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Posted on 3/7/22 at 7:45 pm to jimjackandjose
.
This post was edited on 3/7/22 at 7:47 pm
Posted on 3/8/22 at 8:52 am to jimjackandjose
SVB Leerink with a pretty big price target reduction.. they've been one of the consistently bullish on this one

Posted on 3/8/22 at 8:54 am to jmcwhrter
quote:They sure did wait long enough...
SVB Leerink with a pretty big price target reduction.. they've been one of the consistently bullish on this one
Posted on 3/8/22 at 11:34 am to LChama
quote:No. I just smell shite.
Hearing anything?
Posted on 3/8/22 at 4:42 pm to bayoubengals88
What’s the next support under 10? Looks like thin air for a while if this breaks down further.
Posted on 3/8/22 at 5:01 pm to bayoubengals88
How long should we expect to hold this? When you think we might see a buyout? Fall? I'm not going to pretend I'm doing any homework. Just been following the thread for a while.
Posted on 3/8/22 at 5:21 pm to SocraticTiger
Thing is ridiculously oversold and manipulated but prob wont reverse until i sell.
Posted on 3/8/22 at 6:01 pm to LChama
Yea at this point I'm just averaging down
The drug is too good. Negative management is what has suppressed the stock. Someone will buy it. Even if they get a bargain at 15 after it goes back to 5
The drug is too good. Negative management is what has suppressed the stock. Someone will buy it. Even if they get a bargain at 15 after it goes back to 5
Posted on 3/8/22 at 6:57 pm to jimjackandjose
quote:
Even if they get a bargain at 15 after it goes back to 5
If this thing gets sold for $15 a share then I venture to say we wasted a whole bunch of time and capital. Even BB sounds like he'd only see a $4-5 profit.
This post was edited on 3/8/22 at 6:58 pm
Posted on 3/8/22 at 8:16 pm to SocraticTiger
So it's not gonna be profitable this year. looking like 2023 it would be with +100% growth again.
Posted on 3/9/22 at 8:14 am to SocraticTiger
quote:
If this thing gets sold for $15 a share then I venture to say we wasted a whole bunch of time and capital. Even BB sounds like he'd only see a $4-5 profit.
I just don't see that as a possibility. There's too much potential profit in this drug for an evaluation that low. I know everybody is freaking out but the company is right on track for their forecast to get to peak revenues. Their guidance didn't include the up to 30 million dollar royalty from EU approval and label as well. The company will be profitable by 2023 and even if they didn't get to 1 billion in net sales till 2027 they would still have 10 years left on the patent at that point. With growth at the current rate they could get to a billion in net sales by 2025 and that's not including royalties from the EU and Japan sales.
This post was edited on 3/9/22 at 8:26 am
Posted on 3/9/22 at 9:04 am to redfishfan
quote:
just don't see that as a possibility. There's too much potential profit in this drug for an evaluation that low. I know everybody is freaking out but the company is right on track for their forecast to get to peak revenues. Their guidance didn't include the up to 30 million dollar royalty from EU approval and label as well. The company will be profitable by 2023 and even if they didn't get to 1 billion in net sales till 2027 they would still have 10 years left on the patent at that point. With growth at the current rate they could get to a billion in net sales by 2025 and that's not including royalties from the EU and Japan sales.
There's also the case where sales continues to be weak and we fall flat this year....peter said his guidance was aggressive. I'm not sure why it wouldn't include the 30million....
Posted on 3/9/22 at 9:17 am to oklahogjr
quote:That whole thing was pure semantics. Everyone damn well knows (including Peter) that nothing about his guidance was aggressive.
peter said his guidance was aggressive.
115-135m guidance was aggressive only in the sense that his top end is ~200% of 2021 revenue. That was his only justification for saying the word "aggressive."
Posted on 3/9/22 at 10:16 am to oklahogjr
quote:
I'm not sure why it wouldn't include the 30million....
PG specifically said in the earnings call several times it did not include the 30 million. And sales aren’t weak. They are right on target for what their estimates have been from the start.
Posted on 3/9/22 at 10:41 am to redfishfan
quote:
And sales aren’t weak. They are right on target for what their estimates have been from the start.
PG specifically said that 1Q '22 would be weak, and then they expect the rest of the year to catch up "as Omicron subsides"
meaning they'll have to IMPROVE just to reach the shitty guidance they put out
i'm with BB on this one though.. now that options are awarded at ~$11-12, I expect management to be more aggressive about defending the SP at that level than they have in the past -- even if it means doing more shitty things like leaks, rumors, etc.
This post was edited on 3/9/22 at 10:43 am
Posted on 3/9/22 at 10:49 am to jmcwhrter
quote:
PG specifically said that 1Q '22 would be weak, and then they expect the rest of the year to catch up "as Omicron subsides"
He said this was expected as is with any rare disease drug as the year starts over and insurance deductibles and other things reset. So no they don’t have to improve just to reach shitty guidance. They guided up to 135m without the 30 million meaning if they hit 125 million in net sales along with say 25 million royalty for EU approval you are looking at 150 million net profit up from roughly 50 million from 2021. I’m not saying they are blowing it out the park by any means but they are right are target for what they expected.
Posted on 3/9/22 at 11:41 am to redfishfan
Nice day to be in this one finally
Posted on 3/9/22 at 11:46 am to LChama
11.52 I make even. Maybe I should just call this thing quits 
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