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Started By
Message
Buying Opportunities Ahead of Government Shutdown
Posted on 9/28/25 at 11:50 am
Posted on 9/28/25 at 11:50 am
What are you looking to do tomorrow if we have a dip? I’ll likely buy some broad ETF shares and tax loss harvest between trading partners if the conditions look right.
Here’s what Chat GPT deep research told me. I didn’t ask about individual stocks.
——
You’re right—my bad. You asked for buying opportunities, not a pep talk. Here’s a tight, actionable playbook focused on equities (broad funds, small-caps, REITs) and gold & silver, specifically into and during U.S. government shutdowns, based on what’s actually happened the last two decades.
Shutdown Buy Playbook
0) What history says (so we can size the shots)
• Pre-shutdown dips are often the opportunity. Ahead of extended shutdowns (=10 days), the S&P 500 has typically pulled back ~10% into the deadline; the median drop during the shutdown window is only ~2%, i.e., the worst selling often happens before the doors close. ?
• During shutdowns, the S&P has been up 55% of the time, average +0.3%, with strong 12-month rebounds afterward (average ~+12–19% in studies). ?
• 2013’s 16-day shutdown: S&P +3.1% during. 2018-19’s 35-day shutdown: S&P +10.3% net over the period. ?
• Gold: tends to be a non-event for short shutdowns (2013 flat; Jan-2018 dipped then bounced after re-open). It moves more on real yields & USD than on the shutdown itself. ?
?
A) “Eve of shutdown” (T-10 to T-0 days): where I’d look to buy weakness
1) Broad U.S. equity beta — your VTSAX/VOO
Setup: Scale in if headline anxiety drives a ~5–10% pullback from recent highs into the deadline. History: pre-shutdown swoons around ~10% have been common; the “during” window is often flat/up.
Execution idea: 3 tranches in VTSAX/VOO at ~–5%, –8%, –10% from the recent swing high (or 50/100-DMA breaks).
Why: Markets often price the worst before funding lapses; resolution/relief pops tend to follow. ?
2) Small-caps (proxy if you use funds: VB / IWM / SCHM)
Setup: They typically overshoot down into risk-off and snap back fastest on relief.
Trigger: If Russell 2000 underperforms S&P by =3–5% in the 2–3 weeks pre-deadline (easy relative-strength check), start building.
Why: In 2018’s scare then 2019’s relief, small caps materially lagged into the fear and outperformed in the rebound; full-year 2019 small caps were +23.7%. ?
3) Dividend-tilt core — SCHD
Setup: Add on broad-market weakness if your goal is durable cash flow.
Why: Shutdowns don’t typically impair earnings power across the high-quality dividend cohort; they mostly compress multiples temporarily. Historical shutdown windows show limited equity damage and strong 6–12m recoveries. ?
4) REITs (VNQ/SCHH as proxies)
Setup: Look if 10Y yield rolls over (safe-haven bid) into the deadline.
Trigger: If the 10Y falls 20–40 bps into the window, leg into REITs—funding costs ease, and REITs often lag during rate spikes but outperform in the following 6–12 months after rates peak. ?
5) Gold & Silver (GLD / SLV; optional)
Setup: Not a must-buy on shutdowns alone; add tactically if data blackout increases macro uncertainty.
Why: A prolonged shutdown delays key data (jobs/CPI), which can buoy gold as the Fed flies with less visibility. But absent that, metals have been muted in past shutdowns. ?
?
B) During the shutdown (Week 1–4): what to buy if we’re already closed
1) Buy continuation strength, not just dips, in VTSAX/VOO
If the tape is firm or grinding higher during closure (2013/2019 template), add on shallow pullbacks (–1.5% to –3%) instead of waiting for a big air-pocket that may not come. ?
2) Lean harder into small-caps if credit holds
Monitor credit (no HY spread blowout) and real-time breadth. If both are stable, increase VB/IWM on red days—historically the snap-back beta lives here post-resolution. ?
3) REITs on rate rollover
If Treasury yields keep slipping while equities stabilize, add a second REIT tranche—historically underperformance during rising-rate stints flips to outperformance 6–12m later. ?
4) Gold/Silver if the shutdown is extended
Add GLD/SLV only if the closure drags and BLS/BEA releases go dark (higher policy uncertainty). Otherwise, metals are often noise in short shutdowns. ?
?
C) On resolution (deal headlines / CR passes)
• Add a final tranche to VTSAX/VOO and small-caps on the first “relief gap” if the gap-up is <1.5% (often there’s follow-through).
• Historically, 12-month post-shutdown returns are robust (double-digit averages in multiple studies). ?
?
D) How I’d map this to your specific funds
• Core beta: VTSAX or VOO in 2–3 tranches on pre-deadline weakness (–5/–8/–10%). ?
• Dividend tilt: SCHD on the same schedule if you want quality + income through noise. ?
• International sleeve: VTIAX only if the USD is backing off; shutdowns are a U.S. story—FX is the bigger driver for VTIAX. (Gold tends to move with the dollar/real yields regime more than shutdowns.) ?
• Small-cap sleeve: Add VB/SCHM into pre-deadline underperformance (=3–5% vs SPX) and again on resolution strength. ?
• REITs: VNQ/SCHH if 10Y yield inflects lower into/during shutdown. ?
• Metals: GLD/SLV only if we see data delays / policy-visibility shock or a meaningful USD downdraft; otherwise deprioritize. ?
?
E) Fast guardrails (when not to buy the dip)
• If the selloff is credit-led (HY spreads ripping wider) vs. headline-led—stand down on high-beta (small-caps/REITs).
• If the shutdown couples with a debt-ceiling accident (different animal) or a sharp rise in real yields—metals > equities.
• If the tape ignores bad headlines (flat/up during closure like 2013), don’t over-wait for a “perfect” dip—use strength entries. ?
?
Why this should work now
• Markets have often priced the fear before, not during, closures; pre-deadline dips ˜ opportunity, and post-resolution performance skews positive. ?
• A longer shutdown could delay data, elevating uncertainty (a tailwind to gold) while equities typically stabilize once a deal is visible. ?
If you want, I can convert this into a simple 3-tranche checklist keyed to your tickers (VTSAX/VOO/SCHD/VTIAX + small-cap + REITs + GLD/SLV) with % allocations—but the core signals above are the buyable moments.
Here’s what Chat GPT deep research told me. I didn’t ask about individual stocks.
——
You’re right—my bad. You asked for buying opportunities, not a pep talk. Here’s a tight, actionable playbook focused on equities (broad funds, small-caps, REITs) and gold & silver, specifically into and during U.S. government shutdowns, based on what’s actually happened the last two decades.
Shutdown Buy Playbook
0) What history says (so we can size the shots)
• Pre-shutdown dips are often the opportunity. Ahead of extended shutdowns (=10 days), the S&P 500 has typically pulled back ~10% into the deadline; the median drop during the shutdown window is only ~2%, i.e., the worst selling often happens before the doors close. ?
• During shutdowns, the S&P has been up 55% of the time, average +0.3%, with strong 12-month rebounds afterward (average ~+12–19% in studies). ?
• 2013’s 16-day shutdown: S&P +3.1% during. 2018-19’s 35-day shutdown: S&P +10.3% net over the period. ?
• Gold: tends to be a non-event for short shutdowns (2013 flat; Jan-2018 dipped then bounced after re-open). It moves more on real yields & USD than on the shutdown itself. ?
?
A) “Eve of shutdown” (T-10 to T-0 days): where I’d look to buy weakness
1) Broad U.S. equity beta — your VTSAX/VOO
Setup: Scale in if headline anxiety drives a ~5–10% pullback from recent highs into the deadline. History: pre-shutdown swoons around ~10% have been common; the “during” window is often flat/up.
Execution idea: 3 tranches in VTSAX/VOO at ~–5%, –8%, –10% from the recent swing high (or 50/100-DMA breaks).
Why: Markets often price the worst before funding lapses; resolution/relief pops tend to follow. ?
2) Small-caps (proxy if you use funds: VB / IWM / SCHM)
Setup: They typically overshoot down into risk-off and snap back fastest on relief.
Trigger: If Russell 2000 underperforms S&P by =3–5% in the 2–3 weeks pre-deadline (easy relative-strength check), start building.
Why: In 2018’s scare then 2019’s relief, small caps materially lagged into the fear and outperformed in the rebound; full-year 2019 small caps were +23.7%. ?
3) Dividend-tilt core — SCHD
Setup: Add on broad-market weakness if your goal is durable cash flow.
Why: Shutdowns don’t typically impair earnings power across the high-quality dividend cohort; they mostly compress multiples temporarily. Historical shutdown windows show limited equity damage and strong 6–12m recoveries. ?
4) REITs (VNQ/SCHH as proxies)
Setup: Look if 10Y yield rolls over (safe-haven bid) into the deadline.
Trigger: If the 10Y falls 20–40 bps into the window, leg into REITs—funding costs ease, and REITs often lag during rate spikes but outperform in the following 6–12 months after rates peak. ?
5) Gold & Silver (GLD / SLV; optional)
Setup: Not a must-buy on shutdowns alone; add tactically if data blackout increases macro uncertainty.
Why: A prolonged shutdown delays key data (jobs/CPI), which can buoy gold as the Fed flies with less visibility. But absent that, metals have been muted in past shutdowns. ?
?
B) During the shutdown (Week 1–4): what to buy if we’re already closed
1) Buy continuation strength, not just dips, in VTSAX/VOO
If the tape is firm or grinding higher during closure (2013/2019 template), add on shallow pullbacks (–1.5% to –3%) instead of waiting for a big air-pocket that may not come. ?
2) Lean harder into small-caps if credit holds
Monitor credit (no HY spread blowout) and real-time breadth. If both are stable, increase VB/IWM on red days—historically the snap-back beta lives here post-resolution. ?
3) REITs on rate rollover
If Treasury yields keep slipping while equities stabilize, add a second REIT tranche—historically underperformance during rising-rate stints flips to outperformance 6–12m later. ?
4) Gold/Silver if the shutdown is extended
Add GLD/SLV only if the closure drags and BLS/BEA releases go dark (higher policy uncertainty). Otherwise, metals are often noise in short shutdowns. ?
?
C) On resolution (deal headlines / CR passes)
• Add a final tranche to VTSAX/VOO and small-caps on the first “relief gap” if the gap-up is <1.5% (often there’s follow-through).
• Historically, 12-month post-shutdown returns are robust (double-digit averages in multiple studies). ?
?
D) How I’d map this to your specific funds
• Core beta: VTSAX or VOO in 2–3 tranches on pre-deadline weakness (–5/–8/–10%). ?
• Dividend tilt: SCHD on the same schedule if you want quality + income through noise. ?
• International sleeve: VTIAX only if the USD is backing off; shutdowns are a U.S. story—FX is the bigger driver for VTIAX. (Gold tends to move with the dollar/real yields regime more than shutdowns.) ?
• Small-cap sleeve: Add VB/SCHM into pre-deadline underperformance (=3–5% vs SPX) and again on resolution strength. ?
• REITs: VNQ/SCHH if 10Y yield inflects lower into/during shutdown. ?
• Metals: GLD/SLV only if we see data delays / policy-visibility shock or a meaningful USD downdraft; otherwise deprioritize. ?
?
E) Fast guardrails (when not to buy the dip)
• If the selloff is credit-led (HY spreads ripping wider) vs. headline-led—stand down on high-beta (small-caps/REITs).
• If the shutdown couples with a debt-ceiling accident (different animal) or a sharp rise in real yields—metals > equities.
• If the tape ignores bad headlines (flat/up during closure like 2013), don’t over-wait for a “perfect” dip—use strength entries. ?
?
Why this should work now
• Markets have often priced the fear before, not during, closures; pre-deadline dips ˜ opportunity, and post-resolution performance skews positive. ?
• A longer shutdown could delay data, elevating uncertainty (a tailwind to gold) while equities typically stabilize once a deal is visible. ?
If you want, I can convert this into a simple 3-tranche checklist keyed to your tickers (VTSAX/VOO/SCHD/VTIAX + small-cap + REITs + GLD/SLV) with % allocations—but the core signals above are the buyable moments.
3
Posted on 9/28/25 at 12:11 pm to SaintsTiger
Isn’t the reciprocal question also, what are you selling at 9:01 AM tomorrow morning and then picking back up?
Posted on 9/28/25 at 2:02 pm to SaintsTiger
Does anyone think there will be a shutdown? Don't we go through this song and dance every few months
Posted on 9/28/25 at 2:36 pm to UltimaParadox
I believe there is going to be a shutdown, but it's a non-factor for stock market.
Posted on 9/28/25 at 2:42 pm to UltimaParadox
quote:
Does anyone think there will be a shutdown? Don't we go through this song and dance every few months
Very likely. Dems have no other leverage, so they will hold out for a little while at least.
Posted on 9/28/25 at 3:07 pm to Suntiger
Maybe a long term and intermediate bond etf could be a nice 1 week play?
Posted on 9/28/25 at 3:21 pm to UltimaParadox
quote:
Does anyone think there will be a shutdown? Don't we go through this song and dance every few months
Historically there are dips in anticipation of a shutdown. So irrespective if we actually get one or not, the fear and scare mongering headlines are likely to cause a dip.
Posted on 9/28/25 at 3:26 pm to dstone12
quote:
Isn’t the reciprocal question also, what are you selling at 9:01 AM tomorrow morning and then picking back up?
Sure, personally I wouldn’t do that because I don’t know what will dip and I’m a buy and hold investor for the most part.
Posted on 9/28/25 at 4:20 pm to SaintsTiger
Grok
Shutdowns rarely derail long-term trends; the S&P 500 has gained a median 19% in the 12 months after major events (e.g., +26% post-2018).
- Boeing edges out others as the "best" single stock historically due to its recurrence across datasets, but gold-related names like NEM shine in prolonged uncertainty.
- Past performance isn't a guarantee—focus on diversified portfolios. For current risks (e.g., potential 2025 shutdown), monitor sectors like energy (+3-5% average in prior events per Raymond James).
Shutdowns rarely derail long-term trends; the S&P 500 has gained a median 19% in the 12 months after major events (e.g., +26% post-2018).
- Boeing edges out others as the "best" single stock historically due to its recurrence across datasets, but gold-related names like NEM shine in prolonged uncertainty.
- Past performance isn't a guarantee—focus on diversified portfolios. For current risks (e.g., potential 2025 shutdown), monitor sectors like energy (+3-5% average in prior events per Raymond James).
Posted on 9/28/25 at 7:34 pm to volinktown
quote:
I believe there is going to be a shutdown, but it's a non-factor for stock market.
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