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Started By
Message
re: HELENIHI shaking the haters off...
Posted on 5/21/09 at 10:17 pm to tford50
Posted on 5/21/09 at 10:17 pm to tford50
Why the resistace to stats, which are merely the record of what happened? I agree people can misuse stats, but try and make an argument for any player without using ANY stat whatsoever. It's the record of what happened.
Now, Lester. LSU's website does not list the hitting split stats. So unless I go through the game logs, I don't know the exact numbers of anyone vs. LHP or RHP. However, the hitting split of a lefty not hitting well against LHP is true for pretty much every hitter who has ever played (a few players have reverse platoon splits, but not many). It's a basic fact of baseball that righties, in general, hit lefties better and lefties hit righties better. Now, obviously, there is a point where a player is so good that his platoon split doesn't matter. He hits so well against the same handed pitcher even though there is the platoon split it makes no sense to play the inferior hitter.
So, armed with that basic truism, here's our righties on the bench:
Haydel 310/389/414
Helenihi 303/390/485
McGhee 300/333/450
Pontiff 244/354/415
It is safe to assume that all of them hit lefties better than righties, if they live up to 125 years of baseball history. LSU, as a team, hits 314/405/518. So its also safe to assume that the only righty on the bench who hits over the team averages against LHP is Helenihi. That makes him a very, VERY valuable bat on the bench. does it make him Joe DiMaggio? Of course not. but it does make him John Lowenstein. Platoon bats have huge value if used judiciously.
Here are our lefty starters: Mitchell, Dean, Schimpf. That's pretty much a list of our best hitters. Here's LHP starters in SEC play over the last month vs. LSU and our big three's combined line against them and Mitchell's below that:
5/2 v. Arkansas - Dallas Keuchel - 4-11 LOSS
8.1 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 3 K
2-8, 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 HR (Dean)
1-3, BI, K, 1 SB, 1 CS
5/8 v. Florida - Stephen Locke - 10-1 WIN
5.1 IP, 12 H, 9 R, 3 BB, 5 K
4-12, 4 R, 4 BI, 2 K, 1 HR (Dean)
1-4, 1 R, 2 K, 0 SB
5/10 v. Florida - Nick Maronde - 3-9 LOSS
5.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 8 K
2-8, 1 R, 1 BI, 1 BB, 6 K, 1 HR (Schimpf)
0-1, 1 K, 0 SB
5/14 v MSU - Tyler Whitney - 5-4 WIN
6.0 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 4 BB, 2 K
3-10, 2 R, 0 BI, 3 BB, 1 K, 1 2B
2-3, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 2B, 0 SB
5/15 v MSU - Nick Routt - 7-8 LOSS
8 IP, 6 R, 6 H, 5 BB, 5 K
2-11, 2 R, 1 BI, 2 BB, 0 K, 1 HR (Dean)
1-3, 1 R, 1 BB, 0 SB
5/20 v Vandy - Mike Minor - 1-4 LOSS
9 IP, 1 R, 6 H, 3 BB, 5 K
0-11, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K
0-3, BB, 2 K, 0 SB
For the record, that's a 2-4 record vs. LHP in May. We scored 30 runs (10 in one game), averaging 5.0 RPG when we average 7.8 RPG on the year. Dean was boom or bust, making lots of outs but also hitting lots of homers. Mitchell's combined line was 5 for 17 with one XBH (a double), 1 SB, 1 CS, 3 BB, 7 K, 3 R, and 1 RBI.
In May he hit against LHP 294/400/353. Still getting on base at a good clip, but his power evaporates and he does not seem able to run against lefties. Yes, I'd platoon Mitchell with Helenihi. This means we'd have one of the best hitters in the SEC able to come pinch hit when needed most late in the game. And I wouldn't start Helenihi against EVERY lefty we face, but probably against the soft tossers or when Mitchell isn't riding a hot streak.
I really don't understand your fanatical resistance to the fairly conservative idea that we should insert a righty bat against a LHP.
ETA: The worst result of an AB is NOT a strikeout. It is a double play. The "productive out" is better than a strikeout, but not by much. It's still one of the worst outcomes of a plate appearance. Putting the ball in play is USUALLY good, but not always.
Now, Lester. LSU's website does not list the hitting split stats. So unless I go through the game logs, I don't know the exact numbers of anyone vs. LHP or RHP. However, the hitting split of a lefty not hitting well against LHP is true for pretty much every hitter who has ever played (a few players have reverse platoon splits, but not many). It's a basic fact of baseball that righties, in general, hit lefties better and lefties hit righties better. Now, obviously, there is a point where a player is so good that his platoon split doesn't matter. He hits so well against the same handed pitcher even though there is the platoon split it makes no sense to play the inferior hitter.
So, armed with that basic truism, here's our righties on the bench:
Haydel 310/389/414
Helenihi 303/390/485
McGhee 300/333/450
Pontiff 244/354/415
It is safe to assume that all of them hit lefties better than righties, if they live up to 125 years of baseball history. LSU, as a team, hits 314/405/518. So its also safe to assume that the only righty on the bench who hits over the team averages against LHP is Helenihi. That makes him a very, VERY valuable bat on the bench. does it make him Joe DiMaggio? Of course not. but it does make him John Lowenstein. Platoon bats have huge value if used judiciously.
Here are our lefty starters: Mitchell, Dean, Schimpf. That's pretty much a list of our best hitters. Here's LHP starters in SEC play over the last month vs. LSU and our big three's combined line against them and Mitchell's below that:
5/2 v. Arkansas - Dallas Keuchel - 4-11 LOSS
8.1 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 3 K
2-8, 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 HR (Dean)
1-3, BI, K, 1 SB, 1 CS
5/8 v. Florida - Stephen Locke - 10-1 WIN
5.1 IP, 12 H, 9 R, 3 BB, 5 K
4-12, 4 R, 4 BI, 2 K, 1 HR (Dean)
1-4, 1 R, 2 K, 0 SB
5/10 v. Florida - Nick Maronde - 3-9 LOSS
5.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 8 K
2-8, 1 R, 1 BI, 1 BB, 6 K, 1 HR (Schimpf)
0-1, 1 K, 0 SB
5/14 v MSU - Tyler Whitney - 5-4 WIN
6.0 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 4 BB, 2 K
3-10, 2 R, 0 BI, 3 BB, 1 K, 1 2B
2-3, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 2B, 0 SB
5/15 v MSU - Nick Routt - 7-8 LOSS
8 IP, 6 R, 6 H, 5 BB, 5 K
2-11, 2 R, 1 BI, 2 BB, 0 K, 1 HR (Dean)
1-3, 1 R, 1 BB, 0 SB
5/20 v Vandy - Mike Minor - 1-4 LOSS
9 IP, 1 R, 6 H, 3 BB, 5 K
0-11, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K
0-3, BB, 2 K, 0 SB
For the record, that's a 2-4 record vs. LHP in May. We scored 30 runs (10 in one game), averaging 5.0 RPG when we average 7.8 RPG on the year. Dean was boom or bust, making lots of outs but also hitting lots of homers. Mitchell's combined line was 5 for 17 with one XBH (a double), 1 SB, 1 CS, 3 BB, 7 K, 3 R, and 1 RBI.
In May he hit against LHP 294/400/353. Still getting on base at a good clip, but his power evaporates and he does not seem able to run against lefties. Yes, I'd platoon Mitchell with Helenihi. This means we'd have one of the best hitters in the SEC able to come pinch hit when needed most late in the game. And I wouldn't start Helenihi against EVERY lefty we face, but probably against the soft tossers or when Mitchell isn't riding a hot streak.
I really don't understand your fanatical resistance to the fairly conservative idea that we should insert a righty bat against a LHP.
ETA: The worst result of an AB is NOT a strikeout. It is a double play. The "productive out" is better than a strikeout, but not by much. It's still one of the worst outcomes of a plate appearance. Putting the ball in play is USUALLY good, but not always.
This post was edited on 5/21/09 at 10:20 pm
1
Posted on 5/21/09 at 10:38 pm to Baloo
quote:
I really don't understand your fanatical resistance to the fairly conservative idea that we should insert a righty bat against a LHP.
im only "fanatically resisting" taking out our best players for someone that has continually wet the bed in big situations.
As far as platooning, we must have different definitions. It's something, to me, when a trend is set where one player is taken out in favor of another because of a certain matchup continually. Not just a spot start here or there.
Id be more open to a spot start. Why? Because Helenihi hasnt proven enough to warrant platooning with ANYONE.
Then you dip into our best hitters, who happen to be LH. Micthell, Dean, Schimpf.
Im sorry, Im just not removing them completely from a game and starting Helenihi at the point. Im just not.
We are about to embark on a run through the playoffs. We are a national seed, won the SEC reg season, lost only 16 games this season; It's just not time to tinker with that
.
quote:
Mitchell's combined line was 5 for 17 with one XBH (a double), 1 SB, 1 CS, 3 BB, 7 K, 3 R, and 1 RBI.
That is perfectly respectable and you think that warrants platooning with Helenihi? He has 5 XBH all year. What exactly is the point? Dont throw out the "power evaporates" stuff. Helenihi isnt a power threat and you take our best runner and best on base guy out of the lineup,
besides like i said before, Mitchell turns walks and 1B's into doubles because of the threat of the steal. Not to mention the threat he proposes when he puts the ball in play on the ground.
Save me the history BS. I know RH hit LHP better than lefties. But you dont tinker when your best hitters are LH. Ryan Howard isnt coming out of the game in favor or a pinch hitter when they bring a LHP in. And he is especially isnt platooning with anyone when a LHP starts. Same can be said for any great Lefty hitter in the game.
Posted on 5/21/09 at 10:58 pm to Lester Earl
But Mitchell isn't JARED MITCHELL against lefties. His power DOES evaporate. As does his stolen bases (its harder to steal against lefties).
We're 2-4 against LHP in May. Against lefties, LSU's run scoring drops by almost 3 runs per game. If that's not enough to make you want to tinker, what is?
Every team is going to throw a lefty against LSU if they have one. Mitchell has not hit them well. I don't buy the "Helenihi has not been consistent" line as he's been bounced in and out of our lineup and still managed to post just short of a 300/400/500 line. He's a good hitter. And making it so he never has to face a righty will make him even better.
PM obviously knows Mitchell isn't a great hitter against lefties, which is why he drops Mitchell to the bottom of the order vs. LHP. He's already adjusting. And it's not like Mitchell would be nailed to the bench or anything. Most teams only throw one lefty at us and I feel confident in Mitchell's ability to torch any bullpen guy regardless of handedness due to the fact the guy's not good enough to even start in college.
There is a problem. this team DOES struggle against lefties. The question is whether this weakness will prevent us from winning it all. Maybe, maybe not. but I would prefer if PM would make a move to address it. Sitting back and hoping it will be okay is how superior teams get upset in the postseason.
ETA: I should point out LSU is 6-0 in May vs. RHP. 2-4. 6-0. That doesn't worry you? You don't think the coach should be making moves to adjust? Because what he is doing isn't working. Do you think it's a fluke? Why not? If not a fluke, what would you do to address the problem? Nothing?
We're 2-4 against LHP in May. Against lefties, LSU's run scoring drops by almost 3 runs per game. If that's not enough to make you want to tinker, what is?
Every team is going to throw a lefty against LSU if they have one. Mitchell has not hit them well. I don't buy the "Helenihi has not been consistent" line as he's been bounced in and out of our lineup and still managed to post just short of a 300/400/500 line. He's a good hitter. And making it so he never has to face a righty will make him even better.
PM obviously knows Mitchell isn't a great hitter against lefties, which is why he drops Mitchell to the bottom of the order vs. LHP. He's already adjusting. And it's not like Mitchell would be nailed to the bench or anything. Most teams only throw one lefty at us and I feel confident in Mitchell's ability to torch any bullpen guy regardless of handedness due to the fact the guy's not good enough to even start in college.
There is a problem. this team DOES struggle against lefties. The question is whether this weakness will prevent us from winning it all. Maybe, maybe not. but I would prefer if PM would make a move to address it. Sitting back and hoping it will be okay is how superior teams get upset in the postseason.
ETA: I should point out LSU is 6-0 in May vs. RHP. 2-4. 6-0. That doesn't worry you? You don't think the coach should be making moves to adjust? Because what he is doing isn't working. Do you think it's a fluke? Why not? If not a fluke, what would you do to address the problem? Nothing?
This post was edited on 5/21/09 at 11:01 pm
Posted on 5/21/09 at 11:13 pm to Baloo
quote:
His power DOES evaporate
and what power source to we bring in to boost? Helenihi is the answer??? come on. Buzzy Haydel? Pontiff????
It's still only 3 hitters that are LH. We have 6 others that arent producing either. Yank one of them, huh?
quote:
You don't think the coach should be making moves to adjust? Because what he is doing isn't working. Do you think it's a fluke? Why not? If not a fluke, what would you do to address the problem? Nothing?
you dont address it now. Some of those losses vs LHP were results of Ranaudo's 2 worse starts of the season. Another, maybe even the other 2, were Sunday games were Ross started or the bullpen imploded.
It's the postseason now, i like our chances vs a LHP with Coleman or Ranaudo on the mound. If we see a LHP without one of them starting, its likely some 3rd or 4th starter who prob doesnt have great stuff.
Keuchel was ARK ace.
The Routt kid from MSU was just named a to the SEC ALL FR team
Minor has nasty stuff. shite, tip your hat.
PM said on the radio the other day that we have faced over 20 LHP starters this year; he was saying how rare that is. What is our record over the full season?
Im all for adjusting; just dont think its a feasible option to take out our best hitters for unproven guys.
Again, what top LH do u see platooning these days? You ignored like all my points. What's your def of a platoon?
Posted on 5/21/09 at 11:45 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
and what power source to we bring in to boost? Helenihi is the answer??? come on. Buzzy Haydel? Pontiff????
Helenihi hit about 300/400/500. Once again, not Joe DiMaggio, but certainly good enough to mix things up.
quote:
It's still only 3 hitters that are LH. We have 6 others that arent producing either. Yank one of them, huh?
Well, that's not feasible. It's also a red herring. You're not gonna put a lefty bat in to replace them, and I've listed our righty options. Our best righty option off the bench is Helenihi. I'm not inventing our bench. those are our options. It's essentially Helenihi or nothing. You're arguing for nothing.
I would move Nola to a late inning defensive sub, move DJ back to short, Schimp to 2B, and have the OF/DH of Mitchell/Dean/Mahtook/Landry-Helenihi platoon. That would be the top option actually. I'm just throwing out radical solutions because this is a huge issue.
quote:
you dont address it now. Some of those losses vs LHP were results of Ranaudo's 2 worse starts of the season. Another, maybe even the other 2, were Sunday games were Ross started or the bullpen imploded.
So, essentially, you think its a fluke and you do nothing. I think that's an acceptbale idea. Sometime you do nothing. I'm not comfortable with that. You can explain away each individual loss, but I think you see the problem here...
quote:
PM said on the radio the other day that we have faced over 20 LHP starters this year; he was saying how rare that is. What is our record over the full season?
I don't believe this is a coincidence for one second. It's rare to be sure, but it's also a co-ordinated strategy. Teams throw their lefties at us. The reason is obvious - our best hitters are lefties.
Well, just looking at the losses:
Illinois - Haig - LHP
Illinois- Reeser - RHP
ULL - Fusilier- LHP
Kentucky - Albers- LHP
USC - Dyson - RHP
OM - Pomeranz - LHP
Tulane - Loup - LHP
UGa - McRee - LHP
Bama - Howell - LHP
Tennessee - Hernandez - LHP
Tennessee - Harris - RHP
Arkansas - Keuchel - LHP
Florida - Maronde - LHP
Moo St - Routt - LHP
Vandy - Minor - LHP
Of our 16 losses, 13 were against LH starters. Taking PM at his word on the 20 starts, we're 7-13 vs LHP.
That sounds like a problem to me. When is it no longer a fluke?
Now, I'll take Dean's boom or bust. He's hit 4 HR against LHP in May. Schimpf has been pretty consistent. Which forces your hand as a coach - do you leave in Mitchell (who is also a good defender) and hope he turns it around against LHP? Or do you put one of your best hitters on the bench?
quote:
Again, what top LH do u see platooning these days? You ignored like all my points. What's your def of a platoon?
I didn't ingore your points. I've continually and repeatedly addressed them. You just don't like my answers.
I'm not suggesting we platoon every great left-handed hitter. I'm suggesting we platoon Mitchell because he has struggled against LHP. A platoon is when you tend to start a righty vs. LHP and a lefty vs. RHP. But I'm not advcating being a slave to the platoon. I'd still hit Mitchell if the LHP was more of a power pitcher (I think he struggles against soft tossers more) or if he's coming off a big game. It's not like once you have a platoon tendancy you HAVE to slavishly follow it. That is an absurd argument that no one has made. But it is more of a spot start.
7-13. How is that not a problem? What is your solution?
This post was edited on 5/21/09 at 11:47 pm
Posted on 5/22/09 at 12:14 am to Baloo
quote:
I'm suggesting we platoon Mitchell because he has struggled against LHP
For the past 3 or 4 weeks thats putting it EXTREMELY mildly....
I have gotten to the point that im just praying he puts the ball in play against them...hell with getting a hit...
Posted on 5/22/09 at 4:01 pm to Amadeo
RANDY JOHNSON is from Livermore also.
This post was edited on 5/22/09 at 4:02 pm
Posted on 5/22/09 at 4:05 pm to TheDoc
I can't understand why people even remotely hate on any LSU players... I personally can't stand it when someone says an LSU player sucks.
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