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re: Week 2 college football bet thread
Posted on 9/5/17 at 3:05 pm to gatorhata9
Posted on 9/5/17 at 3:05 pm to gatorhata9
i think people should not focus on even action and focus on expected value(ev) is the reason books win.
Let's assume each outcome is 50/50. So you're expected to win 1 out of every two games on average. If you lay 110 to win 100, the books win $5 or 5% each bet regardless. So you bet 2 games, you go 1-1, you lose $10/2 game =$5 per game.
So if books get 700 on team A, 300 on team B, the EV is still the same. Now, the books prefer team B to win, but over the long term the books will win their EV. It's built in the math.
So sharps look for games that are not 50/50 to get an edge on the books. That's how they get ahead. If they think a game is 60/40 the sharps have an EV on the books.
Let's assume each outcome is 50/50. So you're expected to win 1 out of every two games on average. If you lay 110 to win 100, the books win $5 or 5% each bet regardless. So you bet 2 games, you go 1-1, you lose $10/2 game =$5 per game.
So if books get 700 on team A, 300 on team B, the EV is still the same. Now, the books prefer team B to win, but over the long term the books will win their EV. It's built in the math.
So sharps look for games that are not 50/50 to get an edge on the books. That's how they get ahead. If they think a game is 60/40 the sharps have an EV on the books.
0
Posted on 9/5/17 at 3:08 pm to goldennugget
quote:
goldennugget
but how do you feel about arkansas as a home underdog?
Posted on 9/5/17 at 3:09 pm to josh336
Anyone know what happened to ChemEintheOP?
Was a staple in these threads. Hasn't posted in quite some time
Was a staple in these threads. Hasn't posted in quite some time
Posted on 9/5/17 at 3:09 pm to goldennugget
Through Week 1: 6-3 (+6 units)
Missouri is the play of the week right now, imo. Here's what I got locked in early:
Penn State (-21) 2 units
Michigan State (-7) 2 units
Louisville (-9.5) 2 units
Utah (-1.5) 2 units
Missouri (-2.5) 7 units
UCLA (-23.5) 3 units
Oregon (-14) 2 units
Arkansas (+3.5) 2 units
Navy (-14) 3 units
Franklin will run it up any time he can and this week they will be able to.
Same thing for Bobby P tho they have disappointed in early games like this recently; wish I would have gotten the -5 early.
Arky pick is a homer pick and Navy has been gold the past couple years early in the season.
Theme of Week 2 for me is style points.
Missouri is the play of the week right now, imo. Here's what I got locked in early:
Penn State (-21) 2 units
Michigan State (-7) 2 units
Louisville (-9.5) 2 units
Utah (-1.5) 2 units
Missouri (-2.5) 7 units
UCLA (-23.5) 3 units
Oregon (-14) 2 units
Arkansas (+3.5) 2 units
Navy (-14) 3 units
Franklin will run it up any time he can and this week they will be able to.
Same thing for Bobby P tho they have disappointed in early games like this recently; wish I would have gotten the -5 early.
Arky pick is a homer pick and Navy has been gold the past couple years early in the season.
Theme of Week 2 for me is style points.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 4:21 pm to Pocket Kingz
Middle Tenn @ Syracuse O/U is 73
highest total this weekend. i like the under just on how far outside the mean this game falls. anyone know why so high?
highest total this weekend. i like the under just on how far outside the mean this game falls. anyone know why so high?
This post was edited on 9/5/17 at 4:23 pm
Posted on 9/5/17 at 5:43 pm to Winston Cup
If Miami is as advertised shouldn't they cover 14 easily
Posted on 9/5/17 at 5:53 pm to engvol
quote:
If Miami is as advertised shouldn't they cover 14 easily
If anyone feels they know the U at all feel free to comment. I was wandering the same. Feels like a sucker line right at 15.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 5:57 pm to engvol
home underdog/public fade
do you even follow tScript?
do you even follow tScript?
Posted on 9/5/17 at 6:20 pm to D011ahbi11
No idea, yeah he was in all of these threads the last couple years.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 6:24 pm to Winston Cup
quote:
but how do you feel about arkansas as a home underdog?
Line should be TCU -6.5
No idea why it is -3 and opened at Arky -2 because the preseason GOTY line was TCU -6 and there is no reason it should have moved from that.
I dont bet TCU though.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 6:25 pm to engvol
quote:
If Miami is as advertised shouldn't they cover 14 easily
They looked like dogshit against Bethune-Cookman. I know because I bet on Miami and they came no where close to covering. Offense had hard time moving the ball. Defense also let Cookman drive a few times. Arkansas State looked great on offense vs. Nebraska
Posted on 9/5/17 at 6:46 pm to Pocket Kingz
quote:
Through Week 1: 6-3 (+6 units)
Penn State (-21) 2 units
Michigan State (-7) 2 units
Louisville (-9.5) 2 units
Utah (-1.5) 2 units
Missouri (-2.5) 7 units
UCLA (-23.5) 3 units
Oregon (-14) 2 units
Arkansas (+3.5) 2 units
Navy (-14) 3 units
just added Arky State (+15) 7 units.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 7:06 pm to D011ahbi11
quote:
Anyone know what happened to ChemEintheOP?
Was a staple in these threads. Hasn't posted in quite some tim
I know he put a lot of money on Hillary to win the election as well as her in individual states
Posted on 9/5/17 at 7:08 pm to Pocket Kingz
quote:not the pick I would make. They gave up 40+ to Missouri State.
Missouri (-2.5) 7 units
Posted on 9/5/17 at 7:15 pm to goldennugget
quote:
I know he put a lot of money on Hillary to win the election as well as her in individual states
Lololololololololol
Just wow! So he went against his own and advice and played the public favorite?
Lololololololololol
Posted on 9/5/17 at 7:26 pm to Rouge
Im betting on Drew Lock and the Mizz rbs at home over the South Carolina defense.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 7:36 pm to goldennugget
quote:
know he put a lot of money on Hillary to win the election as well as her in individual states
Posted on 9/5/17 at 7:42 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
quote:
You're better than this.
What?
quote:
seems to be a disagreement among the betting market about the drop in value for Georgia between quarterback Jacob Eason, who is out with a sprained ligament in his left knee, and freshman Jake Fromm, who’ll be starting for the Bulldogs on Saturday. On Tuesday, the spread of UGA’s game at South Bend ranged from Notre Dame -4.5 to -6.5.
CG opened ND -6.5, but brought the line down to -5 in one flash Tuesday, and Simbal acknowledged his shop made an initial over-adjustment to the Georgia quarterback switch.
Salmons is bullish on both clubs this season, but doesn’t know what to expect from the freshman.
“It’s a game I’m interested in watching but have zero interest in wagering on because Georgia’s got a new quarterback and I could make a case for each team,” Salmons said. “I can’t even attempt to handicap this game.”
Posted on 9/6/17 at 9:54 am to SDVTiger
Posted on 9/6/17 at 11:04 am to josh336
Corso to pick OU is +1300 right now... tempting.
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