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Started By
Message
re: Silver up 12% for the week on Black Friday
Posted on 1/15/26 at 10:30 pm to faraway
Posted on 1/15/26 at 10:30 pm to faraway
quote:
for how long? this means nothing. as long as the fed prints money, silver and gold are safe investments.
Sigh.
Silver was down 50% or so from its highs for the better part of a decade while the Fed had the fire hose on full blast.
I realize that if you bought it at the high in 2011 you’ve basically doubled your money today, but for literally 95% of that time frame spot silver traded below the CPI index.
I’m not here to rain on any parades, but just throwing silver into this “as long as the Fed prints money silver is a safe investment” is frankly crazy given historical precedence. In fact, saying something is “safe” when it fell over 75% from 2011 to the 2020 lows, and 50% from the 2011 highs over the full 10 years through 5/2021 - despite a 125% increase in M2 and a 20% increase in CPI over the same time frame - is incredibly irresponsible.
You can wax poetic about silver manipulation and any other reasons for its substantial underperformance until the last 6 months, but the fact remains it has been a terrible hedge of the Fed printing machine for the majority of the last 15 years.
2
Posted on 1/15/26 at 11:00 pm to slackster
Fair points, but current fundamentals are nothing like past run-ups. One notable example is China having massive new export controls on Ag(Started Jan 2026). In case you didn't know, they are the #1 Silver refiner in the world and the #2 producer.
Silver is one of, if not the most important element to the tech industry... And the tech industry is constantly expanding.
Silver has absolutely been manipulated in the past and maybe that suppression is finally coming home to roost.. What's good for the goose is good for the gander eh?
The amount of paper silver derivatives is almost 400 times the amount of actual available silver
Things that cannot last forever, don't.
Did you miss out on these gains baw?
Silver is one of, if not the most important element to the tech industry... And the tech industry is constantly expanding.
Silver has absolutely been manipulated in the past and maybe that suppression is finally coming home to roost.. What's good for the goose is good for the gander eh?
The amount of paper silver derivatives is almost 400 times the amount of actual available silver
Things that cannot last forever, don't.
Did you miss out on these gains baw?
Posted on 1/16/26 at 12:08 am to FAT SEXY
quote:
Fair points, but current fundamentals are nothing like past run-ups. One notable example is China having massive new export controls on Ag(Started Jan 2026). In case you didn't know, they are the #1 Silver refiner in the world and the #2 producer.
This is a much different animal than the “as long as the Fed is printing money silver is a safe investment” thesis. That’s my point. I’m not arguing against any modern fundamental reasons to own silver/precious medals. I am arguing against the precious medals as a Fed hedge thesis which is laughable historically, particularly for silver.
This post was edited on 1/16/26 at 12:09 am
Posted on 1/16/26 at 12:12 am to slackster
With the money printing I think they're referring to the eventual lag effect of it all. M2 is always growing and that money has to go somewhere.
Like water it will find the cracks
Like water it will find the cracks
Posted on 1/16/26 at 12:17 am to FAT SEXY
quote:
With the money printing I think they're referring to the eventual lag effect of it all. M2 is always growing and that money has to go somewhere. Like water it will find the cracks
For the last 15 or so years you would have been better off burying your money in the back yard than you would have been buying silver - up until about 6 months ago. That’s simply not acceptable if it’s an M2 hedge over that time frame. How long is the lag supposed to be
Again - no need to argue the fundamentals. I get it. Just don’t act like it’s the precious medals of choice for M2 hedging.
Posted on 1/16/26 at 12:35 am to slackster
quote:
For the last 15 or so years you would have been better off burying your money in the back yard than you would have been buying silver
Asinine. Regardless, you're just reaffirming the belief amongst stackers that Silver is still undervalued.
People are still busy chasing meme stocks while the long term thinkers are accumulating real wealth via tangible/usable assets.
Bookmark this for 2050: Silver will have blown past the S&P so fast it'll make your head spin.
Posted on 1/16/26 at 5:26 am to slackster
quote:Hard asset hedges are asymmetric in nature. There are long periods of nothing followed by violent repricing events. And the thinking is that those long periods of boredom get shorter and shorter the further out you go into fiat debasement.
For the last 15 or so years you would have been better off burying your money in the back yard than you would have been buying silver - up until about 6 months ago. That’s simply not acceptable if it’s an M2 hedge over that time frame.
Posted on 1/16/26 at 6:34 am to FAT SEXY
quote:
Bookmark this for 2050: Silver will have blown past the S&P so fast it'll make your head spin.
To clarify, you think silver price will 160x over the next 25 years? (Assuming S&P has 3% gains over the next 25 years)
Posted on 1/16/26 at 7:15 am to slackster
quote:
I’m not here to rain on any parades, but just throwing silver into this “as long as the Fed prints money silver is a safe investment” is frankly crazy
It’s not crazy at all when you recognize that these things - value of PM versus value of the dollar - are not linear, but are bubbles.
The real estate meltdown in September 2009 wasn’t the result of government intervention in real estate policy which began in June 2009.
People are buying silver and gold now because many recognize something they were unwilling to admit before - the R Party, which has OWNED the platform of spending cuts and reduced deficits, is now in charge of all three branches of government, and clearly doesn’t give a rats arse about taking the problem on.
If they are gonna keep printing, and increase the rate of printing and devaluing the dollar, one of the few ways to punish them for this is buying into a world currency- gold, silver.
Posted on 1/16/26 at 7:24 am to OccamsStubble
Seeing the same pattern regularly now. Premarket opens and retail just dumps. Then the structural bid comes in and brings the price back up. No idea how long that will last. Assuming it’s a massive unwind of shorts. A lot of y’all know this market much better than me though.
Posted on 1/16/26 at 10:17 am to reds on reds on reds
I'm not talking about the all time charts, though I should have been more specific.
I know your comment was tongue in cheek, but look at this 10 year chart.
If silver can do that over the past 10 years, why can't it do it again over the next 20-25?
Check out this 30 year chart
*Anyone reading this that has a portfolio with an S&P average from 1950's prices please ignore*
I know your comment was tongue in cheek, but look at this 10 year chart.
If silver can do that over the past 10 years, why can't it do it again over the next 20-25?
Check out this 30 year chart
*Anyone reading this that has a portfolio with an S&P average from 1950's prices please ignore*
This post was edited on 1/16/26 at 10:34 am
Posted on 1/16/26 at 11:41 am to slackster
quote:
All jokes aside this was my point in mid December about selling precious medals when all the grandmothers are pouring into it.
You are an insult to the Stanford icon
Posted on 1/16/26 at 12:43 pm to Pimphand
Precious metals going up is cool and all but the reason they’re going up is because the dollar is worthless
Posted on 1/16/26 at 1:27 pm to el Gaucho
quote:
Precious metals going up is cool and all but the reason they’re going up is because the dollar is worthless
1000%
The dollar became worthless in 1913 when we established the Federal Reserve which is neither Federal nor has reserves. Hope this helps PM enthusiasts read the tea leaves we are not the ponzi banker criminals.
We just want sound money. Once you have sound money there is no money for gender studies, social media influencers, paid agitators and all the other poxes on society
This post was edited on 1/16/26 at 2:08 pm
Posted on 1/16/26 at 4:38 pm to Pimphand
Posted on 1/16/26 at 4:42 pm to cadillacattack
We just barely cleared the $90 barrier for the weekly close...
But that changes the calculus as your $1.25 in 90% quarters is now $80.44/hr
But that changes the calculus as your $1.25 in 90% quarters is now $80.44/hr
Posted on 1/16/26 at 4:54 pm to cadillacattack
Now those 5 quarters at 16.31 each ( NGC coin price guide ) you would be looking at $ 81.55.
Love the ngc coin price guide. Good way to look up a particular coins melt value. It has a tab for US Silver, US Gold, World Silver, World Gold, etc.
Love the ngc coin price guide. Good way to look up a particular coins melt value. It has a tab for US Silver, US Gold, World Silver, World Gold, etc.
Posted on 1/16/26 at 4:55 pm to FAT SEXY
quote:
If silver can do that over the past 10 years, why can't it do it again over the next 20-25?
Those charts seem to show exactly why you shouldn’t expect this dance to last. It looks like silver underperformed everything else 27/30 years. It just happens when it does it erases years of antipathy.
The silver quarter meme is another one that is overplayed. Now do a chart that compares shares of US tobacco to silver or gold equivalent starting100, 50, or even thirty years ago. I’ll take the cigarette shares or almost any other dinosaur company.
This post was edited on 1/16/26 at 4:57 pm
Posted on 1/16/26 at 5:02 pm to lsuconnman
Those charts are interesting to me nonetheless. We're talking about low risk precious metals keeping pace with the broader markets, not speculative tobacco stocks.
Also, that quarter meme is dated.
Those 5 Washington Quarters have a melt of $81.55 as I type this.
You bears think this is the same song and dance as before and I believe you're mistaken
Also, that quarter meme is dated.
Those 5 Washington Quarters have a melt of $81.55 as I type this.
You bears think this is the same song and dance as before and I believe you're mistaken
This post was edited on 1/16/26 at 11:11 pm
Posted on 1/16/26 at 5:18 pm to FAT SEXY
LINK: US Mint American Silver Eagle
American Silver Eagles from the US Mint. I see pricing of $ 169 to $ 173 depending on the coin.
American Silver Eagles from the US Mint. I see pricing of $ 169 to $ 173 depending on the coin.
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