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Started By
Message
re: LSU can definitely get in without winning the SEC
Posted on 11/8/10 at 8:19 pm to Turbeauxdog
Posted on 11/8/10 at 8:19 pm to Turbeauxdog
quote:
Fail. My scenario has us ahead of an unbeaten TCU and not winning the SEC. Read the scenario or stay out of the thread.
You clearly said in lsumatt claims we have to win the SEC to make the SECCG
quote:
lsumatt has said its "FACT" that LSU needs to win the SEC to get in the BCSCG
This post was edited on 11/8/10 at 8:20 pm
0
Posted on 11/8/10 at 8:20 pm to lsumatt
quote:
And that scenario can't realistically happen. Which teams are above TCU in the computers, but don't have a single vote above LSU in the human polls?
Matt - good luck with this guy. I tried, but you're here now. Coach him up.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 8:20 pm to Ace Midnight
Posted on 11/8/10 at 8:21 pm to lsumatt
1.AU
2.LSU
3.Nebraska/OkLite
4.Stanford
5.TCU
2.LSU
3.Nebraska/OkLite
4.Stanford
5.TCU
Posted on 11/8/10 at 8:24 pm to Turbeauxdog
And you don't think any voters put a 1-loss Big12 Champ, 1-loss Pac10 champ, or 1-loss Big10 champ above LSU who didn't win the division?
Plus, Nebraska/Ok State (not to mention TCU) would have excellent chances of being above LSU in some computers.
Plus, Nebraska/Ok State (not to mention TCU) would have excellent chances of being above LSU in some computers.
This post was edited on 11/8/10 at 8:26 pm
Posted on 11/8/10 at 8:31 pm to lsumatt
quote:
Plus, Nebraska/Ok State (not to mention TCU) would have excellent chances of being above LSU in some computers.
Now, Matt - I will interject - the better Auburn looks, the better we look. There will also be about 35 games over the next 3 weeks that have the potential to push all of this around. Of course we have to win out, but, in the unlikely event that we have very convincing wins against the Black Bears and @ Little Rock, convincing some AP voters and coaches will be a little bit easier. Your analysis is very well reasoned, accurate, and probably spot on, but maybe a tad conservative for our rising and rabid fanbase.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 8:38 pm to Ace Midnight
I just can't crunch the numbers anyway to realistically get LSU above TCU. I think it is a HUGE stretch to think LSU at 11-1 finishes above TCU and the Big 12 Champ in every single computer...but I will concede it is possible.
But even if that happened, we would need every voter to put LSU, who didn't win their division, got lucky against Tenn, and had several close calls above 1-loss Oregon (which stomped everyone including Tenn at Tenn), 1-loss Nebraska, and 1-loss Big 10 Champ....all to force a rematch. Is that actually reasonable?
But even if that happened, we would need every voter to put LSU, who didn't win their division, got lucky against Tenn, and had several close calls above 1-loss Oregon (which stomped everyone including Tenn at Tenn), 1-loss Nebraska, and 1-loss Big 10 Champ....all to force a rematch. Is that actually reasonable?
Posted on 11/8/10 at 8:41 pm to lsumatt
quote:
Is that actually reasonable?
No, of course not. But, it's lots more fun....
Posted on 11/8/10 at 8:43 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:
No, of course not. But, it's lots more fun....
Oh don't get me wrong, I love coming up with wacky scenarios to get us in the NC game (I didn't actually think WVU was gonna lose to Pitt)...but there are plenty of other ways for us to get in...even if we DON'T win the SEC
Posted on 11/8/10 at 8:44 pm to Turbeauxdog
quote:
but barring voter prejudice,
There is your answer as to why it won't happen. Many of these coaches and Harris Poll voters will know exactly this and intentionally drop LSU down to ensure this doesn't happen.
You can assume we technically have a shot in this scenario, but I can pretty much guarantee it will not happen.
The only possible way I could see it happening is if LSU beats ULM by 40+, Ole Miss by 30+ and Arkansas by 30+. That ain't happening.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 8:45 pm to Turbeauxdog
quote:
TCU drops to 5 average in computers while teams in real conferences play real games.
This is preposterous. In the colley matrix for example, San Diego St is 34 right now. They are 48 in sagarin. That is higher then 2 of LSU's 3 remaining opponents. Hell even massey has San Diego St ahead of ole miss and ULM
No way in hell without a loss that the computers drop them to fifth. That is ridiculous.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 8:56 pm to igoringa
MATT will you explain how Nebraska losing helps us?
Posted on 11/8/10 at 8:58 pm to 756
Nebraska is a wedge team. If they go all the way with 1 loss (including Big 12 champ game) they will steal some votes and be strong in the computer. We need to be the dominant 1 loss choice. They are a threat to that with the extra championship game.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 8:58 pm to 756
quote:
MATT will you explain how Nebraska losing helps us?
If Nebraska is 12-1 and Big12 Champs and LSU is 11-1 and SECW runners up...several voters will feel compelled to vote Nebraska above LSU. The same goes for a 12-1 Ok State team
Posted on 11/8/10 at 9:01 pm to lsumatt
Basically, the best thing for LSU as far as the Big 12 is concerned is for OSU to lose to OU and then OU beat Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship.
That basically knocks both of them out as wedge teams and leaves only Oregon and the Big Ten champs as 1-loss threats.
That basically knocks both of them out as wedge teams and leaves only Oregon and the Big Ten champs as 1-loss threats.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 9:03 pm to LSUMafia
Also, Baylor isn't going to stay at 7-3. They've got a good chance to finish the season 7-5 with losses to both A&M and OU. Both have very good DLs that can contain Griffin.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 9:06 pm to LSUMafia
quote:
That basically knocks both of them out as wedge teams and leaves only Oregon and the Big Ten champs as 1-loss threats.
Yeah, if we get them out of the picture along with Wisconsin, 11-1 LSU may be able to catch Boise without them losing. Then we would just need Oregon and TCU to lose (or AU to lose to Bama and Florida)
Posted on 11/8/10 at 9:38 pm to lsumatt
If LSU doesn't win the conference it has no business in a national title game.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 9:52 pm to LSUbarrister
Why does your BCS computer use tha AP? What am I missing?
This post was edited on 11/8/10 at 10:04 pm
Posted on 11/9/10 at 8:52 am to lsumatt
quote:
(I didn't actually think WVU was gonna lose to Pitt)
I think the final scenario was a maybe so game, Oklahoma had to beat Mizzou and Pitt had to beat WVU (among the other things that went right those last couple of weeks in 2007). I said "maybe" to the maybe so game then I said, "Oklahoma will probably beat Mizzou, but if Pitt needs to beat WVU, then this is all academic. It's fun, though."
My wife and I watched the fourth qtr of Pitt and WVU like it was an LSU game.
Priceless....
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