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Started By
Message
re: BOIL has become predictable
Posted on 11/12/14 at 6:26 am to Ole War Skule
Posted on 11/12/14 at 6:26 am to Ole War Skule
Volatility today is looks like. Cash settled a dime lower yesterday, and December is already down a nickel this morning.
1
Posted on 11/12/14 at 8:19 am to Iowa Golfer
Looks like another chance to load up.
Posted on 11/12/14 at 7:16 pm to rintintin
EIA November Short-Term Energy Outlook predicts lower than expected natural gas prices this winter.
Posted on 11/12/14 at 8:39 pm to Iowa Golfer
Unbelievable. Cash moved up .14 today, but futures are trading down. Probably responding to the EIA report above.
The wild jumps lately in the HH cash prices has really been something else.
The wild jumps lately in the HH cash prices has really been something else.
Posted on 11/12/14 at 10:19 pm to Iowa Golfer
I think at least part of the run up in cash has to be this early cold snap we are experiencing down here.
Posted on 11/13/14 at 7:31 am to Iowa Golfer
quote:
The wild jumps lately in the HH cash prices has really been something else.
do you think volatility ultimately results in an up or down move?
I'm long UGAZ again, but quickly losing confidence in the position.
Posted on 11/13/14 at 8:21 am to Ole War Skule
I'm getting back in under 12. I think we still have too much supply coming online and mild weather forecasts (after this cold snap).
Note that I still have no clue what I am doing and just reading and learning at this point. Your guess is as good as mine where this is going.
Note that I still have no clue what I am doing and just reading and learning at this point. Your guess is as good as mine where this is going.
Posted on 11/13/14 at 8:54 am to Iowa Golfer
knew I should have put a tailing stop loss in on UGAZ when it was riding high.
Posted on 11/13/14 at 9:20 am to b-rab2
Futures trading below spot.
Posted on 11/13/14 at 9:40 am to Iowa Golfer
wanna give me a little lesson on what you mean by that Iowa?
Posted on 11/13/14 at 9:46 am to Iowa Golfer
I'd like the TheForce to weigh in. He's called everything since the beginning of this thread fairly accurately. He said we'd see another dip before the brunt of winter hits, and that's exactly what we're seeing now. The question is How low will it go?
Posted on 11/13/14 at 10:16 am to rintintin
I have a price trigger to buy @13.99 1k shares....
Other wise I'm holding what I already have.... All I'm reading is production is gonna hang Bulls this winter so 20 may be highest ugaz gets..... Might not see the 6 buck spot bump
Other wise I'm holding what I already have.... All I'm reading is production is gonna hang Bulls this winter so 20 may be highest ugaz gets..... Might not see the 6 buck spot bump
Posted on 11/13/14 at 10:23 am to b-rab2
quote:
knew I should have put a tailing stop loss in on UGAZ when it was riding high.
bailed at 17.4
bought back at 16.1
Posted on 11/13/14 at 10:31 am to Ole War Skule
Contracts for December gas delivery are less expensive than the current spot price at Henry Hub. Upon expiration of the December contract, the price must match cash price. Sometimes future's prices impact spot prices, sometimes the other way around.
December contract will expire 11/25. It will match cash at that point.
My instinct is the December contract will increase because historically due to winter, December futures always trade higher.
No guarantees this year. The EIA short term outlook is bearish. The updated weather this morning is bullish. The EIA injection tomorrow is probably below 35, and the next several could possibly be negative.
December contract will expire 11/25. It will match cash at that point.
My instinct is the December contract will increase because historically due to winter, December futures always trade higher.
No guarantees this year. The EIA short term outlook is bearish. The updated weather this morning is bullish. The EIA injection tomorrow is probably below 35, and the next several could possibly be negative.
This post was edited on 11/13/14 at 10:34 am
Posted on 11/13/14 at 10:40 am to Iowa Golfer
below 35 is good, b/c that means more gas going to consumer rather than storage, correct?
Posted on 11/13/14 at 11:32 am to b-rab2
Mostly, yes.
Posted on 11/13/14 at 11:42 am to Iowa Golfer
should have bought 21.5 UNG puts yesterday...dang
Posted on 11/13/14 at 12:09 pm to thatguy777
My strategy. On days like today I go long Jan/Feb. If we get a sharp increase, I load up shorts for July/Aug.
Doesn't matter much which vehicle you use, whether options, contracts or etp's.
Wash, rinse, repeat.
Doesn't matter much which vehicle you use, whether options, contracts or etp's.
Wash, rinse, repeat.
Posted on 11/13/14 at 12:16 pm to Iowa Golfer
Sold 2000 of dgaz @ 3.67.....never thought I'd make 30% on that in two weeks.... Held a 1000 for leverage....
Playing both sides now....
Playing both sides now....
Posted on 11/13/14 at 12:17 pm to Iowa Golfer
Can you please explain that to me?
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