- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Winter Olympics
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: GOOG trading at 52 wk low
Posted on 11/13/08 at 2:11 pm to MileHigh
Posted on 11/13/08 at 2:11 pm to MileHigh
and, to get back on topic, Google. FWIW, I still like Google and Apple both. Aside from whatever their current products are, they have structured themselves so as to essentially be black swan factories. They just tinker and play around until something hits. And every now and then something BIG hits.
1
Posted on 11/13/08 at 2:11 pm to Nicodemus
quote:
How can anyone guess with any accuracy whatsoever how low the price will go?
they can't.
quote:
One thing I learned while studying for the CFA exam is that study after study has shown that timing the market with consistency is impossible.
Ok. I would point out that many people who had their CFA have their lunches eaten in the last 6 months. Why is that?
Posted on 11/13/08 at 2:16 pm to MileHigh
quote:
Ok. I would point out that many people who had their CFA have their lunches eaten in the last 6 months. Why is that?
There are a lot of CFAs who follow quantitative methods instead of value investing. However, you can not judge any investor over a 6 month period or in this market. An investor should be judged over at least a 5 year period to account for short-term volatility.
Posted on 11/13/08 at 2:17 pm to MileHigh
quote:
I would point out that many people who had their CFA have their lunches eaten in the last 6 months
I recently found a saturday morning investment radio show that I listen to in order to get a feel for what the suckers are doing.
Posted on 11/13/08 at 2:19 pm to Colonel Hapablap
quote:
and, to get back on topic, Google. FWIW, I still like Google and Apple both. Aside from whatever their current products are, they have structured themselves so as to essentially be black swan factories. They just tinker and play around until something hits. And every now and then something BIG hits.
Very true. But the key to their consistent success is that they also stick to their core competencies. Google, while it has all of those side projects going which may or may not pay off, still focuses a lot on online advertising and makes that vast majority of their cash from that. I have not researched Apple as thoroughly as I have Google, but it seems that they stick to their core products of the iphone and the MAC computers and find new and innovative ways to build upon that by creating new, separable products that still benefit from those core products (think itunes).
Posted on 11/13/08 at 2:21 pm to MileHigh
quote:
I would point out that many people who had their CFA have their lunches eaten in the last 6 months. Why is that?
Because much like the analyst I speak of, they make their valuations and stock selections based on current or past economic trends and earngings, etc. If the market tanks and the economy goes downhill, what good do all of those P/E ratios and historical performances do for you?
I like the case that has been laid out for GOOG on this thread and I will def. be watching it now.
Posted on 11/13/08 at 2:23 pm to Nicodemus
quote:
There are a lot of CFAs who follow quantitative methods instead of value investing. However, you can not judge any investor over a 6 month period or in this market. An investor should be judged over at least a 5 year period to account for short-term volatility.
a) I think unless you "timed" the market and got out recently or picked your stocks well, you probably have lost your shirt.
b) The king of value investing warren buffet has lost a tremendous amount of money in the last year. Historically he has done well, but over the last five years, he has averaged about 4-6% returns. This is nothing to write home about.
c) We are in a black swan event. You to need to look at all of your assumptions if you are going to do well.
Posted on 11/13/08 at 2:25 pm to MileHigh
quote:
I think unless you "timed" the market and got out recently or picked your stocks well, you probably have lost your shirt.
If you did not sell your positions and are, therefore, sitting on unrealized losses, what does it matter? If you picked the stocks well, it will come back up.
Posted on 11/13/08 at 2:26 pm to Nicodemus
Definitely a huge GOOG fan long-term.
Nico, I'm about to start grad school for a M.S. in Tax, and to start taking the CPA next spring. I had the thought that the CFA would also be a good certification to add on. Do you think it has/will enhance your career, and how would you gauge the difficulty of the exam thus far? I've been led to believe it is accounting-heavy, which would be an obvious advantage for me. Appreciate any info you care to share.
Nico, I'm about to start grad school for a M.S. in Tax, and to start taking the CPA next spring. I had the thought that the CFA would also be a good certification to add on. Do you think it has/will enhance your career, and how would you gauge the difficulty of the exam thus far? I've been led to believe it is accounting-heavy, which would be an obvious advantage for me. Appreciate any info you care to share.
Posted on 11/13/08 at 2:28 pm to MileHigh
quote:
The king of value investing warren buffet has lost a tremendous amount of money in the last year. Historically he has done well, but over the last five years, he has averaged about 4-6% returns. This is nothing to write home about.
It is very hard to move the bottom line when you are a $118 billion company. It is the law of diminishing returns. You can not judge his ideals based on his current company. If he started from scratch he would have the same great returns as he did way back when.
"We are in a black swan event. You to need to look at all of your assumptions if you are going to do well."
I have that book sitting on my shelf at home, but I have not yet read it. However, I would say that you should constantly be reassessing your assumptions to maximize performance.
Posted on 11/13/08 at 2:29 pm to Nicodemus
quote:
I have that book sitting on my shelf at home, but I have not yet read it.
GO home and do it. Seriously.
Posted on 11/13/08 at 2:30 pm to Nicodemus
quote:
If you did not sell your positions and are, therefore, sitting on unrealized losses, what does it matter? If you picked the stocks well, it will come back up.
how can you be so sure? What was a good pick last year may be a terrible pick now, just simply b.c the market has been turned upside down.
quote:
I have not yet read it.
Read it. and think about what is going on with this credit bubble.
Posted on 11/13/08 at 2:37 pm to kfizzle85
quote:
Nico, I'm about to start grad school for a M.S. in Tax, and to start taking the CPA next spring. I had the thought that the CFA would also be a good certification to add on. Do you think it has/will enhance your career, and how would you gauge the difficulty of the exam thus far? I've been led to believe it is accounting-heavy, which would be an obvious advantage for me. Appreciate any info you care to share.
I have a M.S. in accounting. I was told that a CPA/CFA combination was seen by recruiters as equivalent to an MBA (which is more marketable than an M.S. in accounting or tax), so it is definitely beneficial.
Level I of the CFA exam is very accounting heavy, so it was very easy for me. However, it is definitely a commitment that most accounting firms or companies will not pay for. It costs approximately $400 to register with the CFA Institute, then $600 or so to register for the Level I exam (which includes the cost of the books they require you buy from them). If you want to take a review course (which most people do but I did not) you are looking at another $1800 to $2000. That is just Level I.
Also, you are only allowed to take one section at a time and they only offer Level I twice a year and Levels II and III once a year. So you are looking at a minimum 3 year commitment and, if you use a review course for each Level, over $8,000 in cost, all told.
Once you pass, you then have to have the experience requirements of 4 years. They may not consider tax work as relevant experience. I am an external auditor and will be lobbying them to consider that as relevant experience.
I personally think it is worth it, but you may think otherwise.
Posted on 11/13/08 at 2:59 pm to Nicodemus
F' an MBA, I'd prefer to actually gain some knowledge. The M.S. in Tax isn't a certainty, I really haven't made my mind up yet, to be honest. I thought it would be a good balance to have all three. Financial accounting is definitely what I would like to focus on, but I'm not sure how to translate that into a job. Almost every one I know has ended up at CPA firms doing tax or auditing, and the people who majored in finance are either unemployed, in law school, or doing internal audit (if they did the cia classes at lsu).
Posted on 11/13/08 at 3:06 pm to kfizzle85
quote:
F' an MBA, I'd prefer to actually gain some knowledge. The M.S. in Tax isn't a certainty, I really haven't made my mind up yet, to be honest. I thought it would be a good balance to have all three. Financial accounting is definitely what I would like to focus on, but I'm not sure how to translate that into a job. Almost every one I know has ended up at CPA firms doing tax or auditing, and the people who majored in finance are either unemployed, in law school, or doing internal audit (if they did the cia classes at lsu).
I work for a CPA firm and, while I am in audit, the tax people seem to really love their job. You can't go wrong do that for a while. It definitely opens doors later on that would probably not be opened if you went straight into industry. A degree in accounting is more sought after than a degree in finance right now. F' being unemployed, going to law school, and especially internal audit.
You may not want to limit yourself to getting a M.S. in tax, though. An M.S. in accounting is just as good for CPA firms (if you want to go into tax) but also allows for other opportunities if you decide tax is not right for you.
Posted on 11/13/08 at 3:15 pm to Nicodemus
I'll probably get the M.S. in Tax, with a Concentration in Audit, or vice versa. I have no idea what kind weight a concentration carries, but my guess is very little. The way UNO's Master's program is set up though, there's no reason not to get it.
I actually like the dorkiness of taxation, I just don't want to pigeonhole myself. I honestly haven't done enough audit-related stuff to know whether or not I would like that.
My primary goals are 1) get a job in accounting, and 2) pass the CPA. Everything after that, CFA included, is just additional, long-term stuff that I've been considering. I don't want to go straight into industry, I know I need to work at a firm for a few years to solidify my understanding of accounting and really maximize the degree/knowledge, I just want to be able to move on after I feel like I've achieved that particular milestone/goal.
I actually like the dorkiness of taxation, I just don't want to pigeonhole myself. I honestly haven't done enough audit-related stuff to know whether or not I would like that.
My primary goals are 1) get a job in accounting, and 2) pass the CPA. Everything after that, CFA included, is just additional, long-term stuff that I've been considering. I don't want to go straight into industry, I know I need to work at a firm for a few years to solidify my understanding of accounting and really maximize the degree/knowledge, I just want to be able to move on after I feel like I've achieved that particular milestone/goal.
Posted on 11/13/08 at 4:20 pm to MileHigh
quote:
c) We are in a black swan event
But doesn't a black swan have to be an unpredictable event? The advice I received was to get out of the market last October, so I did. The sound reasoning was an overextended credit market, right?
How is that a black swan?
Posted on 11/13/08 at 4:28 pm to Willie Stroker
quote:
How is that a black swan?
Read the article linked to in the Liar's Poker thread a little further down the board. It's an account of the Hedge Fund manager who may well have helped tip the house of cards over. It sounds like most people building the house of cards did appear to be blindsided by the house falling down.
Posted on 11/13/08 at 4:35 pm to Willie Stroker
quote:
But doesn't a black swan have to be an unpredictable event? The advice I received was to get out of the market last October, so I did. The sound reasoning was an overextended credit market, right?
How is that a black swan?
black swans are just long tail events, i.e. that are rare and not anticipated. If the event had been anticipated, people would have lost a lot less money.
A black swan does not preclude someone from identifying it before it occurs. In fact, he goes on at length how you can attempt to identify what areas are ripe for a black swan to make money.
Posted on 11/13/08 at 5:36 pm to MileHigh
As a test, I just took a look at threads on this board started last August and found a couple of alarming remarks that were fairly accurate and indicated a significant drop that would last months and beyond:
8/22/07: Somebody bought a shitload of SPY September Calls today
10/19/07: Bloodbath today
11/9/07: Bank stocks
11/21/07: Greenspan: "Professor" Broke horribly wrong
11/26/07: Summers warns of deepening crisis
12/5/07: They are actually going to do it
12/12/07: Forget subprime: there is still a ticking time bomb
12/26/07: Ticking time bomb at Fannie
Sorry, but even on this board it just doesn't look like this was a black swan, unless we roll the clocks back beyond last year maybe.
8/22/07: Somebody bought a shitload of SPY September Calls today
10/19/07: Bloodbath today
11/9/07: Bank stocks
11/21/07: Greenspan: "Professor" Broke horribly wrong
11/26/07: Summers warns of deepening crisis
12/5/07: They are actually going to do it
12/12/07: Forget subprime: there is still a ticking time bomb
12/26/07: Ticking time bomb at Fannie
Sorry, but even on this board it just doesn't look like this was a black swan, unless we roll the clocks back beyond last year maybe.
Page 2 of 3
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News