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Message
re: Bama -1.5 vs Michigan
Posted on 1/1/24 at 12:10 am to hg
Posted on 1/1/24 at 12:10 am to hg
quote:
Bama is gonna knock Michigans dicks in the dirt
Media propaganda and bias have over-inflated the Conference this year...I mean Tennessee would never drop in the Committee Poll after their first big drop..they just sat at 17... Loss after loss.
People just love assuming... And living in the past.
And giving free passes...for TV. Sure, could Bama easily win this charade, sure..but should they even deserve to be here? No. Hell any team in the past could've won MNCs over and over if you gave them mulligans, FSU in the 90s, USC in the 2000s...dominated their bowls.
This isn't what was intended.
This post was edited on 1/1/24 at 12:13 am
0
Posted on 1/1/24 at 12:13 am to ReauxlTide222
Michigan basically beat Ohio State by picking on the LBs with their TEs. And with field possession. Their running game isn’t good.
Ohio State’s special teams had a disaster class. The punter averaged 36 yards for fricks sake.
If Milroe takes care of the ball, Alabama will win. That McCord 1st quarter INT had Ohio State playing from behind all game.
But Alabama isn’t going to straight up dominate Michigan’s offense like the bland Big Ten offense vs SEC defense narrative likes to think.
Ohio State’s special teams had a disaster class. The punter averaged 36 yards for fricks sake.
If Milroe takes care of the ball, Alabama will win. That McCord 1st quarter INT had Ohio State playing from behind all game.
But Alabama isn’t going to straight up dominate Michigan’s offense like the bland Big Ten offense vs SEC defense narrative likes to think.
Posted on 1/1/24 at 12:56 am to drunkensailor89
Remember, Michigan only beat Ohio State by 6. The same Ohio State team that only scored 3 points vs Missouri!
This post was edited on 1/1/24 at 12:58 am
Posted on 1/1/24 at 1:20 am to Muahahaha
quote:
Michigan only beat Ohio State by 6. The same Ohio State team
Posted on 1/1/24 at 4:58 am to KillerNut9
Bowl analysis is apparently a fraud....so we don't know what to expect and betting has now become impossible with opt-outs.
Even that Michigan player admitted he watched the game..."that was not the Ohio State team we played. "
Even that Michigan player admitted he watched the game..."that was not the Ohio State team we played. "
Posted on 1/1/24 at 5:42 am to drunkensailor89
I expect to see Bama pull away and win, something like 44 - 30. Historically these semi-final games are not close.
Posted on 1/1/24 at 7:27 am to drunkensailor89
Harbaugh sounds like he has one foot out of the door already.
Posted on 1/1/24 at 7:28 am to LSU 2024
This is stupid logic.
Posted on 1/1/24 at 7:32 am to ReauxlTide222
That is well-stated. I think Michigan's defense can keep it close. But, Michigan just doesn't seem to have any explosive plays in the arsenal on offense. The wild card would be if they can get Donovan Edwards going. But, the bottom line is it feels like a 24-17 Bama win to me.
This post was edited on 1/1/24 at 7:32 am
Posted on 1/1/24 at 7:34 am to Bunk Moreland
quote:
The wild card would be if they can get Donovan Edwards going.
DE is very talented but he hasn't clicked as much this year compared to last season. Not sure if defenses have better planning when he's in the game.
Bama 27-17. Close defensive stuff early but Milroe balls out in 2H.
Posted on 1/1/24 at 7:39 am to drunkensailor89
First of all get the line right you dipfrick then bet your 10 dollar allowance. Or just change the line 3 to 3 1/2 points like you did here and win 22 dollars should gumps prevail.
Posted on 1/1/24 at 7:44 am to drunkensailor89
Texas is the sure beat. Washington nearly lost to some bad teams. Plus, they are Washington.
Posted on 1/1/24 at 7:57 am to SpartyGator
quote:
DE is very talented but he hasn't clicked as much this year compared to last season. Not sure if defenses have better planning when he's in the game.
Michigan is just very predictable on offense. I think he's been banged up too.
Michigan's defense gives them a fighting chance, but that passing game has regressed badly, and it was never great to begin with. Bama's DBs will be left on an island so they'll be able to stack the box. I honestly don't know how Michigan will score enough to keep it close.
Posted on 1/1/24 at 9:15 am to drunkensailor89
Joe Shmoes, including me, really like Bama.
Vegas likes Michigan.
When this dynamic happens, Vegas is usually right.
Vegas likes Michigan.
When this dynamic happens, Vegas is usually right.
Posted on 1/1/24 at 9:19 am to drunkensailor89
Whoever loses this game, I plan to revel in their tears.
Posted on 1/1/24 at 9:24 am to Jon Ham
Vegas and "sharps" are looking for line value via analytics. Analytics absolutely LOVE the B10 this year for some reason. Hell, ESPN FPI has Michigan, OSU, and Penn St as 1-3 going into bowl season.
It's possible that all of the computers have just been incredibly off on the B10 as a whole, or it's possible the public is about to take a beating. We'll find out in a few hours.
It's possible that all of the computers have just been incredibly off on the B10 as a whole, or it's possible the public is about to take a beating. We'll find out in a few hours.
Posted on 1/1/24 at 9:30 am to drunkensailor89
Didn’t try to overthink it and took Bama spread and ml. Michigan wants to run the ball and I don’t see that happening against Bama. It’s not a Big 10 game no offense Big 10 homies.
Posted on 1/1/24 at 9:32 am to DownSouthCrawfish
The mgoblog guy is really clinging to the nerd numbers. We shall see.
LINK
quote:
This has to be the largest gap between the Vegas line and the SP+ line I have entered into the above table since I started putting both in the game column. These days it is rare to have a gap of more than a couple points. More than a touchdown is unheard of without a plague of locusts hitting one team.
What's the deal? Well, Alabama beat Georgia. The end. That win has turned the Crimson Tide from a talented but wobbly team into a juggernaut in the eyes of the public, which has bet massively on Alabama. The books have barely moved the line; it opened at Michigan –2.5. They're taking a position on Michigan.
And, you know, it's not too hard to see why. The week before Bama won the SEC championship game they required one of the all-time escapes, converting a fourth and 31 to beat a bad Auburn team. In addition to their season-opening loss to Texas and the Auburn escape, Bama also put up one-score wins over bad Texas A&M and Arkansas teams. They're 7th in SP+. Michigan is first by some distance.
Let's act like it.
LINK
This post was edited on 1/1/24 at 9:36 am
Posted on 1/1/24 at 9:35 am to Bunk Moreland
Again, analytics are heavily in favor of the B10 this year for whatever reason. I trust my eyeballs. Bama could very well lose, but some computers have us losing by nearly double digits and I just don't see it.
I'd be curious to see what his model showed for Penn St/OM as well. That line was an easy one.
I'd be curious to see what his model showed for Penn St/OM as well. That line was an easy one.
This post was edited on 1/1/24 at 9:42 am
Posted on 1/1/24 at 10:13 am to bamabenny
Line has kicked up to 2.5 at Fanduel, MGM, and ESPNBet. 
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