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Started By
Message
re: BOIL has become predictable
Posted on 1/5/15 at 8:23 am to TheIndulger
Posted on 1/5/15 at 8:23 am to TheIndulger
quote:
Why wouldn't that be possible?
are you asking me?
It's what I'm going to try to do but I'm a noob. I'm sure somebody who's smarter than me will come by and school me about how this is a bad idea. I'm real good at coming up with bad ideas.
1
Posted on 1/5/15 at 8:31 am to white perch
quote:
white perch
Just play both sides of options and hope for volatility.
If UNG is at $17, go buy a 19 call and a 15 put or vice versa. If there is high volatility then you could possibly when big on both sides of this play. This is just an example. Not sure if it answers your question or not cuz I had trouble understanding your point.
Posted on 1/5/15 at 8:34 am to jlu03
quote:
Not sure if it answers your question or not cuz I had trouble understanding your point
yes, you did. I'm not good at this whole investor lingo yet, I'm prolly gonna stay in noob territory for a while.
Posted on 1/5/15 at 9:03 am to white perch
quote:
is it possible to play off these two funds, UGAZ and DGAZ
Of course it's possible, and actually LSUForce (who started this thread) said he frequently holds both sides at the same time to hedge his bets.
That's a little different from what you're trying to do though, and it is awfully risky (not that playing with these types of funds aren't risky alone), there's just no way you can predict what these things are going to do short term.
For instance, you may jump out of UGAZ after a 50% gain like you said (which is around 6.60'ish), and jump into DGAZ, but the problem is UGAZ could very well keep going to 12 or 15, then you just fricked yourself by buying DGAZ.
Just go look at the 12 month charts for UGAZ and DGAZ and try to find some semblance of a short term pattern. It's a crapshoot.
This post was edited on 1/5/15 at 9:08 am
Posted on 1/5/15 at 9:08 am to rintintin
quote:
For instance, you may jump out of UGAZ after a 50% gain like you said (which is around 6.60'ish), and jump into DGAZ, but the problem is UGAZ could very well keep going to 12 or 15, then you just fricked yourself by buying DGAZ
correct, but i've got 2 things going for me. 1. this is play money that I dont need. 2. i have an infinite time horizon so if UGAZ just keeps going up and DGAZ down, I can just wait it out. Also, I wouldn't sell all of my UGAZ shares, just a portion, so if it keeps going up, I'll still make money and sell some at a higher price all the while buying DGAZ at a lower price (sort of dollar cost averaging between the two).
I don't know, it makes sense in my brain, but that doesn't mean much.
Either way, i'm not giving up my day job.
Posted on 1/5/15 at 9:10 am to rintintin
quote:
short term pattern
I can wait all year if I have to. Now that football is over, this is all I have until next fall.
Posted on 1/5/15 at 9:21 am to white perch
These are leveraged funds which means you have to deal with decay. You're losing value every day due to the time factor. These are not meant to be held long term.
Posted on 1/5/15 at 9:25 am to white perch
quote:
I can wait all year if I have to.
These funds decay, meaning they drop in value over time, therefore the longer you hold them, the less likely you are to make money. I don't fully understand it, it's over my head, but there has been a lot of discussion about decay in this thread. Trust me, if it was as easy as you say, plenty of people would be doing it. I had the same thought as you when I first started trading these, but have learned they are a whole different beast.
By all means do what you please, there's no better way to learn than trying it for yourself, I'm just outlining the potential risks for you.
Posted on 1/5/15 at 9:36 am to rintintin
Thanks for the advice/warning. I plan on losing all this money eventually anyway. My serious investing is all mutual funds and ETFs that are generally large cap growth.
Posted on 1/5/15 at 9:56 am to white perch
Decay simply means that the performance of a leveraged fund gets disconnected from the return on its underlying assets. It could hypothetically work in your favor. Leveraged funds are good for playing short term swings or BIG directional bets.
This post was edited on 1/5/15 at 9:59 am
Posted on 1/5/15 at 12:38 pm to sneakytiger
:frickthisshitgif:
Posted on 1/5/15 at 12:38 pm to southernelite
This.
Posted on 1/5/15 at 12:40 pm to southernelite
WTF is going on. I may get out of this and take my loss.
Posted on 1/5/15 at 12:44 pm to I Love Bama
Too much supply? The cold is here...
Posted on 1/5/15 at 12:46 pm to bayoubengals88
Posted on 1/5/15 at 12:49 pm to bayoubengals88
we'll see how it plays out later this week when the NE really gets hit. hopefully demand will sky rocket.. if I can get anywhere near $11 ( 
) I'm out of this.
) I'm out of this.Posted on 1/5/15 at 12:58 pm to I Love Bama
quote:
I may get out of this and take my loss.
I've been saying this the past 2 weeks
, it's just hard to jump out at the beginning of the coldest month of the year. I just know right when I finally do, it's gonna rocket back up.
Posted on 1/5/15 at 1:04 pm to rintintin
Yep- unless demand doesn't move, the cold should help us out. I just have no idea where the exit point is...
Posted on 1/5/15 at 1:28 pm to Crbello4Hiceman
New 52 weeks lows
I think a reverse split becomes a distinct possibility.
I think a reverse split becomes a distinct possibility.
This post was edited on 1/5/15 at 1:30 pm
Posted on 1/5/15 at 1:43 pm to Louie T
Well all I can say is this has been a very good lesson, albeit a very expensive lesson, that nothing is truly predictable in the market. Which seems so obvious, but sometimes it takes you getting knocked over the head with a tire iron to truly believe it.
I'm just glad I made this mistake with money I don't need and won't be able to touch for another 30 years. Hopefully 5-10 years from now I'll get a kick out of remembering how upset I was after losing a measly few grand in the market.
I'm just glad I made this mistake with money I don't need and won't be able to touch for another 30 years. Hopefully 5-10 years from now I'll get a kick out of remembering how upset I was after losing a measly few grand in the market.
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