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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 12/10/11 at 2:16 am to TigerTatorTots
some notes i just made on Navy game in the morning
my play:
Under 57
rivarly game and with be hard hitting tough never give up attitude in the trenches
just watched a few series of both teams:
Navy puts a man in motion then stops and looks to the sidelines to see how D reacted and changes play, runs about 30-35 seconds in between plays. Army seemed to do somewhat the same thing but kinda had alittle more pep in their step.
another thing is that they will mostly be running up the middle or cutting in up almost all game which means OB wont really be a factor and the clock should be constantly running here! as long as not to many huge plays quick scores the under looks great
Another thing that i like is that the D sees pretty much each others offense in practice ever day so you would assume that they would be betting against the option opposed to spreads and shite.
i could see this game staying in the low 20's and will most likely get on the under when my bookie wakes up in the morning!
my play:
Under 57
rivarly game and with be hard hitting tough never give up attitude in the trenches
just watched a few series of both teams:
Navy puts a man in motion then stops and looks to the sidelines to see how D reacted and changes play, runs about 30-35 seconds in between plays. Army seemed to do somewhat the same thing but kinda had alittle more pep in their step.
another thing is that they will mostly be running up the middle or cutting in up almost all game which means OB wont really be a factor and the clock should be constantly running here! as long as not to many huge plays quick scores the under looks great
Another thing that i like is that the D sees pretty much each others offense in practice ever day so you would assume that they would be betting against the option opposed to spreads and shite.
i could see this game staying in the low 20's and will most likely get on the under when my bookie wakes up in the morning!
Posted on 12/10/11 at 3:45 am to wish i was tebow
I'm on the under as well. The last time these two teams went over a total of 57 was back in 2005. I know so_money is on the under as well, and he is on like on an 8 game win streak. This seems like a solid play.
Posted on 12/10/11 at 7:32 am to wish i was tebow
I like your reasoning, I'm blindly tailing you on this one
Posted on 12/10/11 at 7:50 am to TigerTatorTots
FWIW - @so_money_sports posted U57.5 so the under is definitely the bet.
Posted on 12/10/11 at 9:36 am to ChemE in the OP
I jumped on it when it hit 58, #1 and 4 rushing offenses in this big of a game is always a good play on the under
Posted on 12/10/11 at 4:55 pm to wish i was tebow
quote:
some notes i just made on Navy game in the morning
my play:
Under 57
Keep grinding the clock!Posted on 12/10/11 at 5:06 pm to TigerTatorTots
CASH!!!!!!!!1
Posted on 12/10/11 at 5:08 pm to TigerTatorTots
I MISSED IT
Posted on 12/10/11 at 5:09 pm to TigerTatorTots
And thats the under!!!!!
Great start!!!!
Great start!!!!
Posted on 12/10/11 at 5:10 pm to wish i was tebow
quote:Come over brah
wish i was tebow
Posted on 12/10/11 at 5:11 pm to wish i was tebow
You guys posting your final analysis tonight? I'll try to weigh in later (midnight or so)
Posted on 12/10/11 at 5:23 pm to okietiger
quote:We will be putting it together tonight, I may post a google doc or just copy/paste all the information tomorrow
You guys posting your final analysis tonight? I'll try to weigh in later (midnight or so)
Posted on 12/10/11 at 5:30 pm to okietiger
It will be done by no later than 2 tomorrow but I'll probably post tonight
Posted on 12/10/11 at 9:48 pm to wish i was tebow
I will be doing more statistical analysis as games get closer. Here are my leans after looking at things on the surface.
PART 1
PART 1
quote:
Temple vs Wyoming - New Mexico Bowl - University Stadium - Albuquerque, NM - ESPN
Sat 12/17 201 Temple -7 -265 o48 -110
2:00PM 202 Wyoming +7 +225 u48 -110
NO PLAY
Utah State vs Ohio - Idaho Potato Bowl - Bronco Stadium - Boise, ID - ESPN
Sat 12/17 203 Utah State -2½ -145 o57½ -110
5:30PM 204 Ohio + 2½ +125 u57½ -110
Medium Lean OVER anything under 60
UL Lafayette vs San Diego State - New Orleans Bowl - Superdome - New Orleans, LA - ESPN
Sat 12/17 205 UL Lafayette +5 -110 +180 o58½ -110
9:00PM 206 San Diego State -5 -110 -220 u58½ -110
Small lean ULL
Florida International vs Marshall - St. Petersburg Bowl - Tropicana Field - St. Petersburg, FL - ESPN
Tue 12/20 207 Florida International -4 -110 -185 o48½ -110
8:00PM 208 Marshall +4 -110 +160 u48½ -110
Heavy lean Marshall, possibly ML action too
Young QB for Marshall has progressed each game all year while FIU has regressed as the year went on.
Louisiana Tech vs TCU - Poinsettia Bowl - Qualcomm Stadium - San Diego, CA - ESPN
Wed 12/21 209 Louisiana Tech +10½ -110 +340 o55½ -110
8:00PM 210 TCU -10½ -110 -425 u55½ -110
Medium Lean TCU if the line hits 10
Top 10 TCU offense has looked good all year playing not so great competition, and La Tech is a not so great competitor
Arizona State vs Boise State - Maaco Las Vegas Bowl - Sam Boyd Stadium - Las Vegas, NV - ESPN
Thu 12/22 211 Arizona State +14 -110 +425 o66 -110
8:00PM 212 Boise State -14 -110 -550 u66 -110
Already bet on Boise -14. Small lean to the over as well. Boise going up against a below average Pac 12 team whose defense can give up some points. I think Boise could easily put up 45 in this game.
Nevada vs Southern Mississippi - Hawaii Bowl - Aloha Stadium - Honolulu, HI - ESPN
Sat 12/24 213 Nevada +6 -110
8:00PM 214 Southern Mississippi -6 -110
For me, it is either Southern Miss or NO PLAY. With the head coach gone, it will be a NO PLAY
North Carolina vs Missouri - Independence Bowl - Independence Stadium - Shreveport, LA - ESPN2
Mon 12/26 215 North Carolina +5 -110 +180 o53 -110
5:00PM 216 Missouri -5 -110 -220 u53 -110
Small lean UNC. Would love it to be 6, but at 5, I would through a unit down on it. I see both teams as being pretty much equal, neither outshines the other in any aspect. With that being said, I'll take the team who is getting points.
Western Michigan vs Purdue - Little Caesars Bowl - Ford Field - Detroit, MI - ESPN
Tue 12/27 217 Western Michigan +2½ -110 +115 o60 -110
4:30PM 218 Purdue -2½ -110 -135 u60 -110
NO PLAY
Louisville vs NC State - Belk Bowl - Bank of America Stadium - Charlotte, NC - ESPN
Tue 12/27 219 Louisville +3 +120 o44½ -110
8:00PM 220 NC State -3 -140 u44½ -110
Small lean NC State, very small lean to the Under b/c both defenses are decent and offenses aren't great
Toledo vs Air Force - Military Bowl - RFK Stadium - Washington, DC - ESPN
Wed 12/28 221 Toledo -3 -120 -170 o70 -110
4:30PM 222 Air Force +3 +100 +150 u70 -110
Small lean Toledo. Air Force's defense is terrible. While their offense is tough to stop, Toledo could easily score 40+ in this game. Air Force has not beaten a halfway decent team all year. Toledo started out 1-3 and finished on a 7-1 run. Their offense is rolling at a good time.
California vs Texas - Holiday Bowl - Qualcomm Stadium - San Diego, CA - ESPN
Wed 12/28 223 California +3 +140 o47½ -110
8:00PM 224 Texas -3 -160 u47½ -110
Really don't think I will make a play here. I sorta like Texas but Cal played very well towards the end of the season.
Notre Dame vs Florida State - Champs Sports Bowl - Citrus Bowl Stadium - Orlando, FL - ESPN
Thu 12/29 225 Notre Dame +3 +125 o46½ -110
5:30PM 226 Florida State -3 -145 u46½ -110
Already on Notre Dame, kinda second guessing my bet here. Florida State has the #4 ranked defense in the country and have been clicking late in the season apart from a 1 game hiccup against Virginia.
Washington U vs Baylor - Alamo Bowl - Alamodome - San Antonio, TX - ESPN
Thu 12/29 227 Washington U +9 -110 +285 o78½ -110
9:00PM 228 Baylor -9 -110 -345 u78½ -110
Heavy lean Baylor. Small lean to the over. My reasoning is essentially placing trust in RG3. Washington U pass D is bad, and I see RG3 picking it apart.
Tulsa vs BYU - Armed Forces Bowl - Gerald Ford Stadium - Dallas, TX - ESPN
Fri 12/30 229 Tulsa +3 +125 o55½ -110
12:00PM 230 BYU -3 -145 u55½ -110
Small lean Tulsa. Their 4 losses are from 4 top 8 opponents. BYU defense is legit which is making me hesitant on this line. I probably won't end up betting, but if I had to, I'd go with Tulsa.
Rutgers vs Iowa State - Pinstripe Bowl - Yankee Stadium - Bronx, NY - ESPN
Fri 12/30 231 Rutgers -1½ -110 -125 o45 -110
3:20PM 232 Iowa State +1½ -110 +105 u45 -110
NO PLAY
Wake Forest vs Mississippi State - Music Bowl - LP Field - Nashville, TN - ESPN
Fri 12/30 233 Wake Forest +7 +230 o48 -110
6:40PM 234 Mississippi State -7 -270 u48 -110
It is hard to bet against the SEC, as the conference always performs well in bowl games. Wake has lost 4 of its last 5 and got CRUSHED by Vandy in the last game.
Iowa vs Oklahoma - Insight Bowl - Sun Devil Stadium - Tempe, AZ - ESPN
Fri 12/30 235 Iowa +14 -110 +440 o58 -110
10:00PM 236 Oklahoma -14 -110 -580 u58 -110
Medium lean Iowa. Fading OU alllllll day long. They suck in bowl games, they don;'t want to be in the 'Insight bowl' and 14 points in a large number.
Texas A&M vs Northwestern - Meinke Car Care Texas Bowl - Reliant Stadium - Houston, TX - ESPN
Sat 12/31 237 Texas A&M -10 -110 -370 o65 -110
12:00PM 238 Northwestern +10 -110 +310 u65 -110
Medium lean OVER. I like Northwestern here at +10, but it is a very fishy line. Essentially a home game for A&M. Over should be decent.
Utah vs Georgia Tech - Sun Bowl - Sun Bowl Stadium - El Paso, TX - CBS
Sat 12/31 239 Utah +3½ +145 o50½ -110
2:00PM 240 Georgia Tech -3½ -165 u50½ -110
Small lean Utah. GaTech is terrible in bowl games. With a month of preparation, teams can easily decipher the GaTech offense. However, it is hard to bet on a Utah team.
UCLA vs Illinois - Fight Hunger Bowl - AT&T Park - San Francisco, CA - ESPN
Sat 12/31 241 UCLA +2½ +120 o47 -110
3:30PM 242 Illinois -2½ -140 u47 -110
Both head coaches are gone, and both teams are inconsistent. NO PLAY
This post was edited on 12/10/11 at 9:54 pm
Posted on 12/10/11 at 9:48 pm to TigerTatorTots
PART 2
quote:
Cincinnati U vs Vanderbilt - Liberty Bowl - Liberty Bowl - Memphis, TN - ABC
Sat 12/31 243 Cincinnati U +2½ +100 +130 o48½ -110
3:30PM 244 Vanderbilt -2½ -120 -150 u48½ -110
Medium lean Vandy. SEC play. Vandy D has most INTs in football going up against a freshman QB with 3 starts.
Virginia vs Auburn - Chick Fil-A Bowl - Georgia Dome - Atlanta, GA - ESPN
Sat 12/31 245 Virginia +1½ -110 +105 o49 -110
7:30PM 246 Auburn -1½ -110 -125 u49 -110
Small lean Auburn. SEC play
Penn State vs Houston U - Ticket City Bowl - Cotton Bowl - Dallas, TX - ESPNU
Mon 1/2 247 Penn State +5½ -110 +185 o57½ -110
12:00PM 248 Houston U -5½ -110 -225 u57½ -110
Medium lean Penn St. They will be able to move the ball against Houston's high school defense. Houston probably won't be able to do what they want against Penn St's very good defense. I think Penn St wins this game and will probably put a unit on the ML as well.
Michigan State vs Georgia - Outback Bowl - Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL - ABC
Mon 1/2 249 Michigan State +3½ -110 +158 o50 -110
1:00PM 250 Georgia -3½ -110 -180 u50 -110
Small lean UGA. SEC play
Nebraska vs South Carolina - Capital One Bowl - Citrus Bowl Stadium - Orlando, FL - ESPN
Mon 1/2 251 Nebraska +2½ -110 +115 o48 -110
1:00PM 252 South Carolina -2½ -110 -135 u48 -110
Already on South Carolina -1. I like them all the way to -3.
Florida vs Ohio State - Gator Bowl - Everbank Field - Jacksonville, FL - ESPN2
Mon 1/2 253 Florida -2 -110 -130 o44 -110
1:00PM 254 Ohio State +2 -110 +110 u44 -110
I like Ohio St here, but I can't bet against the SEC. Things can change with Weis gone, maybe they actually run an offense. NO PLAY
Wisconsin vs Oregon - Rose Bowl - Rose Bowl - Pasadena, CA - ESPN
Mon 1/2 255 Wisconsin +6 -110 +200 o72 -110
5:00PM 256 Oregon -6 -110 -240 u72 -110
Already on the over. I like the over all the way 74. I have a Small-Medium lean to Wisconsin. Small at 6, Medium if it gets to 7. I will end up betting them before the game.
Stanford vs Oklahoma State - Fiesta Bowl - University Stadium - Glendale, AZ - ESPN
Mon 1/2 257 Stanford +3½ +150 o74 -110
8:30PM 258 Oklahoma State -3½ -170 u74 -110
Love Stanford here, OKst thinks they should be in the NCG. One of the biggest factors to fade is teams who think they should be in a better bowl. Luck is the best Qb in the country and I place my trust in him.
Michigan vs Virginia Tech - Sugar Bowl - Superdome - New Orleans, LA - ESPN
Tue 1/3 259 Michigan -2½ -110 -140 o51 -110
8:30PM 260 Virginia Tech +2½ -110 +120 u51 -110
I can't believe Michigan opened +3 here and dropped over 5 points. I like Michigan here, but only in a small bet as a favorite. At their opening line, I would have made them my biggest bet of the bowl season.
West Virginia vs Clemson - Orange Bowl - Sun Life Stadium - Miami, FL - ESPN
Wed 1/4 261 West Virginia +3½ -110 +150 o60½ -110
8:30PM 262 Clemson -3½ -110 -170 u60½ -110
Like Clemson a whole lot more when the spread was below 3. At this number, I would go small. If you can get it at 3, or even better, 2.5, I like it a lot more.
Kansas State vs Arkansas - Cotton Bowl - Cowboys Stadium - Arlington, TX - Fox
Fri 1/6 263 Kansas State +7½ -110 +255 o63 -110
8:00PM 264 Arkansas -7½ -110 -310 u63 -110
Small lean Arky. SEC play. I won't play it if it isn't 7 or below.
SMU vs Pittsburgh U - Compass Bowl - Legion Field - Birmingham, AL - ESPN
Sat 1/7 265 SMU +5 -110 +175 o48 -110
1:00PM 266 Pittsburgh U -5 -110 -210 u48 -110
Small lean Pittsburgh, more of a fade against SMU.
Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois - GoDaddy.com Bowl - Ladd Pebbles Stadium - Mobile, AL - ESPN
Sun 1/8 267 Arkansas State -1½ -110 -125 o62½ -110
9:00PM 268 Northern Illinois +1½ -110 +105 u62½ -110
Small lean NIU. Arky St's awesome coach is gone, big reason to fade them.
Alabama vs LSU - BCS Championship - Louisiana Superdome - New Orleans, LA - ESPN
Mon 1/9 269 Alabama +1 -110 o40 -110 o20 -105 u20 -115
9:05PM 270 LSU -1 -110
No explanation needed here. Geaux Tigers!
This post was edited on 12/10/11 at 9:57 pm
Posted on 12/10/11 at 9:51 pm to TigerTatorTots
i thought the first page was for reserved?
i posted my early/post going out Saturday night plays for NFL/already had 3-4 double goose(geese?)
i posted my early/post going out Saturday night plays for NFL/already had 3-4 double goose(geese?)
Posted on 12/10/11 at 9:57 pm to aVatiger
Reserved them to copy/paste my leans for each game.
Posted on 12/10/11 at 10:26 pm to TigerTatorTots
ok, i hear ya 
i'll do the same for mine above you.. mine looking almost the exact same, just gonna wait till after MNF to really examine the plays
i'll do the same for mine above you.. mine looking almost the exact same, just gonna wait till after MNF to really examine the plays
Posted on 12/10/11 at 10:34 pm to aVatiger
Can't wait for the games to start up
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