Domain: tiger-web1.srvr.media3.us AUPH - Aurinia Pharmaceuticals | Page 130 | Money Talk
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re: AUPH - Aurinia Pharmaceuticals

Posted on 3/7/22 at 6:59 pm to
Posted by jimjackandjose
Member since Jun 2011
6702 posts
Posted on 3/7/22 at 6:59 pm to
I bought 1000 shares at 10.95. Hard to not invest in a drug this good
Posted by LChama
Member since May 2020
3835 posts
Posted on 3/7/22 at 7:45 pm to
.
This post was edited on 3/7/22 at 7:47 pm
Posted by jmcwhrter
Member since Nov 2012
7834 posts
Posted on 3/8/22 at 8:52 am to
SVB Leerink with a pretty big price target reduction.. they've been one of the consistently bullish on this one

Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
23818 posts
Posted on 3/8/22 at 8:54 am to
quote:

SVB Leerink with a pretty big price target reduction.. they've been one of the consistently bullish on this one

They sure did wait long enough...
Posted by LChama
Member since May 2020
3835 posts
Posted on 3/8/22 at 11:01 am to
Hearing anything?
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
23818 posts
Posted on 3/8/22 at 11:34 am to
quote:

Hearing anything?

No. I just smell shite.
Posted by Saint5446
Member since Jan 2014
905 posts
Posted on 3/8/22 at 4:42 pm to
What’s the next support under 10? Looks like thin air for a while if this breaks down further.
Posted by SocraticTiger
Member since Dec 2021
253 posts
Posted on 3/8/22 at 5:01 pm to
How long should we expect to hold this? When you think we might see a buyout? Fall? I'm not going to pretend I'm doing any homework. Just been following the thread for a while.
Posted by LChama
Member since May 2020
3835 posts
Posted on 3/8/22 at 5:21 pm to
Thing is ridiculously oversold and manipulated but prob wont reverse until i sell.
Posted by jimjackandjose
Member since Jun 2011
6702 posts
Posted on 3/8/22 at 6:01 pm to
Yea at this point I'm just averaging down

The drug is too good. Negative management is what has suppressed the stock. Someone will buy it. Even if they get a bargain at 15 after it goes back to 5
Posted by SocraticTiger
Member since Dec 2021
253 posts
Posted on 3/8/22 at 6:57 pm to
quote:

Even if they get a bargain at 15 after it goes back to 5


If this thing gets sold for $15 a share then I venture to say we wasted a whole bunch of time and capital. Even BB sounds like he'd only see a $4-5 profit.
This post was edited on 3/8/22 at 6:58 pm
Posted by oklahogjr
Gold Membership
Member since Jan 2010
40237 posts
Posted on 3/8/22 at 8:16 pm to
So it's not gonna be profitable this year. looking like 2023 it would be with +100% growth again.
Posted by redfishfan
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2015
5415 posts
Posted on 3/9/22 at 8:14 am to
quote:

If this thing gets sold for $15 a share then I venture to say we wasted a whole bunch of time and capital. Even BB sounds like he'd only see a $4-5 profit.


I just don't see that as a possibility. There's too much potential profit in this drug for an evaluation that low. I know everybody is freaking out but the company is right on track for their forecast to get to peak revenues. Their guidance didn't include the up to 30 million dollar royalty from EU approval and label as well. The company will be profitable by 2023 and even if they didn't get to 1 billion in net sales till 2027 they would still have 10 years left on the patent at that point. With growth at the current rate they could get to a billion in net sales by 2025 and that's not including royalties from the EU and Japan sales.
This post was edited on 3/9/22 at 8:26 am
Posted by oklahogjr
Gold Membership
Member since Jan 2010
40237 posts
Posted on 3/9/22 at 9:04 am to
quote:

just don't see that as a possibility. There's too much potential profit in this drug for an evaluation that low. I know everybody is freaking out but the company is right on track for their forecast to get to peak revenues. Their guidance didn't include the up to 30 million dollar royalty from EU approval and label as well. The company will be profitable by 2023 and even if they didn't get to 1 billion in net sales till 2027 they would still have 10 years left on the patent at that point. With growth at the current rate they could get to a billion in net sales by 2025 and that's not including royalties from the EU and Japan sales.


There's also the case where sales continues to be weak and we fall flat this year....peter said his guidance was aggressive. I'm not sure why it wouldn't include the 30million....
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
23818 posts
Posted on 3/9/22 at 9:17 am to
quote:

peter said his guidance was aggressive.
That whole thing was pure semantics. Everyone damn well knows (including Peter) that nothing about his guidance was aggressive.

115-135m guidance was aggressive only in the sense that his top end is ~200% of 2021 revenue. That was his only justification for saying the word "aggressive."
Posted by redfishfan
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2015
5415 posts
Posted on 3/9/22 at 10:16 am to
quote:

I'm not sure why it wouldn't include the 30million....


PG specifically said in the earnings call several times it did not include the 30 million. And sales aren’t weak. They are right on target for what their estimates have been from the start.
Posted by jmcwhrter
Member since Nov 2012
7834 posts
Posted on 3/9/22 at 10:41 am to
quote:

And sales aren’t weak. They are right on target for what their estimates have been from the start.



PG specifically said that 1Q '22 would be weak, and then they expect the rest of the year to catch up "as Omicron subsides"

meaning they'll have to IMPROVE just to reach the shitty guidance they put out

i'm with BB on this one though.. now that options are awarded at ~$11-12, I expect management to be more aggressive about defending the SP at that level than they have in the past -- even if it means doing more shitty things like leaks, rumors, etc.
This post was edited on 3/9/22 at 10:43 am
Posted by redfishfan
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2015
5415 posts
Posted on 3/9/22 at 10:49 am to
quote:

PG specifically said that 1Q '22 would be weak, and then they expect the rest of the year to catch up "as Omicron subsides"


He said this was expected as is with any rare disease drug as the year starts over and insurance deductibles and other things reset. So no they don’t have to improve just to reach shitty guidance. They guided up to 135m without the 30 million meaning if they hit 125 million in net sales along with say 25 million royalty for EU approval you are looking at 150 million net profit up from roughly 50 million from 2021. I’m not saying they are blowing it out the park by any means but they are right are target for what they expected.
Posted by LChama
Member since May 2020
3835 posts
Posted on 3/9/22 at 11:41 am to
Nice day to be in this one finally
Posted by SocraticTiger
Member since Dec 2021
253 posts
Posted on 3/9/22 at 11:46 am to
11.52 I make even. Maybe I should just call this thing quits
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