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re: Stocks...
Posted on 4/15/10 at 12:00 pm to John Merlyn
Posted on 4/15/10 at 12:00 pm to John Merlyn
I'm actually trying to lose you money Merlyn. Or am I? Should you buy JOEZ? Or am I pulling one over on you?
I am kidding, of course. At least you're a Southerner. I guess that works.
I am kidding, of course. At least you're a Southerner. I guess that works.
This post was edited on 4/15/10 at 12:01 pm
0
Posted on 4/15/10 at 12:31 pm to RedStickBR
IDK that I can provide any color on the tax stuff. If they used up their entire valuation allowance, then they've pretty much shot their load on that unless they start re-reserving. The stuff about trademarks etc would indicate to me that the 1Q book tax rate is the high-water mark on that. Having zero knowledge of taxes associated with purchasing trademarks and/or the state taxes they are subject to, I can't comment on the magnitude of the change at all, unfortunately.
The only thing I would be weary about is basing future quarters off of Q1, especially in light of your comments about how they tend to do better as the year goes on. Q1 09 was apocalyptic from a consumer standpoint, the year-over-year comps are ridiculously easy. To wit:
LINK ][LINK]
As Q2 was the beginning of the bounce back phase we've been in for the past year, I think those YoY comps will give you a clearer picture of their progress, and might be a better basis for future expectations of performance.
The only thing I would be weary about is basing future quarters off of Q1, especially in light of your comments about how they tend to do better as the year goes on. Q1 09 was apocalyptic from a consumer standpoint, the year-over-year comps are ridiculously easy. To wit:
quote:
However, the extremely strong gains are deceiving as results are being compared to very depressed levels from a year ago, when overall sales tumbled 8.4%, 11.6%, and 10.6% in January, February, and March respectively.
To put in perspective how absolutely dismal 2009 was, consider that in the previous 15+ years, from January 1993 through August 2008, there were a total of only 3 months in which YoY decreases were reported
LINK ][LINK]
As Q2 was the beginning of the bounce back phase we've been in for the past year, I think those YoY comps will give you a clearer picture of their progress, and might be a better basis for future expectations of performance.
Posted on 4/15/10 at 12:48 pm to kfizzle85
Good points on the YoY comparisons. I agree that Q2 will serve as a better comparison. If you look at the QoQ, you will see our revenues in Q1'10 (seasonally, our worst quarter) were almost as high as our revenues in Q4'09 (seasonally, our best quarter). However, our income after tax was only almost as high in Q1'10 as it was in Q1'09 (which, as you've noted, was a terrible quarter for us). But this discrepancy between revenues and income was in large part due to one-time expenses that the company has said will not be a concern going forward. If you add back in the one-time expenses of around 700k, you'll see that JOEZ' net income would have been closer to the Q2'09 results, in which earnings were .02 per share. With the growth JOEZ is seeing, I think we could see EPS of .03 per share in the second quarter of this year, but only if they can really cut back on expenses. I know as an emerging brand there's temptation to get your name stamped on every single piece of open space you can find, but hopefully JOEZ will still be able to curtail expenses and concentrate instead on slowly growing their existing stores and not trying to do too much too soon.
Posted on 4/15/10 at 2:03 pm to RedStickBR
quote:
There's quite an astute group here, and we can use that to our collective advantages.
The cool thing about this board is that there's a really diverse group that can't really be achieved on a website devoted to finance.
We have some old doods like Russian and Poodlebrain dropping mad knowledge and experience and we have the younger guys (me, you, KFizz) with our irrational exuberance keeping it fun.
Also, you have bankers (Russian), FA's (Broke), CFA's(to be) (me & KFizz), CPA's (Poodlebrain and Kfizz), Ivy leaguer's (JT), Bama fans (Merlyn), Southern Ivy leaguers (Lynx), and complete amateurs asking questions that all keep our self esteem high.
The group think is kept at a minimum on this board, and I really like that. The only exception are the modern day pariah's that come around here telling us to burn our dollars and buy gold and calling us fools for not doing so (Rivers).
Posted on 4/15/10 at 2:11 pm to TheHiddenFlask
quote:Huh?
Ivy leaguer's (JT)
Posted on 4/15/10 at 2:20 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Huh
He went to princeton, no?
Posted on 4/15/10 at 2:29 pm to TheHiddenFlask
Maybe so but I've never seen him post that. He is from New Jersey (so Princeton is a possibility), attended LSU (as I understand it) and now lives in Washington state. Has he posted on here that he went to Princeton? If not, what gave you that impression?
Posted on 4/15/10 at 2:33 pm to LSURussian
I thought I had seen that, I don't know if I thought it was him or if someone else posted it, but I am almost positive I have seen it.
Posted on 4/15/10 at 2:35 pm to TheHiddenFlask
You could be right. I've just not seen him post that.
Posted on 4/15/10 at 2:42 pm to LSURussian
I believe he went to Penn for undergrad.
Posted on 4/15/10 at 2:44 pm to kfizzle85
After some thought, I think his location may have been listed as Princeton, NJ for a while. Maybe that's where the confusion is setting in.
Posted on 4/15/10 at 2:49 pm to TheHiddenFlask
quote:I seem to recall that as well. He may have gone to Princeton. I was just wondering how I missed that tidbit of information about him.
I think his location may have been listed as Princeton, NJ
Posted on 4/15/10 at 2:50 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Maybe so but I've never seen him post that. He is from New Jersey (so Princeton is a possibility), attended LSU (as I understand it) and now lives in Washington state. Has he posted on here that he went to Princeton? If not, what gave you that impression?
LSURussian - what a shocking source of ignorance.
Posted on 4/15/10 at 2:51 pm to Tiger JJ
quote:
LSURussian - what a shocking source of ignorance.
That didn't come close to being helpful.
Posted on 4/15/10 at 2:51 pm to Tiger JJ
I'll take that to mean no, you didn't go to Princeton.
Posted on 4/15/10 at 2:52 pm to LSURussian
quote:
I'll take that to mean no, you didn't go to Princeton.
You should take it to mean that you are spouting off on shite you know jack about.
Posted on 4/15/10 at 2:53 pm to Tiger JJ
I would like to apologize for derailing and ruining an other wise great thread.
Posted on 4/15/10 at 2:56 pm to TheHiddenFlask
To further derail the thread I don't know if I'd call Rhodes a southern ivy. Don't they have an acceptance rate of over 50%?
:ducks from the coming lynx attack:
:ducks from the coming lynx attack:
Posted on 4/15/10 at 2:57 pm to TheHiddenFlask
I'm trying to bring some awesome back to this thread.
Posted on 4/15/10 at 3:00 pm to LSURussian
quote:
I seem to recall that as well. He may have gone to Princeton. I was just wondering how I missed that tidbit of information about him.
So just to be clear, you "recall" things that never happened and are now wondering how you could have "missed" information about me - implying that you are even close to correct on what you think you know. And of top of all that, you've tried to spin it into some sort of "I was right" moment.
This is quite illuminating about you overall.
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