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Started By
Message
re: Derby Hopefuls for this year?
Posted on 4/27/11 at 1:47 pm to Aspercel
Posted on 4/27/11 at 1:47 pm to Aspercel
10 facts to consider for Derby day:
1. No horse has won the Kentucky Derby without running a race at 2 years old since Apollo did it in 1882. Midnight Interlude will try to buck this century old barrier.
2. Only 3 horses have won from Post Positions 17-20 since 1900. No horse has ever won from Post Position 19. Pay attention to this year's post position draw. If you like a speed horse that will come out of post 19 or 20, discount his chances big time!
3. Only 2 geldings have won the Kentucky Derby since 1929…Funny Cide and Mine That Bird.
4. Since Beyer Speed Figures were introduced in the Daily Racing Form in 1987, no horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby with a Beyer figure of less than 101. Sunday Silence earned the lowest winning Beyer Speed Figure (101) and Monarchos earned the highest (116).
5. In the past 17 years, only one horse (Mine That Bird) has won the Kentucky Derby after earning a BRIS Speed Rating of less than 100 in one of their final two preps. Only three horses in the probably Derby field posted a BRIS Speed Rating of 100+ in one of their final two preps.
6. 94% of Kentucky Derby winners finished either first, second or third in their final Derby prep. There are about 6 horses that could make the Derby field that did not finish in the money in their last prep race.
7. A horse must have run at least one race at 1 1/8 miles prior to the Kentucky Derby to be considered a win contender.
8. Eight of the last 11 Kentucky Derby winners have come from the Raise A Native sire line.
9. In the past 70 years, no Derby winner has ever won with a Dosage Index higher than 5.4. All 2011 Derby candidates easily meet this criteria.
10. Lightly raced speed horses that owned the lone lead in their final two prep races are always over bet and always disappoint.
LINK
1. No horse has won the Kentucky Derby without running a race at 2 years old since Apollo did it in 1882. Midnight Interlude will try to buck this century old barrier.
2. Only 3 horses have won from Post Positions 17-20 since 1900. No horse has ever won from Post Position 19. Pay attention to this year's post position draw. If you like a speed horse that will come out of post 19 or 20, discount his chances big time!
3. Only 2 geldings have won the Kentucky Derby since 1929…Funny Cide and Mine That Bird.
4. Since Beyer Speed Figures were introduced in the Daily Racing Form in 1987, no horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby with a Beyer figure of less than 101. Sunday Silence earned the lowest winning Beyer Speed Figure (101) and Monarchos earned the highest (116).
5. In the past 17 years, only one horse (Mine That Bird) has won the Kentucky Derby after earning a BRIS Speed Rating of less than 100 in one of their final two preps. Only three horses in the probably Derby field posted a BRIS Speed Rating of 100+ in one of their final two preps.
6. 94% of Kentucky Derby winners finished either first, second or third in their final Derby prep. There are about 6 horses that could make the Derby field that did not finish in the money in their last prep race.
7. A horse must have run at least one race at 1 1/8 miles prior to the Kentucky Derby to be considered a win contender.
8. Eight of the last 11 Kentucky Derby winners have come from the Raise A Native sire line.
9. In the past 70 years, no Derby winner has ever won with a Dosage Index higher than 5.4. All 2011 Derby candidates easily meet this criteria.
10. Lightly raced speed horses that owned the lone lead in their final two prep races are always over bet and always disappoint.
LINK
1
Posted on 4/27/11 at 2:10 pm to Rohan2Reed
Calvin gets his derby mount
he'll be on twice the appeal, the sunland park derby winner
i also need to say the i couldn't sleep last night so i watched all the preps again. i'm confused about shackleford. i guess coming from off the pace didn't work so well in the foy. go back and watch that and compare to fl derby.
also, if there's not much pace a total bomb play could be decisive moment. i'm sure comma and shackleford will be out there with him, though
he'll be on twice the appeal, the sunland park derby winner
i also need to say the i couldn't sleep last night so i watched all the preps again. i'm confused about shackleford. i guess coming from off the pace didn't work so well in the foy. go back and watch that and compare to fl derby.
also, if there's not much pace a total bomb play could be decisive moment. i'm sure comma and shackleford will be out there with him, though
This post was edited on 4/27/11 at 2:13 pm
Posted on 4/27/11 at 2:22 pm to sms151t
My g/f is originally from St. Louis. Needless to say we know which horse she likes the best.
Posted on 4/27/11 at 3:05 pm to Aspercel
quote:
Calvin gets his derby mount
he'll be on twice the appeal, the sunland park derby winner
man, i just don't see much potential out of that horse. pedigree is decent but his daddy never really won anything.
quote:
i also need to say the i couldn't sleep last night so i watched all the preps again. i'm confused about shackleford. i guess coming from off the pace didn't work so well in the foy. go back and watch that and compare to fl derby.
Shackleford is a front-runner. he'll fade on the far turn if the pace is quick. IF he does that well. I really see him as a fluke.
quote:
also, if there's not much pace a total bomb play could be decisive moment. i'm sure comma and shackleford will be out there with him, though
what i like about Decisive is how many races he's run at a mile or more. could surprise.
Posted on 4/27/11 at 3:24 pm to Rohan2Reed
so the foy is where they were trying someting new with him? i thought maybe the fla derby was the first time they actually sent him.
i will say that decisive moment was very impressive looking in person. very well filled out. i liked his last race where he wasn't right on the lead and fought back a bit. plus, i'll be cheering for kerwin
i think calvin's horse is in past his distance, but who knows this year
and what happens if nobody wants the lead in this heavy closing field and some longshot walks away with it on the front end...??
i will say that decisive moment was very impressive looking in person. very well filled out. i liked his last race where he wasn't right on the lead and fought back a bit. plus, i'll be cheering for kerwin
i think calvin's horse is in past his distance, but who knows this year
and what happens if nobody wants the lead in this heavy closing field and some longshot walks away with it on the front end...??
Posted on 4/27/11 at 3:40 pm to Aspercel
quote:
i'll be cheering for kerwin
Kerwin clark has a mount? GTFO!
Does Jaime Theriot have one? I haven't looked at a damn thing. I'm waiting on you
Posted on 4/27/11 at 3:47 pm to lathoroughbred
Kerwin has a possible sleeper mount
theriot does not, though if he did he'd only give effort if it was a Calhoun horse
I am not a theriot fan
theriot does not, though if he did he'd only give effort if it was a Calhoun horse
I am not a theriot fan
Posted on 4/27/11 at 3:50 pm to Aspercel
Jaime has won a couple races for me. Clark has rode for me I think once or twice. I will have to dig up all my horse pictures and get them on scan. I will holla this weekend at ya if I don't drown up there first.
Posted on 4/27/11 at 4:16 pm to lathoroughbred
With the Factor out it seems there won't be much pace up front. What's the story on the Illinois Derby winner? Will they supplement him and if so will he get in?
Posted on 4/27/11 at 4:29 pm to Bho
They will not, I guess since zayat already has one in.
That's why I'm looking to add a pace horse or one who sits just off it
Latb send them!!! Also, I want baby pictures of my horse :)
That's why I'm looking to add a pace horse or one who sits just off it
Latb send them!!! Also, I want baby pictures of my horse :)
This post was edited on 4/27/11 at 4:31 pm
Posted on 4/28/11 at 12:15 am to Aspercel
quote:
so the foy is where they were trying someting new with him? i thought maybe the fla derby was the first time they actually sent him.
i'm not sure. post 5 in the FL derby vs. post 8 in the FOY might have had something to do with it. i think he got caught wide on the first turn in the foy and could never recover, despite the pace being set at .24, .48 and 1:13.
quote:
i will say that decisive moment was very impressive looking in person. very well filled out. i liked his last race where he wasn't right on the lead and fought back a bit. plus, i'll be cheering for kerwin
gonna wait and see what post position he gets, but he's definitely one to watch on Derby day and see how he's feeling.
quote:
i think calvin's horse is in past his distance, but who knows this year
indeed.. wild card.
quote:
and what happens if nobody wants the lead in this heavy closing field and some longshot walks away with it on the front end...??
they better set a pretty swift pace otherwise Dialed In or Nehro will probably take it.
Posted on 4/28/11 at 12:29 am to Rohan2Reed
i think if they set a not swift pace then horses like nehro and dialed in are in trouble. especially dialed in as he lags at the back every time (and has leparoux aboard). if there is no hot pace he may be shite out of luck.
nehro can sit closer to the front like he did in the louisiana derby. he seems to be a little more versatile for a one run type of horse.
this derby went from a fast pace to nothing pretty damn quick. all i know is that somebody better go out there with comma to the top or he may just coast early and save some
what would you do if they went in 25 and 49 in this derby?! can you imagine?!
nehro can sit closer to the front like he did in the louisiana derby. he seems to be a little more versatile for a one run type of horse.
this derby went from a fast pace to nothing pretty damn quick. all i know is that somebody better go out there with comma to the top or he may just coast early and save some
what would you do if they went in 25 and 49 in this derby?! can you imagine?!
Posted on 4/28/11 at 1:44 pm to Aspercel
quote:
what would you do if they went in 25 and 49 in this derby?! can you imagine?!
certainly possible if they're running on the slop!
from today:
quote:
The probable Kentucky Derby favorite, Dialed In, worked an easy half-mile in :48 2/5 Thursday morning at Palm Meadows in south Florida.
According to Daily Racing Form clocker Mike Welsch, the son of Mineshaft recorded splits of :12, :24 2/5 and :36 4/5 before finishing in :48 2/5. He broke off a half-length behind stablemate Miner's Escape, but rallied to finish three lengths in front of him. Dialed In then galloped out five furlongs in 1:01 2/5.
"This is what I wanted - those 12's," trainer Nick Zito said of the 12-second splits. "This horse is very rippled. This horse is very ready. I can guarantee this horse is not going to be short. I can't guarantee anything else, but I'll tell you he won't be short."
"We know the kind of horse he is. Any horse that gives you the last eighth in 11 and change.... I don't know what else he can give you? The horse is happy here. He likes the track."
i like this horse.. he looks scrappy.
This post was edited on 4/28/11 at 1:45 pm
Posted on 4/28/11 at 2:53 pm to Rohan2Reed
Let me see if I have this correct:
Twice the Appeal 2 wins in 9 one as a maiden and a claimer, no stakes win on dam's side and Man O War is 7 generations removed on Sire. Colt won in New Mexico at Sunland. The colt went 1:17 on the 22nd also so...
Mine That Bird happens once a lifetime, but Bo can make it happen twice. I might be throwing my money away but this looks like a winner when there is no clear winner.
Arch Cubed and Nehro will probably get the money, I am thinking sneak a bet with Bo and laugh at the window...if not wont be first or last time wrong.
Twice the Appeal 2 wins in 9 one as a maiden and a claimer, no stakes win on dam's side and Man O War is 7 generations removed on Sire. Colt won in New Mexico at Sunland. The colt went 1:17 on the 22nd also so...
Mine That Bird happens once a lifetime, but Bo can make it happen twice. I might be throwing my money away but this looks like a winner when there is no clear winner.
Arch Cubed and Nehro will probably get the money, I am thinking sneak a bet with Bo and laugh at the window...if not wont be first or last time wrong.
Posted on 4/28/11 at 4:26 pm to sms151t
quote:
Let me see if I have this correct:
Twice the Appeal 2 wins in 9 one as a maiden and a claimer, no stakes win on dam's side and Man O War is 7 generations removed on Sire. Colt won in New Mexico at Sunland. The colt went 1:17 on the 22nd also so...
Mine That Bird happens once a lifetime, but Bo can make it happen twice. I might be throwing my money away but this looks like a winner when there is no clear winner.
man you almost have me convinced
i'll put 2 down just because it's Calvin, but I doubt if i'll box Appeal or put him in my tri or super. there's just not much potential here. word is out on Nehro.. he'll probably get bet down and lose value he would've had as a sleeper. still like Arch3, Mo and Soldat. even though i like Dialed In a lot, honestly he's probably another closer who will just miss the money.
Posted on 4/28/11 at 4:46 pm to Rohan2Reed
here's a good post i just saw on a racing forum:
quote:
Dialed In rallied from far back to win the Florida Derby but a couple of his highly regarded rivals (Soldat, Stay Thirsty) never fired and pacesetter Shackleford crawled home. Nick Zito's lightly raced colt was visually impressive in his two wins around one turn but looked ordinary in both nine furlong starts in Florida. He works have been few and far between and Zito has been reluctant to ship him all year. The one run closer will need everything to go his way in a 20-horse field.
Posted on 4/28/11 at 6:41 pm to Rohan2Reed
That's what I have a problem with with Dialed In, and may have previously mentioned it. You just aren't going to make that big move in the stretch unless you get REALLY LUCKY. What is the story with Master of Hounds? I know he is Euro and had a bad race in the Juvi Turf, but he did get clipped going 1 3/16 miles in the UAE derby. If I'm not mistaken, no other horse has gone that far yet and he proved he could. Stalker should be in a good spot. In a race with so many questions, that may have to be where my money goes.
Posted on 4/28/11 at 6:48 pm to Rohan2Reed
quote:
i like this horse.. he looks scrappy.
Wearing the Iona maroon and gold. Let's go Dialed In.
Posted on 4/28/11 at 6:51 pm to Bho
i need to do some research on Hounds. don't know much about him.
Posted on 4/28/11 at 6:52 pm to IonaTiger
quote:
Wearing the Iona maroon and gold. Let's go Dialed In.
you're right here's his silks
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