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Started By
Message
re: What Is There To Be Bullish About?
Posted on 8/22/22 at 4:32 am to Upperdecker
Posted on 8/22/22 at 4:32 am to Upperdecker
quote:
Market going back down this week. Check out the pattern.
Hello downside my old friend
1
Posted on 8/22/22 at 9:21 am to Upperdecker
And down we go!
Posted on 8/22/22 at 9:27 am to GREENHEAD22
Shocker the up move was probably all dealer positioning related and we reverse after OPEX 
Posted on 8/22/22 at 6:16 pm to Bard
I agree 100%!
The whole real estate marked residential, and commercial are screwed for next several years. I know several people on the commercial side got laid off recently.
By the time the FED finishes raising rates we will have Jimmy Carter era (14%-20%) 30 year mortgage rates if not higher! These slapd@#k's running our country appear to be only working to increasing inflation! I bet 95% of all Federal elected officials could not pass a simple economics, or finance test!
Hope I am wrong, but sure looks like we will experience a Great Depression.
The whole real estate marked residential, and commercial are screwed for next several years. I know several people on the commercial side got laid off recently.
By the time the FED finishes raising rates we will have Jimmy Carter era (14%-20%) 30 year mortgage rates if not higher! These slapd@#k's running our country appear to be only working to increasing inflation! I bet 95% of all Federal elected officials could not pass a simple economics, or finance test!
Hope I am wrong, but sure looks like we will experience a Great Depression.
Posted on 8/22/22 at 7:04 pm to GREENHEAD22
quote:
And down we go!
Much more pain coming....
Posted on 8/22/22 at 8:32 pm to Thomas98
quote:
By the time the FED finishes raising rates we will have Jimmy Carter era (14%-20%) 30 year mortgage rates if not higher!
It's not going to get that bad. We're likely to see interest rates get to 7%-8% but any higher than that and I think the Fed starts cutting rates again.
The thing is, this has needed to happen for years. With so much nearly-free liquidity, the market has gotten fat, lazy and addicted. This has gone on for so long that we long ago passed the point where addressing it was going to be relatively painless.
Posted on 8/22/22 at 8:38 pm to Bard
Really couldn’t have said it better myself. I just worry the fed caves as soon as the market throws a little bit worse fit… knowing they have the risk of something breaking. Hopefully the breaking part doesn’t have to happen.
Posted on 8/23/22 at 5:23 am to SalE
quote:
I just have a feeling that the condtions are ripe for a Black Swan event..
So going with that hypothesis, what does an investor do to hedge/ prepare, especially with a sub 10yr horizon?
Posted on 8/23/22 at 6:12 am to UpstairsComputer
quote:
Really couldn’t have said it better myself. I just worry the fed caves as soon as the market throws a little bit worse fit… knowing they have the risk of something breaking. Hopefully the breaking part doesn’t have to happen.
When Covid started, I was on the sidelines waiting to enter when shite was hitting the fan. Then the fed comes in and prints every dollar they can to prop up the market.
You're 100% right. Even though we are ready for another huge drop, the fed will do whatever they want including propping up the market.
Posted on 8/23/22 at 6:38 am to I Love Bama
Yep, don’t underestimate the Fed here, they can stop QT and start QE again easily and prop us up
Posted on 8/23/22 at 7:05 am to I Love Bama
Not a thing but you must remember the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent
Posted on 8/23/22 at 7:11 am to DTRooster
Yup. Which is why I have not been shorting. Just moved to all cash (except my Bitcoin).
Looking for sub 15k Bitcoin and a 25% or more drop in the S&P 500.
If those don't happen, I'll miss the run up and look for the next opportunity for passive yield.
Looking for sub 15k Bitcoin and a 25% or more drop in the S&P 500.
If those don't happen, I'll miss the run up and look for the next opportunity for passive yield.
This post was edited on 8/23/22 at 7:12 am
Posted on 8/23/22 at 7:16 am to DTRooster
Think Sept will bring us back to the lows of June but from there with elections coming up later in the year dont see markets hitting new lows. If Fed cant get inflation under control and prices continue to increase on everything then Consumer spending will come to a stand still probably by end of year. Only so much the Avg consumer can endure.
Posted on 8/23/22 at 7:19 am to FLObserver
quote:
If Fed cant get inflation under control and prices continue to increase on everything then Consumer spending will come to a stand still probably by end of year. Only so much the Avg consumer can endure.
And really, absolute best case scenario for inflation is probably 5%. I don't see any path to getting back to sub 3%
Posted on 8/23/22 at 7:26 am to I Love Bama
quote:
And really, absolute best case scenario for inflation is probably 5%. I don't see any path to getting back to sub 3%
Dont think sub 3% is healthy to be honest. Think keeping rate at around 4% would be best case if and when we get back to a good place. This would also give the fed flexability for future downturns. Fed should have been raising rates to higher level the last few years anyway.
Posted on 8/23/22 at 7:29 am to Bard
quote:
We're likely to see interest rates get to 7%-8% but any higher than that and I think the Fed starts cutting rates again.
We’re not likely to see this at all.
Posted on 8/23/22 at 7:46 am to FLObserver
quote:
Dont think sub 3% is healthy to be honest.
All inflation is theft. Period. But I don't want to derail the macro conversations in this thread.
WTF Happened In 1971
Posted on 8/23/22 at 8:23 am to Upperdecker
quote:
Yep, don’t underestimate the Fed here, they can stop QT and start QE again easily and prop us up
This. This right here is the answer to this whole thread.
Posted on 8/23/22 at 10:21 am to Bard
quote:
It's not going to get that bad. We're likely to see interest rates get to 7%-8% but any higher than that and I think the Fed starts cutting rates again.
How many companies can roll their debt and stay cashflow positive at those rates on falling earnings and inventory write-downs?
Posted on 8/23/22 at 10:25 am to I Love Bama
quote:
You're 100% right. Even though we are ready for another huge drop, the fed will do whatever they want including propping up the market.
I don't think that happens this time, at least not as drastically nor as soon.
They understand their Easing policy was the primary thing leading to our monetary inflation and that it's a far less palatable option than a recession, thus they've set a rate goal of 3%-4% by the end of the year. That's not going to change as long as inflation remains high because the other option (more Easing) means bringing back inflation increases (risking a Depression, the longer it goes on).
They've attempted to ease us into it with understating language (inflation being "transitory" is the most glaring example to me) in order to not shock the market. Funny enough, it looks to have worked to some extent.
Pay no attention to the inflation drivers behind the curtain!
The thing is, they're still doing it.
Soft landing but no Recession because there's a path to avoid it.
The key word she used is "slowdown". Almost like it's going to be... "transitory".
The problem the market is facing is that consumers don't give a rancid shite what rose-colored terms the Fed is trying to paint the economy with when food prices are increasing by double-digit percentages and their paychecks are falling further and further behind. When we discuss how the "market has built this into stock value", I disagree. The market is sucking up just enough of the Fed's Hopium to keep buying, but there's not enough of that hallucinogenic to mask when profits start taking a hard hit.
All this is to say that through the end of the year we're going to see some tough economic times and the Fed is going to be fairly powerless to do anything about it, and if they do it will be very small. Why? Because despite their upbeat rhetoric they know their choices are literally between dropping rates again and risking a possible (I would even say "likely") Depression or raising them and hoping to get out of this with just Stagflation.
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