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re: BOIL has become predictable
Posted on 11/19/14 at 2:19 pm to L S Usetheforce
Posted on 11/19/14 at 2:19 pm to L S Usetheforce
So this might be a dumb question but would it be a mistake to hold onto your whole position in UGAZ and bet on the weather staying cold and Nat gas going up more over the next couple of months?
1
Posted on 11/19/14 at 2:47 pm to Crbello4Hiceman
depends on where your position is.........if you are up why wouldn't you take profit? I believe it was my friend Iowa Golfer who said.........Bears make money, Bulls make money, Pigs get slaughtered.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 2:50 pm to L S Usetheforce
Only up 15%... any recommendations? I'm a little new to this...
Posted on 11/19/14 at 3:09 pm to Crbello4Hiceman
"Only" up 15% 
Posted on 11/19/14 at 3:10 pm to southernelite
Posted on 11/19/14 at 3:38 pm to Crbello4Hiceman
quote:
Only up 15%
15% is a pretty good gain.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 4:03 pm to L S Usetheforce
quote:
Bears make money, Bulls make money, Pigs get slaughtered.
Yep, that is how I'm handling this. At one point today I could have been up 38% since last Thursday(!) when I got back in. Instead, near the close I was still up 31% and decided to take that and get off the table for now. It's easily the largest gain I've made. There have been 4 other trades where I've averaged 9% since last spring. Too quick on the trigger usually but timing this perfectly (or even very well) is very difficult. My belief is that if you have a nice gain then take it and get back in the game later when the charts are begging for you to do so. This stuff is so volatile your profits can blow up very quickly.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 4:12 pm to b-rab2
My Jan/Feb $4.50 calls are at over $3,000 profit per contract. I'm going to put in a sell on either a quarter or half of them after tomorrow's report. Probably 1/4 of them. All long calls in the futures market after that is "house money", a term I don't like to use because it's actually my money, but you get my point.
My Jan UNG $21 calls were over $3.60 today. My average cost in is right about a buck. I'm going to wait longer, but eventually make some money.
I also have UNG spreads, or pairs. I bought Jan 21 calls, and sold Jan 26 calls. Maximum profit is $500 per spread. If they get to a $300 per contract profit, I'll unload some of these. I have some Jan/Fen $4.50/$5.00 call spreads on future's contracts where the maximum profit is about $4,200 per pair, and if they get to $2,500, I'll sell about half of these.
I didn't buy DGAZ at $2.50 today. I'm waiting until at least tomorrow's report, possibly the next one or teo after that.
I think physiologically the largest impact will be tomorrow's report as it will likely be the first negative injection.
I'll continue to trade weather in the winter every Tuesday or Weds, for Thursday's reports, and continue to trade injections in the summer, same time frame.
Probably a lot of assorted options all year as well.
I don't know if BOIL is predictable or not, but on a macro level, natural gas has proven to be extreme predicable with some minor exceptions.
Great thread. I had always traded UNG options here and there, but really got serious about it after the OP's (LS Use The Force Be With You) thread and seeing his due diligence.
My offer still stands, I owe him some imported beer. last summer I thought I was going to pay off, but we had that last day expiration on UNG puts where some of us barely made it out alive. I thought that was a six digit hit. As it turned it, it was nice, but boy I had my hopes up and went large on that fiasco. Thank God I showed discipline and stayed with it to the last possible minute.
My Jan UNG $21 calls were over $3.60 today. My average cost in is right about a buck. I'm going to wait longer, but eventually make some money.
I also have UNG spreads, or pairs. I bought Jan 21 calls, and sold Jan 26 calls. Maximum profit is $500 per spread. If they get to a $300 per contract profit, I'll unload some of these. I have some Jan/Fen $4.50/$5.00 call spreads on future's contracts where the maximum profit is about $4,200 per pair, and if they get to $2,500, I'll sell about half of these.
I didn't buy DGAZ at $2.50 today. I'm waiting until at least tomorrow's report, possibly the next one or teo after that.
I think physiologically the largest impact will be tomorrow's report as it will likely be the first negative injection.
I'll continue to trade weather in the winter every Tuesday or Weds, for Thursday's reports, and continue to trade injections in the summer, same time frame.
Probably a lot of assorted options all year as well.
I don't know if BOIL is predictable or not, but on a macro level, natural gas has proven to be extreme predicable with some minor exceptions.
Great thread. I had always traded UNG options here and there, but really got serious about it after the OP's (LS Use The Force Be With You) thread and seeing his due diligence.
My offer still stands, I owe him some imported beer. last summer I thought I was going to pay off, but we had that last day expiration on UNG puts where some of us barely made it out alive. I thought that was a six digit hit. As it turned it, it was nice, but boy I had my hopes up and went large on that fiasco. Thank God I showed discipline and stayed with it to the last possible minute.
Posted on 11/20/14 at 5:13 am to Iowa Golfer
We're up big this morning. I suspect the injection is going to add fuel to the fire.
Here we go, go, to the show, show, you Hostess Ho Ho's.
Here we go, go, to the show, show, you Hostess Ho Ho's.
Posted on 11/20/14 at 6:52 am to Iowa Golfer
Excuse my ignorance. Where do you find the injection report?
Posted on 11/20/14 at 6:59 am to Iowa Golfer
So exciting. I did buy some DGAZ yesterday after my trade trigger sold my UGAZ. It is supposed to warm over ther weekend a little.
Posted on 11/20/14 at 7:15 am to b-rab2
Just forget about DGAZ for now. You won't need to worry about it until at least early spring. FWIW, I think on a macro level you picked a good time to go short. Now forget DGAZ, even if it continues to get crushed. And it will.
Posted on 11/20/14 at 7:17 am to Iowa Golfer
Posted on 11/20/14 at 7:37 am to Iowa Golfer
Good song!
Posted on 11/20/14 at 7:46 am to Iowa Golfer
Posted on 11/20/14 at 7:51 am to southernelite
Leveling out.
Posted on 11/20/14 at 9:30 am to Iowa Golfer
BOOM
ETA: not so BOOM after all
ETA: not so BOOM after all
This post was edited on 11/20/14 at 9:41 am
Posted on 11/20/14 at 9:36 am to Ole War Skule
Here we go, go.
To the show, show.
Easy money for all of us Hostess' Ho Ho's.
To the show, show.
Easy money for all of us Hostess' Ho Ho's.
Posted on 11/20/14 at 9:38 am to Iowa Golfer
9:40 is the ten minute delay for the stock traders that don't have real time future's quote access.
So 9:40 is the next show, show.
So 9:40 is the next show, show.
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