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re: OFFICIAL Week 2 CFB bet thread™
Posted on 9/4/14 at 11:54 pm to PPBeastMode
Posted on 9/4/14 at 11:54 pm to PPBeastMode
Welp Arizona smh
Dropped the Zona game, but even on the night & week. In true degenerate form, I won the over in the Texas College/Texas Southern game.
Dropped the Zona game, but even on the night & week. In true degenerate form, I won the over in the Texas College/Texas Southern game.
0
Posted on 9/5/14 at 4:10 am to BeYou
quote:
Moving on to tomorrow night.
I'm liking Pitt -4, but don't know why.
Posted on 9/5/14 at 10:28 am to 4LSU2
quote:
I'm liking Pitt -4, but don't know why.
I'm the opposite. I don't like to reach, but I love betting home dogs on Thursday/Friday games. It's always payed well. Anyone have any insight on this game? I'm tired of sifting through bullshite on Covers.
Posted on 9/5/14 at 10:53 am to B1rdman15
quote:
I'm the opposite. I don't like to reach, but I love betting home dogs on Thursday/Friday games. It's always payed well. Anyone have any insight on this game? I'm tired of sifting through bullshite on Covers.
BC is going to run the ball, as that's what Steve Addazio does. They will grind drives out. They rarely score quick, looking at the length of their scoring drives against UMass: 5:48, 4:59, 7:23, 6:06, 4:41, 4:54, and 1:28. They do have a new QB, Tyler Murphy (Florida transfer who backed up Driskel and started for UF after the Driskel injury) who is a DT-QB. He had one pass that was 20 yards or more (43 yards for a TD, the drive that took 1:28 and was a busted coverage by UMass). He was the first BC player to have 100+ passing and 100+ rushing yards in 1 game in the past 15 years for BC. He is much more of a running QB than he is a throwing QB. They start games slow (up 6-0 against the mighty UMass team at halftime) but can be efficient on offense.
Their match up against Pitts defense will be interesting. It comes down to whether than can keep Murphy from running free. Pittsburgh was 46th against the run last season and held Delaware (once again its Delaware...) to 26 rushing yards on 30 attempts. Pitt also returned 2 DL, 2 LBs (best players on their defense), and 2 DBs. I think they contain Murphy, load the box, and force him to beat them throwing the ball and I wouldn't bet on that. Never been impressed with Murphy as a passer.
Pitt has more of a conventional pro style QB but they too where run happy last weekend. They ran the ball efficiently against Delaware. Not sure just how bad Delaware is though. They have a better QB than BC and he can make some throws, although Pitts QB only had 1 pass exceed 15 yards last weekend.
Matched up against BC, BC returns 3 DBs (who gave up only 147 yards in the air to UMass last weekend). They are weak along their DLine which makes me believe Pitt is going to try and beat them on the ground.
Expect a "pro style" of CFB game tonight. I lean Pitt -4, they have a more consistent offense and matchup well on defense. However, I think I like U 49.5 more tonight as I see both of these teams running the ball and shortening the game (BC averaged the fewest amount of plays per game last season).
ETA: Still need to consider this as a shorten week Friday night game, which is why I am staying away from the spread and considering playing the U.
This post was edited on 9/5/14 at 11:11 am
Posted on 9/5/14 at 11:45 am to BeYou
Based on the little knowledge I have and all the great info you just gave, I'm sort of thinking the 1st have UNDER is a good bet at 24.5.
I would imagine they will be running the ball a lot and work slow
I would imagine they will be running the ball a lot and work slow
Posted on 9/5/14 at 12:17 pm to BeYou
I'm on Pitt-4 but I lean Under the total as well.
Posted on 9/5/14 at 12:36 pm to DallasTiger45
The line on TopBet just jumped to -5
Posted on 9/5/14 at 12:56 pm to BeYou
Nice write up man. Great perspective.
Posted on 9/5/14 at 12:58 pm to B1rdman15
quote:
Nice write up man. Great perspective.
Thanks. I spent some time yesterday looking over the game and thought I might as well get my thoughts down for my own benefit as well.
Then again, I thought Zona would cover last night and win by 10. Didn't see them kicked 4 FGs but that's betting for you.
Posted on 9/5/14 at 1:02 pm to BeYou
I decided several years ago after a bad Rich Rod bet I'd never bet on his team again. I have rules, that's one of them.
Posted on 9/5/14 at 1:11 pm to BeYou
First half lines catching my interest at first glance:
Memphis @ UCLA (-13.5)
UAB at Mississippi State (-16.5)
Memphis @ UCLA (-13.5)
UAB at Mississippi State (-16.5)
Posted on 9/5/14 at 1:24 pm to PurpleAndGold86
Locked in the BC/Pitt 1st half UNDER
Posted on 9/5/14 at 1:32 pm to PurpleAndGold86
Memphis is one of my most improved teams this year... don't like that play
Their defense is good
Their defense is good
Posted on 9/5/14 at 1:45 pm to Tiger1242
I'd be interested to hear some other opinions on Navy(-3) at Temple. I was really impressed with Navy last week on offense and defense against OSU and felt that the final score didn't really tell the whole story of that game. I think OSU's athletes finally wore Navy down in the end and I'm not sure Temple can rely on that.
On the flip side, I know Temple whooped Vandy pretty bad, but Vandy was just absolutely terrible with TO's (7!). I mean Temple was only 2-17 on 3rd downs and still put up 37 points just off field position. Their worst starting field position on a TD was their own 36 and five times they started in Vandy's territory.
I'm really leaning towards taking Navy(-3) as they shouldn't be turnover and penalty prone like Vandy was and just hand the game to Temple.
On the flip side, I know Temple whooped Vandy pretty bad, but Vandy was just absolutely terrible with TO's (7!). I mean Temple was only 2-17 on 3rd downs and still put up 37 points just off field position. Their worst starting field position on a TD was their own 36 and five times they started in Vandy's territory.
I'm really leaning towards taking Navy(-3) as they shouldn't be turnover and penalty prone like Vandy was and just hand the game to Temple.
Posted on 9/5/14 at 2:10 pm to Tiger1242
quote:
1st half under
Huge fan of the first half under
Posted on 9/5/14 at 2:11 pm to goldennugget
quote:
Memphis is one of my most improved teams this year... don't like that play
Their defense is good
I agree with you on this and would be careful playing UCLA. Memphis has one of the best DLines out of the non P5 conference school and with the way UCLA OLine struggled last weekend, I wouldn't be all that surprise to see them struggle again this weekend.
Posted on 9/5/14 at 2:15 pm to DFWAggie09
quote:
Navy(-3) at Temple
Agreed. Navy taking a huge step down in class. Should be an easy one.
Posted on 9/5/14 at 3:39 pm to DFWAggie09
I'm staying away from that game. Navy looked pretty solid but so did Temple. I know we all think Vandy sucks now but they had high hopes going into that game, hell Temple was a 13 point underdog. Basically I dk how to judge Temple right now bc I dk how bad Vandy is, so I'm not betting that game
Posted on 9/5/14 at 3:41 pm to Tiger1242
Vandy had 7 turnovers... Don't over think this game. Navy will not have 7 turnovers, I can promise you that.
Posted on 9/5/14 at 3:48 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
quote:
Vandy had 7 turnovers...
Which is why I am considering backing them if it gets to +21.5.
Also like SMU +3 this weekend against UNT.
This post was edited on 9/5/14 at 3:49 pm
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