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Started By
Message
re: Sportscenter crunched the #'s on Belichick's call
Posted on 11/16/09 at 5:42 pm to KBeezy
Posted on 11/16/09 at 5:42 pm to KBeezy
quote:
Only figures I saw were the pats percentage on the season of getting the first with 2 yards to go vs the colts percentage of stopping a team with 2 yards to go for the first.
The first #'s they flashed at the top of the hour was the 80.5% vs. 79.0%.
They also showed the Colts defense had given up 3rd or 4th and 2 or less more than 50% of the time. The Pats had gotten the first down on 3rd/4th down and 2 or less more than 50% of the time.
1
Posted on 11/16/09 at 6:15 pm to Choupique19
With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:
(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP
A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.
Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount.
This does take into account the situation of not making the conversion.
LINK
(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP
A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.
Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount.
This does take into account the situation of not making the conversion.
LINK
Posted on 11/16/09 at 6:43 pm to niner81
For anyone that says he was right to go for it and the statistics prove it...it almost implies you should ALWAYS go for it at your own 28 with 4th and 2; regardless of the time left.
Do you think you should always go for it?
Do you think you should always go for it?
Posted on 11/16/09 at 6:45 pm to niner81
quote:
Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation.
Teams historically take more than 2:00 to get a TD in that situation. Those teams historically have the full playbook, including the option to run. The Colts wouldn't have had those options.
Posted on 11/16/09 at 7:22 pm to lsumatt
quote:
lsumatt
I'm disappointed to see you take this side of things. As the premier numbers cruncher on this board, I figured you'd see the numbers and agree with Belichick.
quote:
Teams historically take more than 2:00 to get a TD in that situation. Those teams historically have the full playbook, including the option to run. The Colts wouldn't have had those options.
The Colts have Peyton Manning, who already had 2 TD drives in the last few minutes. Are you telling me you've never seen Peyton Manning execute a 2 minute drill? I specifically recall one fine Manning comeback vs. the New England Patriots in the 2006 AFC Championship game.
Posted on 11/16/09 at 7:27 pm to Choupique19
I saw peyton turn the ball
over twice in the second half of that game
over twice in the second half of that game
Posted on 11/16/09 at 7:45 pm to Powerman
(no message)
This post was edited on 11/17/09 at 5:30 pm
Posted on 11/16/09 at 8:03 pm to KBeezy
quote:
I saw peyton turn the ball
over twice in the second half of that game
Well obviously, the odds were wayyyy against Peyton turning it over 3 times.
Posted on 11/16/09 at 8:12 pm to Choupique19
I'm ok with him going for it, but after Wayne catches first down at the 10 and ddia runs to the two you have concede the touchdown. Now you have the ball with 1:38 left needing only a field goal with T.Brady and R.Moss
I'm no Math wiz but I do know odds are better for Brady to get in Field Goal position with 1:38 left than to stop P. Manning from the two
I'm no Math wiz but I do know odds are better for Brady to get in Field Goal position with 1:38 left than to stop P. Manning from the two
Posted on 11/16/09 at 10:03 pm to Choupique19
Sportscenter's #s are inaccurate, but Belichick was correct in going for it
Posted on 11/16/09 at 10:08 pm to lsumatt
all that formula is is garbage in garbage out.
Posted on 11/16/09 at 10:11 pm to bbap
numbers don't lie, bnap
Posted on 11/16/09 at 10:17 pm to Trender
the numbers arent based off anything relevant.
if you honestly think going for it on you're own 28 is the right call there isnt much i can do for you.
if you honestly think going for it on you're own 28 is the right call there isnt much i can do for you.
This post was edited on 11/16/09 at 10:19 pm
Posted on 11/16/09 at 10:37 pm to bbap
you don't have to do anything for me. i've successfully used statistical analysis to my favor over the last few years.
the stats are relevant if you're reading the correct analysis. i wouldn't trust anything on espn. check out bill burke at ny times.
the stats are relevant if you're reading the correct analysis. i wouldn't trust anything on espn. check out bill burke at ny times.
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