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re: Stocks...
Posted on 4/16/10 at 2:29 pm to dutchdanish
Posted on 4/16/10 at 2:29 pm to dutchdanish
quote:I do...or I'm nuts!
You've got balls!
I agree with Warren B., the time to be greedy is when others are fearful. I also bought some GS this afternoon.
1
Posted on 4/16/10 at 2:32 pm to LSURussian
quote:
I agree with Warren B., the time to be greedy is when others are fearful. I also bought some GS this afternoon.
My buy and sell price on the stock before this were 150 and 190, respectively.
This event will probably knock my prices back 10 bucks on both sides. I will probably get sucked back in if they reach the low 140's.
Posted on 4/16/10 at 2:41 pm to TheHiddenFlask
I think when GS announces their earnings on Tuesday with a $4.25-$5/share Q1 result we will see a jump in their price.
That gives them a P/E of only around 8 at $160/share, which is where the price is as I post this.
ETA: And to put today's GS pullback in perspective, at $160, the price is where it was only 5 weeks ago.
That gives them a P/E of only around 8 at $160/share, which is where the price is as I post this.
ETA: And to put today's GS pullback in perspective, at $160, the price is where it was only 5 weeks ago.
This post was edited on 4/16/10 at 2:54 pm
Posted on 4/16/10 at 2:57 pm to LSURussian
"I've got enough money to miss some good investments, but I don't have enough money to take part in bad ones"
-Mike Kirby
-Mike Kirby
Posted on 4/16/10 at 2:59 pm to TheHiddenFlask
That's a good one! I have not heard that one before.
Posted on 4/16/10 at 3:05 pm to LSURussian
quote:
That's a good one! I have not heard that one before.
I think it was a Mike Kirby original.
He's one of my teachers. He is also a founder of stone henge capital.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 10:55 pm to TheHiddenFlask
Here are some updates on a few I'm holding for longer than I normally do:
CLRT - This biotechnology company could potentially report positive earnings for the first time in over 10 years on May 6 for the first quarter. Anyone who plays bios knows these companies often operate at a loss for a good 10-20 years before becoming profitable. Well, CLRT is now at that point and it should have enormous effects on the price per share in the next few weeks.
AXTI - Report afterhours on April 28. Consensus estimate is .035 which is laughable because the company has issued guidance of .04-.07 for the first quarter. Should be an easy beat.
LPIH - Soon to be uplisting to the AMEX. I have it valued between 6.50-7.50 based off of P/E of 10 and earnings of .65-.75 in FY'2011 which begins July 1.
CLRT - This biotechnology company could potentially report positive earnings for the first time in over 10 years on May 6 for the first quarter. Anyone who plays bios knows these companies often operate at a loss for a good 10-20 years before becoming profitable. Well, CLRT is now at that point and it should have enormous effects on the price per share in the next few weeks.
AXTI - Report afterhours on April 28. Consensus estimate is .035 which is laughable because the company has issued guidance of .04-.07 for the first quarter. Should be an easy beat.
LPIH - Soon to be uplisting to the AMEX. I have it valued between 6.50-7.50 based off of P/E of 10 and earnings of .65-.75 in FY'2011 which begins July 1.
This post was edited on 4/20/10 at 10:58 pm
Posted on 4/23/10 at 12:49 pm to RedStickBR
AXTI is really moving going into next week in which earnings will be announced and by my estimation will blow the roof off.
Posted on 4/23/10 at 1:08 pm to RedStickBR
Yeah I've had my eye on it since I saw you mention it in this thread. It's a good looking stock and seems to be building momentum...
Posted on 4/23/10 at 1:11 pm to RedStickBR
You got a price estimate?
Posted on 4/23/10 at 5:01 pm to John Merlyn
The industry average P/E is 27.9 w/ some semiconductor companies having P/Es as high as 53. We'll be conservative and use 20. The company issued guidance of .04-.07 for Q1'10, historically their slowest quarter, and attributed the positive demand environment for substrates as the reason they expect to offset normal seasonality. The current consensus estimate is .035. The company has already given us guidance higher than that figure, so it should be an easy beat. Let's be conservative again and use .04 and then let's assume they (again, being conservative IMO) earn .05 in Q2, .06 in Q3, and .07 in Q4. That's .22 for the year. Using our P/E of 20, that puts us at $4.40, an easy 33% increase from today's levels, and with conservative figures to boot. If the company can crank out .07 in earnings this quarter (remember, their slowest) and then let's just say they earn that amount in each of the three remaining quarters, that would put us at $5.60 - again using somewhat conservative estimates. Let's say our dream comes true and the company reports EPS for the year of .30 and we are awarded the industry average P/E of 27.9 - that would come out to $8.37.
As you can see, whether you value the company liberally or even with extreme conservatism, AXTI is an easy winner.
As you can see, whether you value the company liberally or even with extreme conservatism, AXTI is an easy winner.
Posted on 4/24/10 at 5:13 am to RedStickBR
I appreciate the tip on AXTI, it has worked out well so far
Posted on 4/24/10 at 6:01 am to LSU1018
I'm loving the SORL right now red stick. I sold it like a dumbass but I made pretty good money. Going to get back in and sit on it for a while. I'm also going to get in another but can't decide what one. I'm trying to pick b/c LPIH, AXTI, CLRT.
Posted on 4/24/10 at 6:08 am to wegotdatwood
Oh and CELM. I like that one too. Just wish I had about 100 grand each I coule put into them
Posted on 4/24/10 at 7:15 am to wegotdatwood
I've been following TSEM as well. How do you think that compares to AXTI?
Posted on 4/24/10 at 9:20 am to LSU1018
Sure thing LSU1018. I don't remember who it was on this board that brought it to my attention, but thanks to that person as well.
This post was edited on 4/24/10 at 9:21 am
Posted on 4/24/10 at 9:38 am to RedStickBR
Redstick if you could pick one of out SORL, CLRT, AXTI, CELM, and LPIH which would you go with?
If you could choose 2 which 2 would you pick? Thanks in advance.
If you could choose 2 which 2 would you pick? Thanks in advance.
Posted on 4/24/10 at 9:45 am to wegotdatwood
quote:
I'm loving the SORL right now red stick. I sold it like a dumbass but I made pretty good money. Going to get back in and sit on it for a while. I'm also going to get in another but can't decide what one. I'm trying to pick b/c LPIH, AXTI, CLRT.
SORL had a great day on Friday. That's the problem w/ trading these. Often, you miss the boat. If you're going to trade it ... come up with a core position in your head and hold onto that position no matter what as you've done your DD and know the companies are solid (right?). Then, establish another position in addition to that core that you trade with. Just a thought. With any of these, a buy-and-hold strategy would work though.
Here's your time frame for news w/ LPIH, AXTI, CLRT:
AXTI - Earnings Wed. 4/28 @ 3:30pm
CLRT - Earnings Thurs. 4/29 @ 4:00pm
For LPIH, we don't have a set day in stone on which they will be releasing good news. But allow me to speculate ... Remember at the last RedChip conference in New York is where they gave us their guidance for the year and also announced that they would soon be filing w/ AMEX. Well, they are set to present on Tuesday 4/27 at RedChip's Virtual Conference at 8:30am. Hopefully, we get confirmation from CFO crane that the AMEX application has been filed and is under review.
LPIH 4/27 @ 8:30am
AXTI 4/28 @ 3:30pm
CLRT 4/29 @ 4:00pm
Remember, these earnings plays are tricky. AXTI, for example, has run the past 2 days going into earnings. I expect earnings to be nothing short of stellar. However, there's always the risk of earnings being sold off, even if they're great. I personally don't think that will be the case as I expect the earnings to beat enough that any reasonable person concludes they should hold onto their shares, but there is that possibility, as there always is. Nothing is certain, all you can do is use the information before you to make an educated prediction, and he who has the most information is usually right. CLRT, we've been told, WILL be profitable in Q2'10. That does not mean they won't be profitable in Q1'10, which they report 4/29. Q2 is a definite. Q1 is a maybe. But I think that maybe tilts a little bit closer towards likely than it does not likely. Additionally, they were initially supposed to report on May. A company is never in a rush to report bad news. The fact that they've pushed their self-imposed earnings date up by a week tells me that they might just be itching to tell us some good news.
This post was edited on 4/24/10 at 10:11 am
Posted on 4/24/10 at 10:09 am to wegotdatwood
quote:
Redstick if you could pick one of out SORL, CLRT, AXTI, CELM, and LPIH which would you go with?
If you could choose 2 which 2 would you pick? Thanks in advance.
CELM - I've had it on my watch list. Obviously a monster. Really don't know enough about the company to give an informed opinion.
SORL - The thing that you need to understand about SORL is that I am playing this stock as if I'm playing the Chinese economy as a whole. The automobile industry is one of the fastest, if not THE fastest, growing Chinese industries, so I'm parking some money in this one and will ride it until either the Chinese economic boom has had its time or the company's fundamentals give cause to sell.
As you know, I like CLRT, LPIH, and AXTI. CLRT and AXTI definitely both have exciting catalysts next week. LPIH could also have some big news, but it's speculative at this point. Since I know AXTI better than I know CLRT, I'd say AXTI>CLRT>LPIH, or at least for next week. But these questions are really tough to answer and I don't like giving anyone hard buy recommendations. I've provided some information that I think is relevant. You decide.
Posted on 4/24/10 at 10:46 am to RedStickBR
I'm in the process of moving money to an etrade account. I've been going through my local bank and I'm tired of how much it costs to trade. That may take a few days. Do you think those companies will still be good buys after this week or do you expect people to sell off after a fast increase? Basically, you think I still have time to get in at a good price if I wait 3 or 4 days to get my money moved?
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