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re: Your Bold NCAA Predictions And Final Four
Posted on 3/19/14 at 1:42 pm to footballtimeintn
Posted on 3/19/14 at 1:42 pm to footballtimeintn
If Tennessee wins tonight I have them beating duke and getting to the sweet 16.
New Mexico making it to the Elite 8 losing to Florida
Final 4:
Florida, Michigan St, Arizona, and Louisville
New Mexico making it to the Elite 8 losing to Florida
Final 4:
Florida, Michigan St, Arizona, and Louisville
1
Posted on 3/19/14 at 1:46 pm to Baloo
quote:
If this tourney is truly wide open, picking the favorite makes little sense.
Posted on 3/19/14 at 1:58 pm to goldenbadger08
Sure, but your chart doesn't really rebut my assertion. The pythag of the top 13 will always trend that way. I'm not advocating picking a 13 seed to win the tournament. I'm advocating picking a 1 or a 2 that isn't as popular as the other 1's and 2's.
A top 3 seed, essentially a top ten team, has won the tournament every year for 25 years except 1997, when a 4-seed won it. You should always pick a top 3 seed to win it (unless you feel real strong about a 4 -- and you can argue L'ville and MSU are underseeded). The key is not picking the 1-seed everyone else is. Otherwise, you need to get more of your bracket right, because other people have picked the same thing as you in the high point games.
ETA: Let me give you the example, using Florida and Kansas. Looking at ESPN bracket picks, 61.6% of the public is picking UF to win the East. You can assume your bracket will be somewhere in that ballpark. Now, from a an arbitrage standpoint, it only makes sense to pick UF if they have a 60% chance of winning. Even if you're right, you're scoring the same as everyone in your pool. ESPN's computer picks UF's odds to be 36.3%. So there's a 1 in 3 chance UF wins the East, roughly, but nearly 2/3 of people are picking it. So by picking against the crowd, I'm more likely to pick up a ton of points if I'm right (and KU is at 17% picked and 15.4% in the computer, roughly even). If I get Kansas right in my pool, I'm picking up 16 points and more importantly, it's 16 points 2/3 of my pool ARE NOT GETTING. Now, if Florida wins, I lose. But if I pick Florida and they do win, I still need a whole lot of other stuff to happen to win because just about everyone is getting those points.
A top 3 seed, essentially a top ten team, has won the tournament every year for 25 years except 1997, when a 4-seed won it. You should always pick a top 3 seed to win it (unless you feel real strong about a 4 -- and you can argue L'ville and MSU are underseeded). The key is not picking the 1-seed everyone else is. Otherwise, you need to get more of your bracket right, because other people have picked the same thing as you in the high point games.
ETA: Let me give you the example, using Florida and Kansas. Looking at ESPN bracket picks, 61.6% of the public is picking UF to win the East. You can assume your bracket will be somewhere in that ballpark. Now, from a an arbitrage standpoint, it only makes sense to pick UF if they have a 60% chance of winning. Even if you're right, you're scoring the same as everyone in your pool. ESPN's computer picks UF's odds to be 36.3%. So there's a 1 in 3 chance UF wins the East, roughly, but nearly 2/3 of people are picking it. So by picking against the crowd, I'm more likely to pick up a ton of points if I'm right (and KU is at 17% picked and 15.4% in the computer, roughly even). If I get Kansas right in my pool, I'm picking up 16 points and more importantly, it's 16 points 2/3 of my pool ARE NOT GETTING. Now, if Florida wins, I lose. But if I pick Florida and they do win, I still need a whole lot of other stuff to happen to win because just about everyone is getting those points.
This post was edited on 3/19/14 at 2:11 pm
Posted on 3/19/14 at 2:19 pm to Baloo
I just flat out think Florida is the best overall team in the tournament, and having been to 3 straight Elite Eights, they will finally break through and win the whole thing.
fwiw, if Kansas wasn't in UF's bracket, I would've had UF vs. Kansas in the Final.
fwiw, if Kansas wasn't in UF's bracket, I would've had UF vs. Kansas in the Final.
Posted on 3/19/14 at 2:27 pm to dawgfan24348
Kansas v. Michigan State
Duke v. Arizona
MSU v. Duke
Duke
Duke v. Arizona
MSU v. Duke
Duke
Posted on 3/19/14 at 2:44 pm to boXerrumble
quote:
I just flat out think Florida is the best overall team in the tournament, and having been to 3 straight Elite Eights, they will finally break through and win the whole thing.
And if I felt that way, I'd pick 'em. But I don't. I feel the top ten is all essentially even this year, and any of 'em can win. So I'll pick against the crowd and play the odds, knowing that I won't get the first round right. I just don't have the same faith in Florida that you do. I don't feel they are an overwhelming favorite.
Posted on 3/19/14 at 3:08 pm to Baloo
quote:
I don't feel they are an overwhelming favorite.
Overwhelming favorite? No. But I trust them the most, especially in close games.
They have to be up there as one of the top 3 teams this year in closing games out.
I mean UF is 7 points away from being undefeated this year.
Posted on 3/19/14 at 3:18 pm to boXerrumble
quote:
Overwhelming favorite? No. But I trust them the most, especially in close games.
They have to be up there as one of the top 3 teams this year in closing games out.
I mean UF is 7 points away from being undefeated this year.
And 6 points from being a 28-6 5-seed.
Posted on 3/19/14 at 3:20 pm to Baloo
quote:
Baloo
I get where you're coming from now.
I was looking at it in a way that would help me get every pick right rather than in a way to win a pool.
Posted on 3/19/14 at 3:24 pm to goldenbadger08
Yeah, you're not going to get everything right. It's impossible. I'm playing blackjack essentially. Forget about getting 21. Beat the dealer.
Posted on 3/19/14 at 3:33 pm to dawgfan24348
Creighton, UVA, Wichita State, FL. Shockers shock the world and beat the Gators 74-70 in the finals.
Bold prediction: All the 12 seeds beat all the 5 seeds. My bracket depends on it
Bold prediction: All the 12 seeds beat all the 5 seeds. My bracket depends on it
Posted on 3/19/14 at 3:55 pm to Jim Rockford
The 5 seeds are pretty weak this year..
Posted on 3/19/14 at 4:06 pm to Sader1990
Anyone think Oregon can beat Wisky in round 2?
Posted on 3/19/14 at 4:07 pm to kidbourbon
quote:
And 6 points from being a 28-6 5-seed.
And last year they were 0-6 in close games.
Whats your point? With their entire team available, they are undefeated this year.
Posted on 3/19/14 at 4:26 pm to boXerrumble
Though not world-beaters from the charity stripe, I think Dayton's depth and "little guy" mentality in the state of Ohio will propel them past Ohio State. Still not sure how I feel about them against Syracuse, assuming they get by W. Michigan.
Posted on 3/19/14 at 4:28 pm to dawgfan24348
Harvard beating Cincinnati is not bold when everyone is using it as their bold prediction.
Posted on 3/19/14 at 4:45 pm to Sevendust912
quote:
Anyone think Oregon can beat Wisky in round 2?
I have Oregon going to the elite 8 not sold on this Wisconsin now has offense.
Posted on 3/19/14 at 5:10 pm to dawgfan24348
1. Florida
3. Michigan St
1. Arizona
4. Louisville
Do they reseed the final 4????
3. Michigan St
1. Arizona
4. Louisville
Do they reseed the final 4????
Posted on 3/19/14 at 5:11 pm to REG861
quote:
Harvard beating Cincinnati is not bold when everyone is using it as their bold prediction.
Over 40% chance Harvard wins so you are right
Posted on 3/19/14 at 5:13 pm to goldenbadger08
What does that chart mean?
I seriously have no clue?
I seriously have no clue?
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