed off. So even when he regressed later in the year he was still QB2.
That just goes to show how insane his early numbers were and what his ceiling is.
Sure, defenses can study him, but I’m actually banking on him (with Reid) breaking down defenses to even greater effect in his now third year in the league.
I’m just excited to watch him evolve and happy he’ll be on my team while he’s doing
quote:
Streaming any other position is very painful
No doubt.
quote:
And you took him in the double digit rounds and fared better than the guy that paid a 2nd rounder for Aaron Rodgers
Will be interesting to see which late round guys vault into top 5 like PM, Ryan, and Big Ben did last year for sure.
Someone will do it, just have to pick right
This post was edited on 7/23/19 at 11:10 am
Posted on 7/23/19 at 11:29 am to Tiger Voodoo
quote:
Oh man I certainly wasn’t trying to say it wasn’t viable. Sorry if it came off that way. I’m just saying while risky, a QB like Mahomes early (obviously if he puts up similar numbers) can be viable as well.
No worries
. And yeah I agree, the consensus #1 QB is always worth an early pick at the right price. Last year I was totally committed to being one of the last couple teams to take a QB and I ended up calling an audible and taking Russell Wilson in the 6th because I had him as a lock top 3 QB and potentially #1. Couldn't pass it up in the 6th. Of course they decided to become a running team and that blew up in my face, but I'm always willing to pay up when the value is too good ETA: I really meant to aim my analysis at OP, not you. Sounds like his logic would have you taking Mahomes over Saquon because Mahomes will have more points at the end of the season.
This post was edited on 7/23/19 at 11:31 am
Posted on 7/23/19 at 2:59 pm to Tiger inTampa
great running backs outscore average running backs by way more than great QBs outscore average QBs. most of the time. you also have guys like Mahomes who carried teams
Posted on 7/23/19 at 8:35 pm to Nole Man
quote:
But if you could get a Mahomes with a top tier WR and one of the "Big 3" at TE, it'd be interesting to see how it shaped up later on with the other picks. Could be a huge difference.
I would have concern with this strategy. Either having a stud QB or stud TE is typically very valuable, but getting a stud at both positions really leaves you with minimal margin for error on other positions.
Posted on 7/28/19 at 9:33 am to Tiger Voodoo
Is this a serious question? If you are in a league where you just pick 10 random players regardless of position with the objective of scoring the most fantasy points then...... yes I would draft a QB over all the other positions, however in traditional fantasy football you have to play RBs/WRs and there is a greater point disparity in those positions outside of the top 5 so you always draft them first.
Posted on 7/28/19 at 9:34 am to Tiger Voodoo
But on second thought.... no one tells W. Buffet how to invest him money. Maybe your smarter that the average fantasy player.
Posted on 7/28/19 at 10:28 am to Tiger inTampa
You have to take the position tag into consideration since you have roster spot limitations based on those tags.
You can wait to take a QB because the disparity in points between the top 3 and the next 7 aren't as large when you look at the position slots for RB and WR.
You can wait to take a QB because the disparity in points between the top 3 and the next 7 aren't as large when you look at the position slots for RB and WR.
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