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Message
re: Investing In Tesla
Posted on 4/29/17 at 11:52 am to dabigfella
Posted on 4/29/17 at 11:52 am to dabigfella
You worried about lithium supplies? Takes a long time to expand lithium production because we haven't improved the production technologies in a long time.
1
Posted on 4/29/17 at 11:55 am to geauxbears08
The only thing Im worried about with Tesla is Elon Musk, as long as he's alive, its going to be fine. I know its alot to invest in one man, but sans musk tesla loses alot. He's that vital to the company and its future.
Posted on 4/29/17 at 12:00 pm to dabigfella
Agreed. I'm just wondering aloud if lithium production is the place to be investing...
I'm thinking about establishing a long straddle position next week. If anything is certain, TSLA is either way overvalued or way undervalued. The data provided after the launch of the 35k car will give a huge change one direction or another.
I'm thinking about establishing a long straddle position next week. If anything is certain, TSLA is either way overvalued or way undervalued. The data provided after the launch of the 35k car will give a huge change one direction or another.
Posted on 4/29/17 at 12:01 pm to LSURussian
FWIW Russian, the CEO of Volkwagen said yesterday that the future of driving is indeed electric, and proposed a $10B investment in electric cars which is nice to see
LINK
LINK
quote:
Volkswagen chief executive Matthias Müller conceded that “the future of driving is electric” and they plan to be part of it, but they are having trouble reconciling it with their current internal combustion engine business.
Posted on 4/29/17 at 12:04 pm to dabigfella
quote:
FWIW Russian, the CEO of Volkwagen said yesterday that the future of driving is indeed electric, and proposed a $10B investment in electric cars which is nice to see
Remember when i said a had a buddy who worked for a large car company...
Posted on 4/29/17 at 12:05 pm to geauxbears08
quote:
I'm thinking about establishing a long straddle position next week. If anything is certain, TSLA is either way overvalued or way undervalued. The data provided after the launch of the 35k car will give a huge change one direction or another.
Here's my thing, is tesla overheated right now? Yes/No. On a multiyear view, the chart is just breaking out of a 3 year box, thats a huge thing if its not a false breakout, like I said, from a measured move standpoint technically, $400s are in play if it holds after earnings. The issue recently was potentially workers strike before model 3 launch, and that was resolved the other day. Overall I think Musk knows the numbers will be great this week, bc why else would he recently tweet "stormy weather in shortville". If he was about to have an awful Q, he would look like such a jackass tweeting that and the bears would troll him forever. Like I said 14k cars sold in q1 last year, 26k sold this year, so you're looking at nearly 100% revenue growth, i think we go over it honestly, but we shall see.
Thats my take on the coming er
Posted on 4/29/17 at 12:07 pm to barry
haha good call, but here's the thing man, this is the same VW with the dieselgate scandal, they will sell EV's no doubt, but will any of the green people who support tesla buy one? No chance in hell. It's nice to see them talk about it but lets see when and where we get gigafactory plans and plans for a worldwide network of superchargers, but yes im thrilled, more adoption is great for tesla in the long run.
I dont really buy it man bc like I said earlier they're too tied to ICE assets, that same link also says
so I just dont believe it man and thats what Ive said all along, they say one thing but stay on the current path. If electric cars are the future, then why the F would you invest $22b in the gas powered engine and $10B on the electric cars?
I dont really buy it man bc like I said earlier they're too tied to ICE assets, that same link also says
quote:
Volkswagen plans to spend $22 billion over the next 5 years to develop more efficient engines. It shows a little contradiction in what Müller is saying. He says that “the future of driving is electric”, but the company is still investing more in internal combustion engines than electric motors.
so I just dont believe it man and thats what Ive said all along, they say one thing but stay on the current path. If electric cars are the future, then why the F would you invest $22b in the gas powered engine and $10B on the electric cars?
This post was edited on 4/29/17 at 12:11 pm
Posted on 4/29/17 at 1:17 pm to dabigfella
quote:
then why the F would you invest $22b in the gas powered engine and $10B on the electric cars?
For a large established company that is a HUGE shift in CAPEX spend. What do you want them to do? They are steering an aircraft carrier, you can't just pull the e-brake on that bitch and spin it around. You'll capsize.
quote:
but will any of the green people who support tesla buy one? No chance in hell.
Please...do you know how short human's attention spans are to corporate mishaps?
Posted on 4/29/17 at 1:32 pm to barry
quote:
Please...do you know how short human's attention spans are to corporate mishaps?
Its one thing to have random security guards who didn't even work for united assault a customer. That's not gonna stop me from flying on united but you're talking about these "green" people who support the cause of tesla, Im not one of those people myself, but Im talking the women with hemp purses,dresses,etc. Those types will never forgive VW for blatantly lying about what they were doing to mother earth.
Again I hope its true and I VW dives into the BEV as they said but with those comments, Im skeptical. Look GM promised us 50,000 bolts would be sold, 3 full months in, they have sold just a handful, and 50,000 is not happening. Big Auto just keeps talking about this huge shift to the BEV that they're working on and yet BMW launches an 80 mile i3, nissan launches 107 mi lef, and Chevy launches a decent car nobody wants.....so either they're not marketing them properly, or they're not capable of making a decent one people want, but for whatever reason you want to believe, Tesla is launching incredible BEV's while all the offerings big auto is putting out are mediocre at best......and thats all I've been saying all along, if its so easy to do, why is nobody else jumping in and giving tesla run for their money.
Posted on 4/29/17 at 1:33 pm to dabigfella
quote:
Oil will never see $75 again. It wont, they're literally finding oil in every nook and cranny on earth, we're drowning in oil at this point frankly.Thats my ban bet, $75 oil and its adios bigfella.
Bye
Posted on 4/29/17 at 1:38 pm to TigerDeBaiter
not yet cupcake, when oil gets to $75 ill go, thats 50% from here, wait till then to wave goodbye to me. Its been 3 years since we've seen those prices and I see nothing on the horizon thats sending us back. Geez you oil bulls are something, I have millions in invested in gas stations selling fuel and even Im bearish on the price of oil due to the seemingly limitless supply of it. One thing I know for damn sure is peak oil is not a real thing. I actually pray somehow oil spikes again, that will only drive more people to electric cars, but sadly that wont happen again, oil at high prices is done.
So we're like 9 pages into this thread, and of course the few exxon comments russian made got a bunch of upvotes and we have yet to see someone lay out a bearish thesis on tesla other than the alleged fact they build $100k cars and lose $22k per car. Is anyone going to take a stab and give us a legit bearish thesis or will we continue with snarky comments and input from someones edward jones advisor who probably prefers ford stock bc of its p/e ratio at this juncture? I get it really, lots on this board work in o&g, I remember how much pain was felt when this all began in 2014, so I dont expect alot of you guys who lost a fortune on oil stocks and lost jobs or saw friends and family lose jobs to love the BEV......but facts are facts its got 18 moving parts and is faster and more efficient vs the 2000+ part internal combustion engine......so still, Im looking for a rational discussion about why this isn't the beginning of a paradigm shift and not Tesla loses money ROFL its worthless,etc.
So we're like 9 pages into this thread, and of course the few exxon comments russian made got a bunch of upvotes and we have yet to see someone lay out a bearish thesis on tesla other than the alleged fact they build $100k cars and lose $22k per car. Is anyone going to take a stab and give us a legit bearish thesis or will we continue with snarky comments and input from someones edward jones advisor who probably prefers ford stock bc of its p/e ratio at this juncture? I get it really, lots on this board work in o&g, I remember how much pain was felt when this all began in 2014, so I dont expect alot of you guys who lost a fortune on oil stocks and lost jobs or saw friends and family lose jobs to love the BEV......but facts are facts its got 18 moving parts and is faster and more efficient vs the 2000+ part internal combustion engine......so still, Im looking for a rational discussion about why this isn't the beginning of a paradigm shift and not Tesla loses money ROFL its worthless,etc.
This post was edited on 4/29/17 at 1:53 pm
Posted on 4/29/17 at 2:07 pm to dabigfella
(I apologize for the length of this reply to you.)
I don't suppose he'd have any incentive to try and get back on those governments good side, right?
I know I said I'm out of this thread but I just now saw a news release from yesterday where XOM reported a doubling of their quarterly profits year-over-year for the Q1, 2017. And those profits comfortably exceeded their dividend payout for Q1.
Some thoughts about your "oil will never hit $75/barrel again" statement.
First of all, no ban bet. I enjoy your posts too much to see you stop posting.
Secondly, I've gone through these oil price swings before....too many times to count.
I can remember in the early 1980's when the price of oil went to $120/barrel. There were 'experts' saying "we'd never see <$100/barrel oil again." Some of them were forecasting $200/barrel oil. Banks were lending to independent oil producers at an astounding rate based on those forecasts. Anybody who knew how to punch a hole in the ground became oil drillers. And they discovered a shite-load of new oil reserves.
Literally thousands of those banks were taken over by the FDIC within 7 years, including the largest bank failure up to that time, Continental Illinois Bank in Chicago (which became the largest oil and gas lending bank in the country), because by 1986 oil fell to $25/barrel. Those wildcat drillers couldn't repay their loans.
So we were told by the same experts that oil would never again go over $50/barrel. There was just "too much oil being produced." So, of course, four years later oil hit $72/barrel.
And that's when oil prices really got silly.
By 1994 oil was back down to $25. It went back up to $40. In 1998 it dropped to $18. Big Oil was "dead" forever!
In June, 2008, oil hit $155/barrel. Six months later in January, 2009, oil fell to $48/barrel.
By April, 2011, oil was back to $115/barrel. Early last year oil fell to $30/barrel. Today it's around $50/barrel.
See where I'm going with this?
Oil prices are self-regulating: when the price goes up, there's more incentive to drill which leads to more production which leads to lower prices. When prices fall, there is less incentive to explore and drill which leads to a decline in inventories, which results in price increases. Wash, rinse, repeat....
Three years ago there were 1,800+ oil and gas rigs drilling in the U.S. That number dropped to less than 420 last year.
So, yes, Virginia, oil will hit $75/barrel again. And even $100+/barrel again. When? I don't know. I don't really care when it happens. I just know it will and probably sooner rather than later.
Third, it's fascinating you're arguing against your own TSLA interest when you say oil will never go back over $75 again.
All-electric cars are in higher demand when the price of oil is high which translates to higher prices for gasoline.
If oil stays at the $50/barrel level for an extended period of time, it's going to dampen the demand for Tesla's all-electric cars.
quote:He is the same car company CEO who admitted his company intentionally falsified emission data in reporting to various governments in order to pass pollution standards around the world.
FWIW Russian, the CEO of Volkwagen said yesterday that the future of driving is indeed electric,
I don't suppose he'd have any incentive to try and get back on those governments good side, right?
I know I said I'm out of this thread but I just now saw a news release from yesterday where XOM reported a doubling of their quarterly profits year-over-year for the Q1, 2017. And those profits comfortably exceeded their dividend payout for Q1.
Some thoughts about your "oil will never hit $75/barrel again" statement.
First of all, no ban bet. I enjoy your posts too much to see you stop posting.
Secondly, I've gone through these oil price swings before....too many times to count.
I can remember in the early 1980's when the price of oil went to $120/barrel. There were 'experts' saying "we'd never see <$100/barrel oil again." Some of them were forecasting $200/barrel oil. Banks were lending to independent oil producers at an astounding rate based on those forecasts. Anybody who knew how to punch a hole in the ground became oil drillers. And they discovered a shite-load of new oil reserves.
Literally thousands of those banks were taken over by the FDIC within 7 years, including the largest bank failure up to that time, Continental Illinois Bank in Chicago (which became the largest oil and gas lending bank in the country), because by 1986 oil fell to $25/barrel. Those wildcat drillers couldn't repay their loans.
So we were told by the same experts that oil would never again go over $50/barrel. There was just "too much oil being produced." So, of course, four years later oil hit $72/barrel.
And that's when oil prices really got silly.
By 1994 oil was back down to $25. It went back up to $40. In 1998 it dropped to $18. Big Oil was "dead" forever!
In June, 2008, oil hit $155/barrel. Six months later in January, 2009, oil fell to $48/barrel.
By April, 2011, oil was back to $115/barrel. Early last year oil fell to $30/barrel. Today it's around $50/barrel.
See where I'm going with this?
Oil prices are self-regulating: when the price goes up, there's more incentive to drill which leads to more production which leads to lower prices. When prices fall, there is less incentive to explore and drill which leads to a decline in inventories, which results in price increases. Wash, rinse, repeat....
Three years ago there were 1,800+ oil and gas rigs drilling in the U.S. That number dropped to less than 420 last year.
So, yes, Virginia, oil will hit $75/barrel again. And even $100+/barrel again. When? I don't know. I don't really care when it happens. I just know it will and probably sooner rather than later.
Third, it's fascinating you're arguing against your own TSLA interest when you say oil will never go back over $75 again.
All-electric cars are in higher demand when the price of oil is high which translates to higher prices for gasoline.
If oil stays at the $50/barrel level for an extended period of time, it's going to dampen the demand for Tesla's all-electric cars.
Posted on 4/29/17 at 2:22 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Third, it's fascinating you're arguing against your own TSLA interest when you say oil will never go back over $75 again.
All-electric cars are in higher demand when the price of oil is high which translates to higher prices for gasoline.
If oil stays at the $50/barrel level for an extended period of time, it's going to dampen the demand for Tesla's all-electric cars.
See I think this is where you're wrong, and the 600k preorders are a testament to this... I think people in general man have had enough of the auto industry and the way it is currently. The sales process sucks vs Tesla's sales process. There are no games when buying a tesla. Most people go to mechanics and you have no idea WTF is going, remember that seinfeld episode where costanza was at the dealer and joking how its always a ripoff and mentioned," a johnson rod, well thats a johnson rod". That's what mechanics are like, european cars are notoriously more complex than american cars, but either way both are insanely complex machines that require extensive and expensive service. A tesla bc of its simplicity, requires literally nothing: no oil changes, no transmission, etc.
I used to own a Ferrari and I would take it for service and the most mundane thing like the water pump or would require dropping the entire engine at an insane cost just to get it fixed. We're talking every 15,000 on a high performance car like that the timing belts would need changing at costs of nearly $8,000. Back then we would pay that to get performance like that bc it just never existed unless you paid top dollar. Now when that car was designed, we didn't have batteries that could send you to 60 in 2.2 seconds so people payed that price and the service costs required to basically have a street legal race car.
Today though, we have these batteries and they give you all the performance of the most amazing supercars on the road for a fraction of the cost, and with none of the service. Realistically with the way battery costs are dropping, they're project $75 in a couple years, you're talking a 100 kwh/br battery that will outperform any $1M+ supercar will cost $7500....that means a regular 40-50 kwh battery which is still great in a regular size car will be about $3750. That $3750 power plant will require no service
So you'll have all these cars that need a few thousand a year in gas + service + countless other issues that arise with cars or you could have this BEV, tesla or not, that has none of those issues, comparable range, and really no hiccups.
I think its hard to say the BEV isn't better in every single way as it is today, tesla or not again, but at this point only tesla seems to be taking the industry seriously. If there was someone else going gangbusters investing in the BEV I would invest in them too, I suppose im just interested in the shift of gas to electric power plants, but to this juncture nobody has an investable future that I want to be a part of but Tesla, thats why I am so excited about them.
I really cannot see how 20 years from now the BEV is not the way, will it be tesla, will it be someone else, that nobody knows. What I do know is the shackles upon big auto are enormous, and turning that around and going head to head vs a company with none of the shackles that big auto has, thats a tough thing to do at this stage of the game and thats why Tesla is causing such disruption. It just has a perfect blend of product + ceo + time in history.
Again the fact we're on page 9 is a testament to what I said on page 1, this is the most polarizing name in the market. Tons of bulls, tons of bears, an incredible story all around, definitely the most interesting thing out there as far as im concerned.
This post was edited on 4/29/17 at 2:25 pm
Posted on 4/29/17 at 2:27 pm to dabigfella
Thanks. You just explained the basis for you emotional love affair for Tesla. 
Posted on 4/29/17 at 2:37 pm to dabigfella
Very polarizing. I also think what scares me about the stock is the factor that "belief" plays into the pricing. I could miss out on gains, but I feel like once it proves itself I can still get in and keep for the long haul and come out ahead in a decade or two.
Posted on 4/29/17 at 2:45 pm to leoj
It's not belief man if this was a baseball game this would be the top of the first and the pitcher hasn't thrown a pitch yet. If you in your heart believe the bev is the future, and I've laid out my case for why I think it is, but if you think it is, nobody is even within a few years of tesla at this juncture. That's what investing is, you see risk, I see potential reward, and it's pretty easy to sit back today and see a $5m piece of land in houstons galleria area after all the development occurred. The guy who made millions was the guy who took risk and bought it before all that growth occurred.
This post was edited on 4/29/17 at 2:46 pm
Posted on 4/29/17 at 3:02 pm to LSURussian
Thanks for going through the history of oil swings, so the rest of the non musketeers don't have to.
To say oil will never go above $75 ever again is just foolish.
To say oil will never go above $75 ever again is just foolish.
Posted on 4/29/17 at 3:24 pm to TigerDeBaiter
Well have we ever had an alternative to not using oil before? Yes technically we can't all drive electric today but push come to shove, push oil to $125 again and see what happens to demand of the $35k tesla. I promise it will be something insane.
Posted on 4/29/17 at 3:51 pm to dabigfella
What is the cost to charge a Tesla?
Not just at home, but away from home.
I understand right now there are plenty of free charging points, but will that stay true? Especially when there are 40MM fully electric cars on the road.
Not just at home, but away from home.
I understand right now there are plenty of free charging points, but will that stay true? Especially when there are 40MM fully electric cars on the road.
Posted on 4/29/17 at 3:57 pm to fightin tigers
$0 tesla has Superchargers all over the place go to supercharge.info to see a map they're perfectly scattered for you to drive nationwide for free. At home it's a couple bucks but you can drive NYC to la for free. The Superchargers are typically at spots with restaurants so you plug in and go eat real quick,use the bathroom, and your car is charged. Quite the bottleneck bc after 4 hours of driving most need a quick rest. The Superchargers I'm sure will charge the other carmakers cars for free at some point.
This post was edited on 4/29/17 at 3:59 pm
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