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Message
re: Banking crashes continue;
Posted on 5/2/23 at 2:50 pm to Big Scrub TX
Posted on 5/2/23 at 2:50 pm to Big Scrub TX
You may get your wish soon enough as the Fed instigated by this corrupt administration will throw in the towel which will lead to hyperinflation. Let these fricking banks FAIL!
0
Posted on 5/2/23 at 3:04 pm to GhostOfFreedom
They gone
Posted on 5/2/23 at 3:40 pm to FLObserver
quote:
So what your showing is there is way to many banks and the herd is being thinned out. Is this such a bad thing?
Or.... what I could be saying is that "lowering competition isn't going to create better product".
Or I could be saying that there are lots of bank personnel who make bad business decisions.
But what I'm really saying is "look at this nifty visual representation of bank failures by number, size and year that I found on the interwebz."
Posted on 5/2/23 at 4:58 pm to GEAUXT
quote:
However, the set up quite similar. The banks just found a different way to over leverage themselves.
It’s not in the same stratosphere.
Posted on 5/2/23 at 6:11 pm to slackster
quote:
It’s not in the same stratosphere.
Exactly. Totally different issue than 2008. Not even close to the same thing.
Posted on 5/2/23 at 9:38 pm to GhostOfFreedom
What's everyone thing about PACW? They make it out alive? I took a flyer on them I should have sold.
Posted on 5/3/23 at 7:48 am to GREENHEAD22
I'm kicking myself for not selling pacw and wal last week ...
Posted on 5/3/23 at 9:34 am to 632627
quote:
I'm kicking myself for not selling pacw and wal last week ...
Got in WAL at 28 and 31... I'm down like .06% rn. Thinkin I'm gonna bail...
And ya was all happy WAL was up last week, shoulda just got out and bought more Tesla.
This post was edited on 5/3/23 at 9:36 am
Posted on 5/3/23 at 4:20 pm to GhostOfFreedom
Anyone starting to think about pulling trigger on KRE? Down to $36 in after hours, so I started thinking about DCA’ing this afternoon. Treading very lightly for now, though.
This post was edited on 5/3/23 at 7:21 pm
Posted on 5/3/23 at 4:42 pm to 632627
Traders with big balls are making alot of money shorting these regional banks. Wolves chasing antelopes at this point.
Posted on 5/3/23 at 6:10 pm to GEAUXT
quote:
Now I'm NOT saying this is 2008. However, the set up quite similar. The banks just found a different way to over leverage themselves.
Nothing like 2008. Much more like 1986 with S&L than 2008. This is a maturity mismatch/duration risk issue. It’s shocking how bad these banks have beenn, knowing the fed was going to raise rates.
The short sellers are cleaning the system. It is a vicious cycle. Interests rates cause deposits to dwindle for going into treasuries or guaranteed 4-5% returns, stocks go down and that causes a run. Feeding frenzy right now.
Yellen has no clue what she is doing, but they need to raise the FDIC limit on protection substantially or it is going to continue.
This post was edited on 5/4/23 at 2:45 pm
Posted on 5/3/23 at 7:35 pm to go ta hell ole miss
quote:
Nothing like 2008. Much more like 1986 with S&L than 2008. This is a maturity mismatch/duration risk issue. It’s shocking how bad these banks have beenn, knowing the fed was going to raise rates. The short sellers are cleaning the system. It is a vicious cycle. Interests rattles cause deposits to dwindle for going into treasuries or guaranteed 4-5% returns, stocks go down and that causes a run. Feeding frenzy right now. Yellen has no clue what she is doing, but they need to raise the FDIC limit on protection substantially or it is going to continue.
As a 25+ yr banker, this nails it.
Mismatched for sure. But when you’re sitting on a LTD ratio in the high 70’s, low 80’s making 0.25% on your money in Fed Funds overnight you have to put money out in loans at 3-4% to cover overhead. Toss in fierce competition in almost every market and everyone bending on price it just sets up ugliness.
We are now sitting in 2 hour+ ALCO and ERM meetings looking at shite from 50 different “what if” angles right now. Damned if you pull one lever, damned if you pull another. And the Fed and government aren’t helping (community banks) whatsoever.
This post was edited on 5/3/23 at 8:29 pm
Posted on 5/3/23 at 8:43 pm to Im4datigers
The snowball has started and not ripping the bandaid off with SVC, Signature, etc was a horrible, horrible move.
The shorts will tear through every regional bank now - no one will be spared.
The shorts will tear through every regional bank now - no one will be spared.
Posted on 5/3/23 at 9:05 pm to Im4datigers
quote:
Mismatched for sure. But when you’re sitting on a LTD ratio in the high 70’s, low 80’s making 0.25% on your money in Fed Funds overnight you have to put money out in loans at 3-4% to cover overhead.
Exactly. They broke the #1 rule of borrowing short (unsecured deposits) and lending long (loans / mortgages). Rising rates may be the culprit here, but it is just exposing how out of balance these banks were.
Posted on 5/4/23 at 6:58 am to Im4datigers
Maybe a dumb question but what do you do with the customer deposits? Should banks have invested more in money market funds themselves and then in turn raise interest rates they pay on customer deposits more aggressively?
Posted on 5/4/23 at 7:26 am to SiriusBraveFan
quote:
Maybe a dumb question but what do you do with the customer deposits?
The short answer is: they invest them in some manner.
I thought the reserve requirement was 10%, but apparently now it's zero (any banking folks, please feel free to correct me if that's wrong).
But let's say there is a reserve ratio (the portion of deposits they have to keep on hand) of 2%. That would mean they have 98% to use to make a profit for themselves. The majority of that (80%-90%) would likely be loaned out to consumers and other banks (banks who need to meet their reserve ratios, these are overnight loans). The rest would be invested in low-risk securities (2-year bonds, for example).
This is all a high-level view so take it with a grain of salt.
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