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re: Are stocks cheap now? The common sense answer...
Posted on 11/20/08 at 5:42 pm to Rivers
Posted on 11/20/08 at 5:42 pm to Rivers
Everyone believes that the economy will get worse. The best thing to do is look at some solid companies, make some very pessimitic assumptions in your valuation, and if the stock is selling at a discount to your conservative valuation, then you have found a cheap stock. I have been doing that and will continue to do that. If prices drop further in the short-term, fine. The recession won't last forever and you have no way of knowing when prices will come back up. So why wait?
1
Posted on 11/20/08 at 5:50 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
are you seeing economic armageddon?
if we see financial armageddon, we will see economic armageddon.
We might see economic armageddon without financial armageddon. The basis for our entire economy is dependent on the US dollar being worth something. If the world determines its not, you can kiss your arse goodbye.
We will have general chaos in a matter of days, and will be unable to feed our population.
Posted on 11/20/08 at 7:32 pm to Nicodemus
The stock market is not the only game in town. I did well shorting oil and am still short some commodities, but not oil.
I believe that when the economy of the world picks up RRs will be a good way to go. UP and Norfolk Southern look OK to me but not yet. The RR play depends on whether or not one buys into the peak oil theory; ie, Is oil really getting more expensive to extract? Are new fields really getting harder to find? In an improving economy is motor fuel going to be too expensive, so expensive that alternatives must be sought? Lots of questions but there are so many variables going forward. I do not think we will have bau.
If the peak oil crowd is right then the future of transportation, especially freight, might be with RRs and barge traffic (where possible). Trucking might be mostly confined to delivery in urban areas.
I believe that when the economy of the world picks up RRs will be a good way to go. UP and Norfolk Southern look OK to me but not yet. The RR play depends on whether or not one buys into the peak oil theory; ie, Is oil really getting more expensive to extract? Are new fields really getting harder to find? In an improving economy is motor fuel going to be too expensive, so expensive that alternatives must be sought? Lots of questions but there are so many variables going forward. I do not think we will have bau.
If the peak oil crowd is right then the future of transportation, especially freight, might be with RRs and barge traffic (where possible). Trucking might be mostly confined to delivery in urban areas.
Posted on 11/20/08 at 10:08 pm to Rivers
RR and barges don't use oil?
Posted on 11/20/08 at 10:31 pm to kfizzle85
Water is the cheapest way to move freight, RRs are second...Trucks are a distant third.
Posted on 11/21/08 at 12:35 am to TigerDeacon
quote:
Are stocks cheap now?
Cheaper than they were yesterday, last week, last month, the last 6 years.
fixed it
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