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Message
re: Jefferson vs. Lee Inside the Numbers *Updated*
Posted on 10/6/10 at 8:48 pm to buzz1954LSU
Posted on 10/6/10 at 8:48 pm to buzz1954LSU
quote:
You use the word "leading" in a loose sort of way...just saying
Well, JJ ran for 83 yards for the TD on seven of the points. It was a good fake, there was good blocking, he made a good juke move and nobody caught him.
On the other drive with the FG, JJ and Ridley accounted for every yard on the drive (obviously Ridley had the majority). But they were using those running plays where you had to account for both guys and it worked. JJ was the QB and that is usually what you call leading the offense. There were no penalties and they moved the ball forward. That's all.
Again, I think JL should start or get the vast majority of snaps. He's passing better than JJ right now.
0
Posted on 10/6/10 at 8:56 pm to Boh
quote:
Lee going in for the last 2 drive shows me that the coaches had more confidence in him to go win the game than JJ. JJ will start, and come in to give a running threat occasionally. Lee will get twice as many pass attempts as JJ.
This. To put it yet another way, in 5 games, LSU has NEEDED a drive from the offense for a score exactly once, and on that occasion they went with "the backup". You figure it out.
Posted on 10/6/10 at 8:59 pm to Powerman
quote:
So now JJ gets credit for plays where the runner gets more yardage on hand offs than they do for Lee?
That's incredibly stupid man
While this is put in somewhat harsh terms, it is also important. The QB is much more important on a pass play than on a running play, with few exceptions. The pure statistical comparison ignores that fact.
Posted on 10/6/10 at 9:03 pm to OBUDan
quote:
Okay, so JJ got 83 on one play... Lee also picked up 47 on one play. Take both of those out and it's 150 to 140 Lee to JJ.
Lee picked up his big play by passing. Which do you think is most likely to occur, aQB running for 83 or passing for 47? Running from a QB is a luxury. Passing from a QB is a necessity.
Posted on 10/6/10 at 9:05 pm to Roaad
quote:Couldnt convince you of this. A month ago jj was the greatest Einstein.
Lee is better at throwing the ball.
Posted on 10/6/10 at 9:08 pm to EWE TIGER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
All I have done is provide stats to prove points.
All you have done is call me stupid and say "Lee looked better!."
Congrats, if that makes you feel better.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The stats don't prove points. They are just stats........
All I have done is provide stats to prove points.
All you have done is call me stupid and say "Lee looked better!."
Congrats, if that makes you feel better.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
quote:
Thanks for the stats. Good post.
The stats don't prove points. They are just stats........
Posted on 10/6/10 at 10:05 pm to TigerFan55555
quote:How am I doing that, exactly? By saying that both suck?
defend Jefferson
I guess you abide by the new rules:
quote:
Here are the rules:
1) Any criticism of Jefferson makes you a normal objective football fan.
2) Any criticism of Lee makes you a JJ lover, a Lee hater, a lunatic, and a probable communist.
3) Here is where it can get a little confusing: If you say both suck, it is because you are a JJ lover, a Lee hater, a lunatic, and a probable communist.
Posted on 10/6/10 at 10:08 pm to thanksjhester
quote:Lee is a better passer.
Couldnt convince you of this.
I think this has been generally accepted for a while. I have said this since 2008.
Is Lee a good passer? No.
Is he better than JJ at throwing the ball? Yes.
If you asked me these questions a month ago, I would have answered them the same way.
Posted on 10/6/10 at 10:11 pm to Tigerloo
quote:Ok.
While this is put in somewhat harsh terms, it is also important. The QB is much more important on a pass play than on a running play, with few exceptions. The pure statistical comparison ignores that fact.
But from a pure statistical point of view, the running game worked better with JJ behind center.
Nobody is arguing that Lee threw the ball better.
Posted on 10/6/10 at 10:14 pm to OBUDan
3 for 10, 30 yards and 2 ints for Jefferson
16 for 23, 185 yards and 1 Int for Lee
Jefferson had an 83 yard TD run
Lee converted 2 3rd down and a 4th and 14 on that last TD drive.
You decide
16 for 23, 185 yards and 1 Int for Lee
Jefferson had an 83 yard TD run
Lee converted 2 3rd down and a 4th and 14 on that last TD drive.
You decide
Posted on 10/6/10 at 10:16 pm to MetArl15
quote:
I'm curious as to why Lee's increased passing threat doesn't open up the running lanes for Ridley a comparable amount to the threat Jefferson poses as a runner. I wonder if the Tennessee game was an anomaly or if there is something deeper involved.
While Lee is the better QB and passer, if these rushing differences continue, you have to play Jefferson to maintain balance. Hopefully as teams gameplan more for the pass with Lee's presence, that will open up lanes to allow a more equal rushing average, thereby giving the best of both worlds in one QB.
We finally have a winner. Many of you think the quarterback is having some kind of significant impact on the running game, but you have not considered anything other than which one was present when the running game either thrived or struggled. Newsflash! There are 22 players on the field for each play! You cannot take one set of stats based on one single variable and ignore all the others. Who was playing defense on each play? What was the formation? How long had the defense rested when they were successful vs not? At what points in the game did one or more defenders or offensive linemen have to take a crap while trying to play (because I bet it's really hard to block effectively while "holding it in".)
These are nothing but a few stats. They don't prove anything. We have two quarterbacks, and if you fused all of their strengths together into one quarterback he still would not be an All-American.
But they are our quarterbacks, and we will win or lose with them. I believe Lee currently provides a spark that is desperately needed to make the offense effective, even though (or maybe because) I think his risk meter is broken and he will sling it fearlessly. This is paired with my opinion that Jefferson has absolutely no sense of timing in any aspect of being a QB. He throws late, and the offense has no sense of urgency when he is at the helm. But the biggest problem with the offense, IMO, is that our offensive coaches are so focused on who to play for what down and distance that they have completely lost sight of the FACT that the goal of the offense is to score freaking points!!!! Too many specialists and complexities. It's more about execution than substitution, so let's put our best players in and let 'er rip!
Posted on 10/6/10 at 10:41 pm to OBUDan
quote:
I thought it was interesting and my point was only that both bring something to the table and that's why we're playing both of them.
Maybe they both bring something to the table, but what we've seen so far is that they both need something to stand on to reach the table. I certainly could not do better, but then my job is to complain, not do.
Posted on 10/6/10 at 10:44 pm to cwill
how the hell can anyone defend JJ? all you have to do is open your eyes.
lee has his faults but at least the recievers run thier routes to the sticks when he is in the game.
That bomb lee shot to toliver was perfect. JJ could try that throw 20 times and make it once. JL tries it once and makes it. With out JL we lose the last game.
THsi should not even be a argument. JL got more pass yards in half a game then JJ has had all year. Not to mention JL gets thrown in on obvious passing plays and to bail JJ and the coaching staff out.
JL should have always been the starter. We should of taken our lumps. Every qb has to go through it.
lee has his faults but at least the recievers run thier routes to the sticks when he is in the game.
That bomb lee shot to toliver was perfect. JJ could try that throw 20 times and make it once. JL tries it once and makes it. With out JL we lose the last game.
THsi should not even be a argument. JL got more pass yards in half a game then JJ has had all year. Not to mention JL gets thrown in on obvious passing plays and to bail JJ and the coaching staff out.
JL should have always been the starter. We should of taken our lumps. Every qb has to go through it.
This post was edited on 10/6/10 at 10:51 pm
Posted on 10/6/10 at 10:49 pm to OBUDan
You have some numbers wrong:
First off:
With JJ at QB he had 11 rushes for 83 yards.
With Lee at QB he had 11 rushes for 39 yards.
Two of those runs were runs where Ridley just broke loose under JJ for 29 and 20 yards. Great blocking for once had to do with those runs, not the fact JJ was in there.
If you take those out you get the following:
With JJ - 9 rushes for 34 yards or 3.8 ypc
Wiht Lee - 11 carries for 39 yards or 3.5 ypc
At that little number of carries, it's not really significantly different.
Both big runs for 20+ yards by Ridley were individual efforts by Ridley and great OL blocking.
Lee also go screwed on a holding call on his opening drive that erased like a 15 yard run by Ridley.
JJ wasn't why they blocked better for Ridley. It's one game and his 2 big runs just happened to come on JJ's drives.
First off:
With JJ at QB he had 11 rushes for 83 yards.
With Lee at QB he had 11 rushes for 39 yards.
Two of those runs were runs where Ridley just broke loose under JJ for 29 and 20 yards. Great blocking for once had to do with those runs, not the fact JJ was in there.
If you take those out you get the following:
With JJ - 9 rushes for 34 yards or 3.8 ypc
Wiht Lee - 11 carries for 39 yards or 3.5 ypc
At that little number of carries, it's not really significantly different.
Both big runs for 20+ yards by Ridley were individual efforts by Ridley and great OL blocking.
Lee also go screwed on a holding call on his opening drive that erased like a 15 yard run by Ridley.
JJ wasn't why they blocked better for Ridley. It's one game and his 2 big runs just happened to come on JJ's drives.
Posted on 10/6/10 at 10:51 pm to OBUDan
quote:
Yeah, but it's not much of a change. They weren't good situations with Lee, but the two resulted in incompletions (one also with Lee throwing the illegal forward pass).
Here's how a few drives ended:
JJ helms a 8 play, 43 yard drive to the 31. He throws short of the sticks, Peterson fumbles. Could have been a situation where we go for it, or at the very least kick a FG to take a 10-7 lead. Drive killed by Peterson.
Lee get intentional grounding on a 1st and 10 after already picking up a 1st down. 2nd and 23 we run for minimal gain, 3rd and 21 he gets 16 yard back on a pass. Drive killed by Lee there.
JJ drives 40 yards on 4 plays to the 48. Murphy fumbles a pitch on 1st and 10 for a 12 yard loss. JJ throws incomplete on 2nd (dropped by TT and would have been a 1st). Lee comes in on 3rd and 22 and gets illegal forward pass. Drive killed by Murphy.
JJ drives team from our 41 to their 14. Ridley runs for 1 on 1st down. Ford rushes for no gain on 2nd down. Lee throws incomplete on 3rd and 9. Not really JJ's fault there. Can't remember the exact play by Lee.
So JJ wasn't at fault for either of the times Lee had to come in on 3rd and longs.
JJ did kill two drives with his own picks though.
See, here's where you're trying to use stats to make a point, but your argument breaks down and you completely change your position. You say that Jefferson is operating a better running game (or something to that effect) and should get the credit, but when that running game breaks down it's not his fault. You cannot have it both ways. I say he is only partially responsible and therefore does not get all the credit, so the stats don't support your conclusion. I'm not trying to be argumentative, but your stats are just stats, they do not make a point.
Posted on 10/6/10 at 10:56 pm to Big EZ Tiger
quote:
So with neither one of them coming off the bench, that would leave us with...
This might now be an interesting conversation.......
Posted on 10/6/10 at 11:08 pm to just me
quote:
just me
If I see you say "Jefferson" and "weapon" in the same sentence one more time, I may throw up.
Are we trying to decide who is a better QB in this thread? Everyone on this board thinks that is JL.
Is JJ a better runner than JL? Of course, but we have 7-10 guys on the bench who are better runners than JJ, so should they be at QB?
Of course not.
Posted on 10/6/10 at 11:09 pm to Roaad
quote:
But from a pure statistical point of view, the running game worked better with JJ behind center.
These are only statistics, they do not prove any causality. That's the point.
Americans work harder in the European afternoon than in the European morning, on average. But Europe has nothing to do with it, it's just a stat.
Posted on 10/6/10 at 11:27 pm to LSU0407
My guess is that Miles will start JJ unless JJ gets a leg amputated and give Lee a series or two in the first half, possibly the second. Lee will only become important if the passing game is necessary for LSU to get back into a contest.
Posted on 10/6/10 at 11:44 pm to Tigerloo
LSU Drive Summaries
QTR PLAYS - YARDS (RESULT)
1 00:17 1 - 83 (Rushing Touchdown)
1 01:45 3 - 6 (Interception)
1 02:56 6 - 20 (Field Goal Missed)
1 03:15 9 - 46 (Fumble)
2 02:33 5 - 21 (Punt)
2 02:58 7 - 25 (Punt)
3 02:14 5 - 8 (Interception)
3 03:34 6 - 19 (Punt)
3 02:58 7 - 46 (Field Goal Good)
4 01:49 4 - 62 (Interception)
4 05:41 16 - 69 (Rushing Touchdown)
JJ - 6 drives = 214 yards/ 35.7 yard average
JL - 5 drives = 191 yards/ 38.2 yard average
QTR PLAYS - YARDS (RESULT)
1 00:17 1 - 83 (Rushing Touchdown)
1 01:45 3 - 6 (Interception)
1 02:56 6 - 20 (Field Goal Missed)
1 03:15 9 - 46 (Fumble)
2 02:33 5 - 21 (Punt)
2 02:58 7 - 25 (Punt)
3 02:14 5 - 8 (Interception)
3 03:34 6 - 19 (Punt)
3 02:58 7 - 46 (Field Goal Good)
4 01:49 4 - 62 (Interception)
4 05:41 16 - 69 (Rushing Touchdown)
JJ - 6 drives = 214 yards/ 35.7 yard average
JL - 5 drives = 191 yards/ 38.2 yard average
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