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Started By
Message
re: BOIL has become predictable
Posted on 6/18/14 at 1:47 pm to Iowa Golfer
Posted on 6/18/14 at 1:47 pm to Iowa Golfer
I'm out of July UNG 24 puts bought at .17. FIFO will show this at a loss.
Trying to get out of my July UNG 23 puts purchased at .06. Same story here, FIFO so I'll take this at a loss.
It averages up my trade, but realistically, even though I'll take these as tax losses, they are actually small gains.
I'm hanging tight on the rest for now.
Trying to get out of my July UNG 23 puts purchased at .06. Same story here, FIFO so I'll take this at a loss.
It averages up my trade, but realistically, even though I'll take these as tax losses, they are actually small gains.
I'm hanging tight on the rest for now.
1
Posted on 6/18/14 at 5:51 pm to Iowa Golfer
LINK
We'll see. I'd expect futures to trade lower all night and open lower in anticipation. I'd expect the long etf and etn's to open lower. After that it probably goes up in a crazy fashion as per teh norm. The norm no matter what the report indicates.
I'm unwinding. Every option that is .01 above my purchase price I hope to get rid of tomorrow morning, and will hold the rest until death do us part.
I did purchase DGAZ, and will hold that until at least October. maybe longer.
I think I eventually get out of all of this at break even, but this has been an unbelievable amount of work.
I don't mind. I'd rather take larger positions and micro manage them, then have 20 open small positions. This one just hasn't gone exactly according to plan. I think I get out losing no more than $5K, but hope to lose nothing except time.
We'll see. I'd expect futures to trade lower all night and open lower in anticipation. I'd expect the long etf and etn's to open lower. After that it probably goes up in a crazy fashion as per teh norm. The norm no matter what the report indicates.
I'm unwinding. Every option that is .01 above my purchase price I hope to get rid of tomorrow morning, and will hold the rest until death do us part.
I did purchase DGAZ, and will hold that until at least October. maybe longer.
I think I eventually get out of all of this at break even, but this has been an unbelievable amount of work.
I don't mind. I'd rather take larger positions and micro manage them, then have 20 open small positions. This one just hasn't gone exactly according to plan. I think I get out losing no more than $5K, but hope to lose nothing except time.
Posted on 6/19/14 at 8:20 am to Iowa Golfer
What is the word for this weeks injection? We expecting another tank job at 9:30? If so, it will be the lowest DGAZ has ever been.
Posted on 6/19/14 at 9:22 am to TheBigHurt
Posted on 6/19/14 at 9:32 am to Iowa Golfer
Over reaction. 1st time ever injections for 5 straight reports came in over 100.
This isn't a huge injection, but once the report hit, I'm immediately executed the sale of 104 puts at a small gain.
Unwinding.
This isn't a huge injection, but once the report hit, I'm immediately executed the sale of 104 puts at a small gain.
Unwinding.
Posted on 6/19/14 at 9:56 am to Iowa Golfer
Looks like the party is over for today. I got rid of a lot of puts that were recent acquired at a gin, but FIFO will show a taxable loss.
I fear it is going to get exceeding difficult to unwind the rest of my short position.
We'll see. Every Thursday I sit here and slave at it.
I fear it is going to get exceeding difficult to unwind the rest of my short position.
We'll see. Every Thursday I sit here and slave at it.
Posted on 6/19/14 at 10:04 am to Iowa Golfer
I've enjoyed your running commentary in this thread. I've learned a lot from it.
How do you keep up with all you option positions? Is that provided in the trading platform you use or do you have to keep a spreadsheet of some kind? I'm especially referring to the options you write.
What is you current overall options positions?
Thanks. You make this board more interesting.
How do you keep up with all you option positions? Is that provided in the trading platform you use or do you have to keep a spreadsheet of some kind? I'm especially referring to the options you write.
What is you current overall options positions?
Thanks. You make this board more interesting.
Posted on 6/19/14 at 10:17 am to LSURussian
It's all online in a trading account. I do have a specialized spread sheet that pulls data from futures, etf quotes, spot and options price relationship on natural gas. I've attempted to find a relationship between these prices.
Natural gas has been a nightmare. The pricing reality is removed from fundamentals currently. Pipeline capacity. Producers aren't producing in an effort to enjoy the current prices. We are in a purely emotional bull market, notwithstanding the 5 year storage lows.
There is some long term opportunity here. Likely in a short etf. As much as I caution against etf's and especially etn's as they are designed for trades lasting no longer than a day, especially the levered ones, I made a mistake on this trade.
I picked July UNG puts (long puts, I didn't sell these, I bought these). UNG would be based on August future's contracts in July. I picked a time certain, and should have went out longer. I mitagted this buy purchasing DGAZ near its low. DGAZ can just sit. Again, DGAZ isn't something that should just sit, but this is a special circumstance. Namely me trying to get out of here alive. (I will post appropriate Doors video with lyrics at a later time)
I bought as low as .06, but bought early a lot higher than this.
A series of mistakes in this trade, which I am now rectifying every Thursday morning while the report comes out. Mornings because amateurs are trading a lot at opening bell, and the predictable over reaction to EIA's report, many time not based on reality. As today's was again.
Natural gas has been a nightmare. The pricing reality is removed from fundamentals currently. Pipeline capacity. Producers aren't producing in an effort to enjoy the current prices. We are in a purely emotional bull market, notwithstanding the 5 year storage lows.
There is some long term opportunity here. Likely in a short etf. As much as I caution against etf's and especially etn's as they are designed for trades lasting no longer than a day, especially the levered ones, I made a mistake on this trade.
I picked July UNG puts (long puts, I didn't sell these, I bought these). UNG would be based on August future's contracts in July. I picked a time certain, and should have went out longer. I mitagted this buy purchasing DGAZ near its low. DGAZ can just sit. Again, DGAZ isn't something that should just sit, but this is a special circumstance. Namely me trying to get out of here alive. (I will post appropriate Doors video with lyrics at a later time)
I bought as low as .06, but bought early a lot higher than this.
A series of mistakes in this trade, which I am now rectifying every Thursday morning while the report comes out. Mornings because amateurs are trading a lot at opening bell, and the predictable over reaction to EIA's report, many time not based on reality. As today's was again.
Posted on 6/19/14 at 10:40 am to Iowa Golfer
And there she turns back upward. Small opportunity to sell this morning.
The reaction in this market is unbelievable.
See y'all next Thursday morning.
LINK
The reaction in this market is unbelievable.
See y'all next Thursday morning.
LINK
Posted on 6/19/14 at 1:32 pm to Iowa Golfer
And here we go again. Down baby, down.
Posted on 6/19/14 at 1:35 pm to Iowa Golfer
Posted on 6/20/14 at 8:17 am to sneakytiger
And we're gonna be going down, down, down. July is getting close to $4.50.
We'll see if the ETF's actually behave in a logical manner this morning.
We'll see if the ETF's actually behave in a logical manner this morning.
Posted on 6/20/14 at 8:22 am to Iowa Golfer
Pre Market looking solid.
Posted on 6/20/14 at 8:52 am to TigeRoots
Posted on 6/20/14 at 8:59 am to Iowa Golfer
Great band!
Posted on 6/22/14 at 1:55 pm to TigeRoots
Cash was $4.51 on Friday. July is at $4.531 and August is at $4.552.
UNG hasn't caught up. It will be interesting to see how the markets open this evening.
UNG hasn't caught up. It will be interesting to see how the markets open this evening.
Posted on 6/22/14 at 2:32 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:For those with money in the market isn't that always the case?
It will be interesting to see how the markets open this evening.
Posted on 6/22/14 at 5:13 pm to LSURussian
And we're off. About 1000 contract for July and August moved almost immediately. We'll see how it goes from here. I'm buying back contracts at $4.50 if it gets there. About $3,500 per contract gain.
Posted on 6/22/14 at 5:47 pm to Iowa Golfer
Dumpage executed at $4.523.
Posted on 6/23/14 at 6:40 am to Iowa Golfer
Amateur overnight money has July below $4.50.
Could it be? Is it sustainable?
Could it be? Is it sustainable?
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