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re: OFFICIAL Week 8 CFB bet thread™
Posted on 10/16/12 at 11:56 am to Rohan2Reed
Posted on 10/16/12 at 11:56 am to Rohan2Reed
Not really looked at it, and probably won't. I have had trouble with marquee games this year. I have had more success picking smaller games, and have decided that I am going to stick to that for a while, unless I see a line that just jumps out at me.
0
Posted on 10/16/12 at 12:04 pm to bobbyray21
quote:
This is a game that I'm not trying to overthink.
Arizona State hasn't played a ranked team, and they lost to Mizzou, who blows.
Oregon demolished the two ranked teams they played (arizona, washington), and in their most recent game against Washington they put up 51 points despite pulling their starters at the start of the fourth quarter.
Oregon is better on offense. Oregon is better on defense.
The fact that it is a thursday night road game isn't nearly as much of a factor as it might otherwise be since Oregon was off last Saturday.
I don't think Arizona State can stay on the field with Oregon.
I don't think it is really a matter of over thinking it. The absolute truth is Vegas does not hang soft lines, they set the line at -9 knowing good a well they would attract tons of money on Oregon being under that key number of 10. They obviously felt comfortable enough with Arizona St to do that.
This plus my own personal analysis of the game will have me on the ASU side and the under.
Posted on 10/16/12 at 12:06 pm to dgtiger3
You ran the figures yet on the game tonight?
Posted on 10/16/12 at 12:07 pm to Rohan2Reed
I have hard time thinking WVU puts up more than 31 on Snyder's defense
Posted on 10/16/12 at 12:18 pm to aVatiger
quote:
I have hard time thinking WVU puts up more than 31 on Snyder's defense
KState combined for 70 or more points 6 times last season...just saying.
LINK
If West Virginia tackles like they did last week Kansas St could score close to 50.
I rarely if ever bet overs, but this is a good spot to bet it when you have two teams that had some of their worst offensive outputs of the season last week.
Posted on 10/16/12 at 12:26 pm to dgtiger3
Everything I have looked at on tonight's game tells me that ULL is a great pick. They run the ball well and NT cannot stop the run. ULL will keep the ball for much of the game and hang between 30-40 on that D. NT can throw it well but will not be able to run it against ULL and will become 1 dimensional.
ULL 34
NT 21
ULL 34
NT 21
Posted on 10/16/12 at 12:45 pm to AZTiger7072
quote:
Everything I have looked at on tonight's game tells me that ULL is a great pick. They run the ball well and NT cannot stop the run. ULL will keep the ball for much of the game and hang between 30-40 on that D. NT can throw it well but will not be able to run it against ULL and will become 1 dimensional.
ULL 34
NT 21
My spreadsheet says the exact same thing, reminds me a lot of the spot we were in last week with WKU on Thursday night. ULL is the better team and should win as long as they avoid turnovers and special teams plays that swing the momentum to the home dogs.
My sheet says ULL 36-23
Posted on 10/16/12 at 12:52 pm to dgtiger3
quote:
This is a game that I'm not trying to overthink. Arizona State hasn't played a ranked team, and they lost to Mizzou, who blows. Oregon demolished the two ranked teams they played (arizona, washington), and in their most recent game against Washington they put up 51 points despite pulling their starters at the start of the fourth quarter. Oregon is better on offense. Oregon is better on defense. The fact that it is a thursday night road game isn't nearly as much of a factor as it might otherwise be since Oregon was off last Saturday. I don't think Arizona State can stay on the field with Oregon.
My thoughts exactly on the game. Day of the week is irrelevant here. Oregon will crush Arizona State.
Posted on 10/16/12 at 12:53 pm to dgtiger3
quote:
ULL 36-23
Right at the 56 mark. Over is at 55.5 right now. I'm sticking with ULL -whatever the lowest I can get it at.
In fact, I just went ahead and locked it in at -3 now. Bought the hook on it.
This post was edited on 10/16/12 at 12:56 pm
Posted on 10/16/12 at 12:57 pm to tigerbaittrick
I'm laying off Oregon/Az State for now.
A 7 point teaser of Oregon -2.5/OVER 61.5 looks appealing to me, though.
As for tonight, I think the play is ULL. I would lean over, but I don't know if North Texas is gonna help out with the scoring enough to push it over.
A 7 point teaser of Oregon -2.5/OVER 61.5 looks appealing to me, though.
As for tonight, I think the play is ULL. I would lean over, but I don't know if North Texas is gonna help out with the scoring enough to push it over.
Posted on 10/16/12 at 1:02 pm to bamafan425
quote:
A 7 point teaser of Oregon -2.5/OVER 61.5 looks appealing to me, though.
That looks nice, just don't know if they o61.5 will hit
Posted on 10/16/12 at 1:09 pm to dgtiger3
quote:
My sheet says ULL 36-23
nice, finished my SPSS regression yesterday
results: ULL 31-20.
Posted on 10/16/12 at 1:23 pm to rocket31
quote:
My sheet says ULL 36-23
nice, finished my SPSS regression yesterday
results: ULL 31-20.
So basically we are just adding fuel to the fire on the bet thread being all ULL tonight.
Posted on 10/16/12 at 1:25 pm to dgtiger3
It's going to be an interesting night here. Looks like everyone here is on ULL one way or the other!
Posted on 10/16/12 at 1:28 pm to Cowbells
Better than a regular Tuesday night.
I really like the spot here. Hate going against a home dog during the week, but I think ULL will control the game and come out with a win (and cover).
I really like the spot here. Hate going against a home dog during the week, but I think ULL will control the game and come out with a win (and cover).
Posted on 10/16/12 at 1:53 pm to bamafan425
You don't just walk in to Denton on a Tuesday night and expect to come out with a victory.
Posted on 10/16/12 at 2:06 pm to LSUJuice
UL Laf getting love here and on twitter. Uh oh.
Posted on 10/16/12 at 2:28 pm to ChemE in the OP
I may go the other way just because the whole board is on ULL.
I may just stay away.
I may join in
I may just stay away.
I may join in
Posted on 10/16/12 at 2:30 pm to TexasTiger1185
At least you're decisive.
Posted on 10/16/12 at 2:49 pm to ChemE in the OP
Teaser possibility:
Miss State -13
Alabama -13.5
Seems realllll appealing.
EDIT: All teasers seem appealing. I know.
Miss State -13
Alabama -13.5
Seems realllll appealing.
EDIT: All teasers seem appealing. I know.
This post was edited on 10/16/12 at 2:51 pm
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