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re: The Unofficial 2018 US Open Thread
Posted on 9/4/18 at 2:19 am to bayoucracka
Posted on 9/4/18 at 2:19 am to bayoucracka
Federer Press Conference
He implicitly acknowledges that he was pseudo-tanking after he lost the second set. "Maybe if I won the second set I could have found a way".
I won't shite on him for the humidity excuse.
He implicitly acknowledges that he was pseudo-tanking after he lost the second set. "Maybe if I won the second set I could have found a way".
I won't shite on him for the humidity excuse.
1
Posted on 9/4/18 at 2:20 am to MidnightVibe
Tennys and Austin Krajicek are in the doubles quarters against Kubot and Melo. They play at 3:30.
Posted on 9/4/18 at 2:23 am to MidnightVibe
Who does everyone think is the favorite now?
I said it was Rafa after his second round match, but I don't know that he is anymore. I may have been in denial, but I think it just might be Djokovic. Del Potro looks good as well. I think he'll get by Isner, and would be a tough match for Nadal if Nadal can get by Thiem. I do think Rafa gets by Thiem, but I'm not certain enough yet to throw down on it. Anybody wanna talk me into it?
I said it was Rafa after his second round match, but I don't know that he is anymore. I may have been in denial, but I think it just might be Djokovic. Del Potro looks good as well. I think he'll get by Isner, and would be a tough match for Nadal if Nadal can get by Thiem. I do think Rafa gets by Thiem, but I'm not certain enough yet to throw down on it. Anybody wanna talk me into it?
Posted on 9/4/18 at 2:43 am to MidnightVibe
Novak is now the betting favorite since his biggest obstacle to reaching the final has been removed. The only difference I would have here, assuming I was a bookmaker, would be to have Delpo in the +800 range and Cilic at about +600.
I feel that Cilic is the best value remaining in the tournament. Yes, he will have to go through Joker and Rafa most likely, but I don't think he's any less likely to do it than Delpo.
Posted on 9/4/18 at 2:45 am to MidnightVibe
quote:
Anybody wanna talk me into it?
I'm about to write up a preview, but not for this reason specifically. At the risk of jinxing (which I don't believe in) my Rafa wager, I think he wins in no more than 4 sets.
This post was edited on 9/4/18 at 2:23 pm
Posted on 9/4/18 at 4:29 am to bayoucracka
Nadal and Thiem have faced each other 10 times. Since every single meeting has been on clay, we can safely throw out H2H. Personally, I think H2H from a strictly wins and losses perspective is the most overrated stat in tennis, and I only use it for fading purposes, but that’s another topic for another time. However, if one were to deduce something from that record, it would be the following:
1. In their 3 RG meetings, Rafa is ahead 9-0 in sets and Thiem has never won more than 4 games in a set. The bigger stage matters.
2. In at least one of Thiem’s 3 wins, I remember Rafa had just won 2 or 3 clay tourneys in a row and was running on fumes.
#2 speaks to the fatal flaw in H2H in general. There are just too many factors in tennis that affect the results, and over time we lose track of which ones were the main factors.
This brings us to the next most overrated factor in analyzing a match: the most recent results. For some reason we (myself included) have a tendency to put too much stock into what we’ve just seen from a player. It’s pretty incredible how often we say, “Man, this guy is on fire”, he proceeds to get rolled in his next match, then next week we do the same thing again with a different player as if it never happened. Maybe part of it is just naturally wanting players to play at their best all the time. I don’t know. I can’t explain the psychology behind it.
You can see where I’m going with this. I’m already starting to feel the general public thinking Thiem pulls off the upset. He did destroy Anderson. No doubt about it. I didn’t see the match, but the stats tell me that. We don’t know for sure that the 10 sets Anderson played in his previous 2 matches were a factor, and it’s not a huge deal either way, but I would assume that he wasn’t playing his absolute best.
Thiem mentioned in his press conference that the large court allowed him to stand back by the wall and neutralize Anderson’s serve. Again, the stats prove that. Well, when you take away Anderson’s big edge on serve, there’s not a lot left in his game. And Kevin showed in last year’s final vs. Rafa that he doesn’t have an answer for that style of play.
If you dig a little deeper and look at Thiem’s matches before Anderson, he starts to look a little more like the Thiem you would expect on hard courts. We can throw out the 1st-round win over Mirza Basic. I know Steve Johnson is a tough out, but that was a 5-setter where Thiem had only won 4 more points than Stevie through 4 sets. And he beat Fritz in 4, but a closer look shows that only 1 break separated them, and Thiem only won 2 more points in the match.
On the flip side, everything I hear and read is negative about Rafa. His knee is wrapped, he looks slow, his serve is terrible, he’s barely beating these no-names, etc. Yes, his serve has looked a little weaker than usual. I have no idea why. But, he’s never been the type of player who needs a great serving day to win matches. Any free points he can get are just gravy. And I’m not really concerned about the knee. Even if it is an issue, I’m sure pain meds can get him through matches.
If you want to bash his draw, that’s up to you. Not that it means anything, but I would argue that Novak has had, and will have, an easier draw. I watched a decent amount of both the Basilashvili and Khachanov matches, and I can safely say that those guys were truly playing out of their minds. As in, they would have beaten almost everyone on those days. In my opinion, Khachanov outplayed Rafa and should have won the match, but as usual, he was terrible in all of the big moments.
People choose to see that as a cause for concern. Not me. If Rafa can have an off day, and still beat a guy who was redlining for an entire match, that’s a great sign in my book. What that tells me is that Thiem will have to play at a very high level for a long time, and hope Rafa isn’t playing his best, and even then there’s no guarantee that Thiem will win. I sure don’t want to be on that side.
In conclusion, if you had asked me a week ago who would win between Rafa and Thiem, I would have said Rafa without hesitation. There are circumstances where my opinion could change in a week, but this is definitely not one of them. Sometimes you can catch Rafa at about 90% intensity and steal a set. In my opinion, that only seems to happen with “lesser” opponents. When a match is hyped like this, he will bring it from the start and never let up. And you don’t want to face Rafa in this mode.
Disclaimer: As mentioned, I have bets on Rafa to win the tourney, and also the quarter. My opinion could be influenced by that. As such, I won’t be touching this match. But, if I were, I’d probably go with about a 2/3 stake on Rafa -1.5 sets (-185) and 1/3 on a 3-0 win (+160).
1. In their 3 RG meetings, Rafa is ahead 9-0 in sets and Thiem has never won more than 4 games in a set. The bigger stage matters.
2. In at least one of Thiem’s 3 wins, I remember Rafa had just won 2 or 3 clay tourneys in a row and was running on fumes.
#2 speaks to the fatal flaw in H2H in general. There are just too many factors in tennis that affect the results, and over time we lose track of which ones were the main factors.
This brings us to the next most overrated factor in analyzing a match: the most recent results. For some reason we (myself included) have a tendency to put too much stock into what we’ve just seen from a player. It’s pretty incredible how often we say, “Man, this guy is on fire”, he proceeds to get rolled in his next match, then next week we do the same thing again with a different player as if it never happened. Maybe part of it is just naturally wanting players to play at their best all the time. I don’t know. I can’t explain the psychology behind it.
You can see where I’m going with this. I’m already starting to feel the general public thinking Thiem pulls off the upset. He did destroy Anderson. No doubt about it. I didn’t see the match, but the stats tell me that. We don’t know for sure that the 10 sets Anderson played in his previous 2 matches were a factor, and it’s not a huge deal either way, but I would assume that he wasn’t playing his absolute best.
Thiem mentioned in his press conference that the large court allowed him to stand back by the wall and neutralize Anderson’s serve. Again, the stats prove that. Well, when you take away Anderson’s big edge on serve, there’s not a lot left in his game. And Kevin showed in last year’s final vs. Rafa that he doesn’t have an answer for that style of play.
If you dig a little deeper and look at Thiem’s matches before Anderson, he starts to look a little more like the Thiem you would expect on hard courts. We can throw out the 1st-round win over Mirza Basic. I know Steve Johnson is a tough out, but that was a 5-setter where Thiem had only won 4 more points than Stevie through 4 sets. And he beat Fritz in 4, but a closer look shows that only 1 break separated them, and Thiem only won 2 more points in the match.
On the flip side, everything I hear and read is negative about Rafa. His knee is wrapped, he looks slow, his serve is terrible, he’s barely beating these no-names, etc. Yes, his serve has looked a little weaker than usual. I have no idea why. But, he’s never been the type of player who needs a great serving day to win matches. Any free points he can get are just gravy. And I’m not really concerned about the knee. Even if it is an issue, I’m sure pain meds can get him through matches.
If you want to bash his draw, that’s up to you. Not that it means anything, but I would argue that Novak has had, and will have, an easier draw. I watched a decent amount of both the Basilashvili and Khachanov matches, and I can safely say that those guys were truly playing out of their minds. As in, they would have beaten almost everyone on those days. In my opinion, Khachanov outplayed Rafa and should have won the match, but as usual, he was terrible in all of the big moments.
People choose to see that as a cause for concern. Not me. If Rafa can have an off day, and still beat a guy who was redlining for an entire match, that’s a great sign in my book. What that tells me is that Thiem will have to play at a very high level for a long time, and hope Rafa isn’t playing his best, and even then there’s no guarantee that Thiem will win. I sure don’t want to be on that side.
In conclusion, if you had asked me a week ago who would win between Rafa and Thiem, I would have said Rafa without hesitation. There are circumstances where my opinion could change in a week, but this is definitely not one of them. Sometimes you can catch Rafa at about 90% intensity and steal a set. In my opinion, that only seems to happen with “lesser” opponents. When a match is hyped like this, he will bring it from the start and never let up. And you don’t want to face Rafa in this mode.
Disclaimer: As mentioned, I have bets on Rafa to win the tourney, and also the quarter. My opinion could be influenced by that. As such, I won’t be touching this match. But, if I were, I’d probably go with about a 2/3 stake on Rafa -1.5 sets (-185) and 1/3 on a 3-0 win (+160).
Posted on 9/4/18 at 4:32 am to bayoucracka
I think novak, but I like Novak too. So, I am a bit biased. Like rafa too, so either one, but Novak seems to be playing better tennis.
This post was edited on 9/4/18 at 4:34 am
Posted on 9/4/18 at 7:10 am to rockchlkjayhku11
quote:That's great
“IVe got the second pick, I don’t know if I should go with gurley or leveon bell”
Posted on 9/4/18 at 7:41 am to bayoucracka
There is zero circulation in there, even with the roof open. My group was all talking about how it felt stale even at night with moderate temperatures.
This post was edited on 9/4/18 at 8:04 am
Posted on 9/4/18 at 10:40 am to Bunk Moreland
quote:
There is zero circulation in there, even with the roof open. My group was all talking about how it felt stale even at night with moderate temperatures.
Geez, after being in Jerryworld yesterday with perfect climate control, this seems like an area that got neglected in the design of the roof.
Posted on 9/4/18 at 12:42 pm to Kingpenm3
Sloane is out. Delpo/Isner up now.
Posted on 9/4/18 at 2:02 pm to Bunk Moreland
LFG JOHN!!!
Posted on 9/4/18 at 2:03 pm to rockchlkjayhku11
Posted on 9/4/18 at 2:25 pm to Bunk Moreland
So, as a Fed fan, would you prefer him to go out on top, or would you like to see some type of farewell tour?
For the record, I don't think he's DONE done. I mean, if he doesn't serve at 49% last night, he wins 3-0 or 3-1 and we're not having this conversation. Plus the conditions really did seem to affect him.
For the record, I don't think he's DONE done. I mean, if he doesn't serve at 49% last night, he wins 3-0 or 3-1 and we're not having this conversation. Plus the conditions really did seem to affect him.
Posted on 9/4/18 at 2:32 pm to bayoucracka
I'd like one farewell tour. I think he hangs on through 2020 to give Olympics a shot. He's still a threat at Wimbledon for a couple of years, no matter what.
Posted on 9/4/18 at 2:45 pm to Bunk Moreland
Delpo takes the second.
Posted on 9/4/18 at 2:51 pm to Bunk Moreland
I really want to see him play a French with no expectations just for the fans. If he loses to some clay grinder in the 2nd round, so be it.
Posted on 9/4/18 at 2:57 pm to MidnightVibe
Hope that Serena gets beat like a drum
Posted on 9/4/18 at 2:59 pm to SirWinston
quote:why tho?
Hope that Serena gets beat like a drum
#AmericaFirst
Posted on 9/4/18 at 3:21 pm to SirWinston
Agreed. I was hoping Sloane would do it but that didn’t work out
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