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Posted on 11/11/09 at 3:45 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
i think the point is, its irrelevant if u can get to the ball but cant make the play. Whether you make an error, eat the ball, the runner being safe, etc...
I agree. What matters is making outs. What do you think Range Factor is? It's a player's total number of defensive outs per 9 innings. This stat you are railing against MEASURES THIS VERY THING. Range Factor tells you how many outs a guy makes. No more, no less.
Posted on 11/11/09 at 3:48 pm to Baloo
BALOOM!!!!!!!
Posted on 11/11/09 at 3:54 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
seriously, did u need some stat to tell u Franklin Gutierrez can flat out go get the ball in the OF??? Or did you base that off watching him play?
Yes, I did. I saw him make some incredible plays, but was he doing that over the course of 162 games? How would I know?
There's lots of players who make outstanding plays, but on the whole are not good defensively at all.
You're simplifying your argument to the point that you won't allow anyone to refute it. Falling back on a 'trained baseball eye' means nothing. You're guessing if he can actually tell the difference in range. He can probably see the difference in the low and high ends of the spectrum but it's not possible in the middle (where most everyone lies).
Posted on 11/11/09 at 3:54 pm to Baloo
quote:
You're the one who made a silly, unsubstantiated claim (Jeter's positioning makes up for his lack of range
Actually that was HOF SS Cal Ripken, not me.
I tend to agree that he positions himself well, but i never said it made him the best defensive SS in the game.
quote:
Has it occurred to you Jeter doesn't make many errors because A) he doesn't get to many balls and B) a generous local scorer?
yet he is still getting putouts near the top of the league???
quote:
You want to use putouts? Fine. Let's use putouts. Jeter ranks 5th only if you don't count Betantcourt's full season total. Jeter's actually a whopping SIXTH in putouts. He's also THIRD in total innings, which may have something to do with it. Only 8 shortstops played 1000 innings, so by arguing that Jeter finished 6th in a counting stat among 8 viable contenders is, well, NOT GOOD. It means he is BELOW AVERAGE.
wait, what happened to the "total chances" argument?
shouldn't the guys with 100+ more chances have way more putouts than Derek Jeter??
what gives?
now im not a math major, but Andrus, for example, has 135 more total chances than Jeter, but only 55 more putouts? Sure, there are some variables u need to factor in, but those ratios dont really bode well for Andrus.
same can be said for a few of the other guys.
And Alexi Ramirez was one i forgot, another guy with 20 errors.
so back to the GG talk, which one of these guys with 20+ errors are u wanting to give the Gold Glove over Jeter?
not that they don't have range, or make spectacular plays, because most of them do for the most part. But would u really award the GG to someone with that many errors?
quote:
And at the end of the day, if a fielder fails to make an out, does it make one lick of difference if its because he booted the ball or because he simply couldn't get there? A runner on is a runner on. a baserunner doesn't count any more or less if he reaches by error.
no, it doesn't, and thats my whole point. Wouldnt that be considered a "chance"??? I dont know, im not up to date with breakdown of that stat.
and do u think Miguel Tejada, Edgar Renteria, Cristian Guzman, and Orlando Cabrera are top notch defensive SS?
This post was edited on 11/11/09 at 3:56 pm
Posted on 11/11/09 at 4:02 pm to LfcSU3520
quote:
I saw him make some incredible plays, but was he doing that over the course of 162 games? How would I know?
speaking in terms of someone watching a player over more than a 3 game series.
ie an advanced scout, ie huge baseball fan, etc.
quote:
You're simplifying your argument to the point that you won't allow anyone to refute it.
well depends what u are talking about, u switched pages from picking a GG SS to these stats becoming more apparent in the game.
am i simplifying it when it comes down to people using these stats to break down players??? specifically defensive stats?
yea, i am maybe, because I dont think judging how well someone plays defensively is that complex.
so call it what you will.
Im not sure Jon Daniels and some of his scouts are sweating over what players have the best range factor when factoring who they are going to sign in FA.
for 1, scouts are too cocky and headstrong, and for 2, they are going to trust their eyes. Just the way i see it.
quote:
Falling back on a 'trained baseball eye' means nothing. You're guessing if he can actually tell the difference in range. He can probably see the difference in the low and high ends of the spectrum but it's not possible in the middle (where most everyone lies).
agree to disagree.
if most everyone lies in the middle, and so close together, it really doesn't matter one way or the other. No reason to quantify something like that unless u are debating at the baseball nerd convention
This post was edited on 11/11/09 at 4:04 pm
Posted on 11/11/09 at 4:09 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
Im not sure Jon Daniels and some of his scouts are sweating over what players have the best range factor when factoring who they are going to sign in FA.
at certain positions I guarantee it comes into play. Picking a RF? Probably not. But a CF or SS? You better believe it does.
The difference in picking FA is that there isn't a huge crop to choose from at any one time. So he doesn't get to pick between 30 SS. Just a few, and usually there are clear cut picks.
WHere it shows up, is making trades and evaluating minor league talent.
quote:
if most everyone lies in the middle, and so close together, it really doesn't matter one way or the other. No reason to quantify something like that unless u are debating at the baseball nerd convention
or when you're spending nearly a hundred million dollars less than other teams and have to fight for any extra thing you can get.
Posted on 11/11/09 at 4:16 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
Actually that was HOF SS Cal Ripken, not me.
Appeal to authority is a logical fallacy.
quote:
I tend to agree that he positions himself well, but i never said it made him the best defensive SS in the game.
You said his positioning compensates for his lack of range. I looked at how many balls he actually got to and showed that claim to be wrong.
quote:
yet he is still getting putouts near the top of the league???
No, he isn't. He's 6th out of 8 qualifiers (and 6 out 14 still isn't top of the league, its middle of the pack). Arguing Jeter is a great defender because 6 teams fail to field a regular shortstop is an indefenisble claim.
quote:
wait, what happened to the "total chances" argument?
I was refuting a different one of your fallacies. You said Jeter's positioning made up for his range. So I looked at his total chances to see how many balls he got to. I never once said having a high number of chances makes you a good shortstop. I said that have a high number of chances would demonstrate getting to a lot of balls.
You wanted to use putouts as the great stat of defensive worth, so I indulged you. You moved the goalposts, and then blamed me for following along. If you didn't want to talk about putouts, don't bring them up.
quote:
shouldn't the guys with 100+ more chances have way more putouts than Derek Jeter??
what gives?
Chances are errors + putouts + assists. Subtract errors from chances and you have how many outs a guy made. This isn't rocket science. These stats have only existed for 125 years.
Oh, and every player who has more total chances than Jeter has more putouts except Bartlett.
quote:
now im not a math major, but Andrus, for example, has 135 more total chances than Jeter, but only 55 more putouts? Sure, there are some variables u need to factor in, but those ratios dont really bode well for Andrus.
They are called assists. Once again: CHANCES = PO + A + E. You're trying to turn Jeter's lack of assists into a defensive virtue? You realize an assist is when a guy gets a ball and throws him out? Which is good. Andrus, for example, had 55 more putouts and 67 more assists. That's 122 outs. ONE HUNDRED AND TWENTY-TWO. In 22 less innings, but let's forget about that and call it even. That's still almost an extra out a game.
Let's say this again: ANDRUS IS WORTH NEARLY ONE MORE OUT PER GAME THAN JETER. That's a lot. We are not dealing with fancy metrics here.
quote:
not that they don't have range, or make spectacular plays, because most of them do for the most part. But would u really award the GG to someone with that many errors?
If they were worth 122 more outs, in a second. What's more important? 14 errors or 122 outs?
quote:
no, it doesn't, and thats my whole point. Wouldnt that be considered a "chance"??? I dont know, im not up to date with breakdown of that stat.
So you railed against a stat, which has actually existed for nearly 125 years, without having an idea what it was? How do you think they calculate fielding percentage? You divide outs by chances.
quote:
and do u think Miguel Tejada, Edgar Renteria, Cristian Guzman, and Orlando Cabrera are top notch defensive SS?
Not particularly, though Tejada had a suprisingly good year in the field.
Posted on 11/11/09 at 4:19 pm to Baloo
BALOOM
Posted on 11/11/09 at 4:21 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
Im not sure Jon Daniels and some of his scouts are sweating over what players have the best range factor when factoring who they are going to sign in FA.
Which is why the A's and the Red Sox have classified their defensive metrics as proprietary trade secrets and will not release them to the public. Because they are worthless.
They probably don't care that much about Range Factor because it's a fairly primitive stat. It's just an ERA for outs. (It's (outs/innings)*9). They probably value their own internal proprietary metrics more. But even at the basic level, they care about outs. That's all range factor is: outs. What else matters in defense?
Posted on 11/11/09 at 4:36 pm to Baloo
quote:
Appeal to authority is a logical fallacy.
says the Bill James disciple
quote:
No, he isn't. He's 6th out of 8 qualifiers (and 6 out 14 still isn't top of the league, its middle of the pack). Arguing Jeter is a great defender because 6 teams fail to field a regular shortstop is an indefenisble claim.
talk about running with what i said...sheesh
i said he was 6th in put outs, and of the 5 guys ahead of them, 4 of them have more than 20 errors, Aybar being the only one that didnt. And I couldnt justify giving the SS GG to anyone with over 20 errors, regardless of how many balls they get too.
quote:
You wanted to use putouts as the great stat of defensive worth, so I indulged you. You moved the goalposts, and then blamed me for following along. If you didn't want to talk about putouts, don't bring them up.
naw, i actually just wrote putouts instead of assists, its been a long day and i was trying to multitask.
.
quote:
If they were worth 122 more outs, in a second. What's more important? 14 errors or 122 outs?
Andrus had 22 errors, if that is who u are referring
too
.
quote:
Not particularly, though Tejada had a suprisingly good year in the field.
based on sabermetrics, right...all of a sudden his range came back and he became a capable fielder.
All 3 of these guys rank in the top of these statistics, which is why i cant take them seriously.
within the last few years, all had trouble finding a job because they couldnt play the field.
Posted on 11/11/09 at 4:40 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
And I couldnt justify giving the SS GG to anyone with over 20 errors, regardless of how many balls they get too.
good point. I should look up how many DPs Pujols grounded into this year. If it's arbitrarily too high, he's not getting my MVP consideration
Posted on 11/11/09 at 4:42 pm to Baloo
quote:
Which is why the A's and the Red Sox have classified their defensive metrics as proprietary trade secrets and will not release them to the public. Because they are worthless.
sure, if thats what you think.
2 teams out of 30? Billy Beane still hasnt won a world series using his sabermetric methods and cheap spending.
and BOS payroll generally ranks in the top 5 in the league.
on another note, they also have 2 of the best scouting departments in the MLB. Whose to say what criteria they use? You can't reinvent baseball...
they may use it as a reference point, but its far from the end all reasoning on drafting/trading/signing a free agent.
oh, and the A's made the 7th most errors in the MLB last year.
Posted on 11/11/09 at 4:43 pm to LfcSU3520
quote:
good point. I should look up how many DPs Pujols grounded into this year. If it's arbitrarily too high, he's not getting my MVP consideration
thats a horrible comparison
if there was an award for players grounding into the least double plays, you wouldnt give it to Pujols, now would you?
This post was edited on 11/11/09 at 4:50 pm
Posted on 11/11/09 at 4:48 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
thats a horrible comparison
no it's not. DPs are the second least valuable thing you can do for your team (outside of a triple play).
So if he's done that a lot, despite the fact he's head and shoulders above everyone else at everything else it becomes an apt comparison to what you were talking about.
Andrus is head and shoulders above the rest. Because he had more errors you have to figure out if what he did on the whole offsets that in relation to his competition. Baloo did that btw.
quote:
if there was an award for players grounding into the least double plays, you wouldnt give it to Pujols, now would you?
GG is not an award for the players with the least amount of errors.
This post was edited on 11/11/09 at 4:52 pm
Posted on 11/11/09 at 4:51 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
2 teams out of 30? Billy Beane still hasnt won a world series using his sabermetric methods and cheap spending.
He did however revolutionize the game and the way it's thought of. Especially in terms of the way front offices work. The fact he doesn't have the same budget speaks to how important his work was.
His teams were phenomenal working on a MUCH smaller budget than most everyone else.
Boston has taken a lot of these theories and plugged them into a much larger budget. Result? World Series and playoff appearances almost every year. It's not hard to figure out.
Posted on 11/11/09 at 4:52 pm to LfcSU3520
quote:
GG is not an award for the players with the least amount of errors.
never said it was, but...
only 3 SS have won a GG in the AL the last 35 years with more than 20 errors in a season
one was Omar Vizquel during a string where he won 9 straight, and another was Robin Yount when he also happened to be the MVP that year
quote:
Andrus is head and shoulders above the rest
wow, dont know what to say if thats what yall really believe.
head and shoulders, huh???
comparing his dominance to pujols is just crazy
Posted on 11/11/09 at 4:54 pm to Lester Earl
well you're such an avid baseball watcher that surely you had to have noticed it right?
I mean player after player from team after team raved to us about him all year long.
I mean player after player from team after team raved to us about him all year long.
Posted on 11/11/09 at 4:56 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
says the Bill James disciple
ad hoiminem. We can keep counting the fallacies. Nowhere have I stated, "Bill James says this, so therefore this is right". In fact, until now, there was no refeerence of Bill James. I happen to like the idea of "prove it to me" so I like Bill James but he's actually not much of a math guy and just a great writer. The math geeks are guys like Tango Tiger and Voros McCracken, who should probably work on the space program or something.
quote:
talk about running with what i said...sheesh
i said he was 6th in put outs, and of the 5 guys ahead of them, 4 of them have more than 20 errors, Aybar being the only one that didnt. And I couldnt justify giving the SS GG to anyone with over 20 errors, regardless of how many balls they get too.
So, you're argument is that 14 errors is more importnat than 122 outs? If you were running a club, you would give up a shortstop who made 122 more outs to get 14 less errros? Really?
quote:
naw, i actually just wrote putouts instead of assists, its been a long day and i was trying to multitask.
Which ignores the point. Chances are not some obscure stat. They are putouts + errors + assists. To argue that a defender doesn't look good because he has so many more chances but only X many more putouts ignores that he probably has a lot more assists. Andrus crushes Jeter in both putouts and assists. 122 outs.
quote:
Andrus had 22 errors, if that is who u are referring too
22 errors - 8 errors = 14. Jeter had 14 less errors while making 122 less outs. Hence the 122 outs being more valuable than 14 errors.
quote:
based on sabermetrics, right...all of a sudden his range came back and he became a capable fielder.
Based on WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED. Stats are merely a record of what happened. Tejada got to a lot of balls this year. This is not an evaluation, it is a simple fact. You might not like it, but sabermetrics orthodoxy probably would say Tejada can't improve like he did. Then again, Tejada's numbers aren't out of his career line. He has a career Range of 4.62 and he posted a 4.51 this year. Last year, he was awful, so this is a bit of a bounce back before his slide into irrelevance.
As for Renteria, his numbers are awful. So I'm not sure what your point was there. Guzman has a decent Range, but he didn't play a whole lot of innings, so sample size problems abound. So I wouldn't really rate him either. and Cabrera's numbers are also pretty bad. So this statement:
quote:
All 3 of these guys rank in the top of these statistics, which is why i cant take them seriously.
... is false. They don't rank highly. Only Tejada ranked well, but his numbers aren't great. Renteria's are spectacularly awful. He has a range of 3.86. You have to be trying to be THAT bad.
Posted on 11/11/09 at 5:02 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
2 teams out of 30? Billy Beane still hasnt won a world series using his sabermetric methods and cheap spending.
and BOS payroll generally ranks in the top 5 in the league.
Non sequitor. I'm hoping we can hit every logical fallacy by the end of this.
First, the reason I mentioned those two specifically is that I know for a fact they have proprietary metrics. There is no telling if other teams do as well. My point is that teams certainly value statistical analysis of defense. Every team has at least one sabermetrician on their payroll at this point.
The Red Sox, particuarly, value advanaced metrics, and just because they have a high payroll, it doesn't invalidate that they look at these metrics in their evaluation of how to spend their money. In fact, payroll size has nothing to do with evaluation tools.
You are now reduced to simply making stuff up. Any evidence I present is automatically discredited on the grounds that all stats are bad, yet you cling to errors which, ironically, is a stat.
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