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2
Posted on 10/18/12 at 1:44 pm to LSUJuice
@Nemo_718: mushes all over oregon. razors siding with arizona state. bookies loving the way the money is breakdown. #razorsvsmushes
Posted on 10/18/12 at 1:45 pm to LSUJuice
Is A+M's defense that good?
With the new Oline of LSU they might finish the game like the should have against Florida
They just need to execute better in the Red Zone and get TD's
With the new Oline of LSU they might finish the game like the should have against Florida
They just need to execute better in the Red Zone and get TD's
Posted on 10/18/12 at 1:45 pm to ChemE in the OP
Jumped on the mush side at -7 (-120).
Quack quack.
Week 8 Card:
Army -2.5
Florida -3
BYU/ND UNDER 40
Ball State -3
Oregon -7
Quack quack.
Week 8 Card:
Army -2.5
Florida -3
BYU/ND UNDER 40
Ball State -3
Oregon -7
Posted on 10/18/12 at 1:47 pm to bamafan425
Yea I should've waited, I'm on -8. On the under in ALCS and NFL... If ASU covers I hope they win SU.
Posted on 10/18/12 at 1:54 pm to ChemE in the OP
I think the UNDER in ALCS is a nice play. Extra day of rest for the pitchers. I think CC throws a gem.
Posted on 10/18/12 at 1:59 pm to bobbyray21
quote:
Let me preface this by saying that I do believe that there is such a thing as a soft line. In other words, when I see a line that looks a little off or just too good to be true, I don't automatically jump to the conclusion that something is "up" and that Vegas knows something I don't know.* To the contrary, I usually toss down big on it, and have had success in those instances.
All that being said, what the funk is up with this San Jose St. line? It started at -14 and is now down to -10.5 I'm really close to tossing down my life savings on this game, but I just want to make doubly sure I'm not missing something.
For those unfamiliar with the WAC, here is the executive summary: a power tiered-out power ranking:
1. La Tech
---- half mile dropoff ------
2. Utah State
---- full mile dropoff ------
3. San Jose State
----- 26.2 mile dropoff ------
4. Idaho
4. Texas State
4. UTSA
---- 1 mile dropoff ----
7. New Mexico State
The bottom four are virtually indistinguishable. I'd probably rate Texas State as the best of the bunch followed by Idaho followed by UTSA followed by atrocious atrocious New Mexico State. Your mileage may vary on the bottom four.
San Jose State lost to Stanford on the road 17-20. They beat a good SDSU team on the road 38-34. They lost to a good Utah State team 27-49 at home. But, again, Utah State is pretty good. I've seen them play twice now and they even passed the eyeball test.
UTSA beat South Alabama by two (at south alabama). Played three FCS teams, then beat atrocious atrocious New Mexico State on the road before losing to dogtrash Rice on the road. Yes, the same Rice that lost to dogtrash Memphis.
I handicapped this game as San Jose State-21.5**, and the more I look at it the more convinced I am that I set it in the right spot.
So, in view of all of the above, should I toss down my life savings on the Spartans, or am I missing something?
__________________________________
*I do think that in NFL betting, a line that appears to be too good to be true probably is too good to be true. But NFL betting and CFB betting are two different animals. NFL lines are definitely tighter.
**I go through and set lines for the games before looking at the actual lines. This way I avoid any anchoring bias. LINK
Come on, nobody wants to give me their thoughts on San Jose State?
Posted on 10/18/12 at 2:00 pm to SDVTiger
I think aTm's defense is ok. The question is whether or not last week's o-line is the real LSU o-line. I need some more evidence before I buy-in. Right now the SC game is an outlier of sorts.
Count me in with the mushes too. But if I lose my money I sure do hope ASU wins SU.
Count me in with the mushes too. But if I lose my money I sure do hope ASU wins SU.
Posted on 10/18/12 at 2:01 pm to LSUJuice
I saw someone on San Jose State earlier. I'll do some digging and let you know my thoughts.
Posted on 10/18/12 at 2:01 pm to bobbyray21
I literally know nothing about SJSU.
Posted on 10/18/12 at 2:04 pm to LSUJuice
quote:
I think aTm's defense is ok.
they are average at best. they only played 17 guys on defense last week and there were A LOT of snaps in that game
Posted on 10/18/12 at 2:08 pm to wish i was tebow
Is their Oline as special as they are claiming on the SECr?
Posted on 10/18/12 at 2:09 pm to LSUJuice
Some projections on Oregon/ASU.
Brian Fremeau: 26-20 Oregon
CFBTN.com: 37-37
Adjusted Stats: 42-30 Oregon
Teamrankings: 37-30 Oregon
whatifsports: 30-22 Oregon
Billingsley+: Oregon by 11
Bill Connelly: Oregon by 13.5
Brian Fremeau: 26-20 Oregon
CFBTN.com: 37-37
Adjusted Stats: 42-30 Oregon
Teamrankings: 37-30 Oregon
whatifsports: 30-22 Oregon
Billingsley+: Oregon by 11
Bill Connelly: Oregon by 13.5
Posted on 10/18/12 at 2:09 pm to bamafan425
quote:
bamafan425
Preesh
Posted on 10/18/12 at 2:17 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
Is their Oline as special as they are claiming on the SECr?
Not really. If you go through manzels stats he hasnt done much against the good D's he has played. they have played a bunch of shitty defenses and thrown up a bunch of points. The have very weak DT's so i expect to see a heavy dose of ware for 5 yards a pop up the middle all game. LSU speed of the edge should keep Manzel in the pocket ( or not let him get loose much) and force him to beat LSU with his arm which he hasnt really proven he could do against a stout D.
I am actually really high on that Manzel kid in the coming years but i just dont think they have enough to get it done against LSU if the right LSU shows up. LSU controls the ball and doesnt settle for 3 all day in the redzone it could be a averagely easy cover for LSU
Posted on 10/18/12 at 2:20 pm to wish i was tebow
I agree. Thoughts on the 11am start time?
I think this plays to LSU's advantage cuase im sure Kyle Field is insane at Night
Whats LSU record with early games?
I think this plays to LSU's advantage cuase im sure Kyle Field is insane at Night
Whats LSU record with early games?
Posted on 10/18/12 at 2:21 pm to LSUJuice
quote:
I think aTm's defense is ok. The question is whether or not last week's o-line is the real LSU o-line. I need some more evidence before I buy-in. Right now the SC game is an outlier of sorts.
Seeing as how LSU hasn't shown shite on the road I wouldn't touch LSU in any way. I hardly ever bet my own teams anyway.
This game has me nervous tbh.
Posted on 10/18/12 at 2:24 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
I agree. Thoughts on the 11am start time? I think this plays to LSU's advantage cuase im sure Kyle Field is insane at Night Whats LSU record with early games?
Don't have any stats but if my memory is right we don't play very well. We win but it's ugly.
Posted on 10/18/12 at 2:26 pm to SDVTiger
I agree. Id much rather play there in the AM/afternoon then at night there. Ive seen far superior OU teams go into that place at night and get worked
LSU AM stats would be very skewed because 11AM games in the past would normally mean that they would be playing Kent or some shitty team like that so hard to tell.
I really think LSU will pound the ball all day up the middle. LSU strongest against A&M's weak link. I wouldnt be surprised if A&M came out quick but just dont think they have enough to stay with LSU for an entire game as long as LSU protects the ball. Like i said in my previous post I think Ware will have a huge day with the toss dive play up the middle and when that D gets tired ( which they will especially with that game they played last week) the edge will be hill and Fords for the taking
LSU AM stats would be very skewed because 11AM games in the past would normally mean that they would be playing Kent or some shitty team like that so hard to tell.
I really think LSU will pound the ball all day up the middle. LSU strongest against A&M's weak link. I wouldnt be surprised if A&M came out quick but just dont think they have enough to stay with LSU for an entire game as long as LSU protects the ball. Like i said in my previous post I think Ware will have a huge day with the toss dive play up the middle and when that D gets tired ( which they will especially with that game they played last week) the edge will be hill and Fords for the taking
Posted on 10/18/12 at 2:31 pm to wish i was tebow
I think LSU would beat anyone in the country (BAMA being the exception) if they protect the damn ball.
BAMA is the only team I can see beating LSU straight up no turnovers.
BAMA is the only team I can see beating LSU straight up no turnovers.
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