Domain: tiger-web1.srvr.media3.us 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread | Page 15 | O-T Lounge
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re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread

Posted on 7/4/14 at 8:23 am to
Posted by LSUJuice
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
18024 posts
Posted on 7/4/14 at 8:23 am to
You still with us forever?

And if so, pics please
This post was edited on 7/4/14 at 8:26 am
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21232 posts
Posted on 7/4/14 at 9:51 am to
Picture of Arthur yesterday from the ISS

Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21232 posts
Posted on 7/4/14 at 10:13 am to
quote:

interesting fact.. the last time we had a cat 2 or higher make landfall in the US was 2008..


And the major streak lives on with 2005 Wilma still being the last one. It has been a pretty crazy run and that is just going to make the hype that much more unbearable when finally does happen.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21232 posts
Posted on 7/4/14 at 10:33 am to
quote:

Man if this had been just 50-100 miles east it could've strengthened to cat 3..


Yeah, that would've kept it over the Gulf stream and given it a bit more time before being negatively impacted by the trough. This is what some of the Euro runs were showing.

Given the small size of the storm, if the shear vector would have been different on Wednesday then I think we would have seen a period of RI. The models still struggle with pinpointing shear and don't have the resolution to handle the convective processes of the core that work to mix out or ingest dry air. That is why the NHC conservative approach works most of the time, esp. over the past few seasons when everything has struggled. However, that technique obviously had them playing catch up with Amanda and Cristina in the EPAC earlier this season. But it's not like anyone can really accurately predict 75 mph - 155 mph in less than 24 hrs
Posted by foreverLSU
Member since Mar 2006
17077 posts
Posted on 7/4/14 at 11:08 am to
I'm here. Woke up at 2:30, back to sleep around 6:30, woke up about an hour ago. Sat in the living room through the heaviest parts of the storm but it was pitch black out so we couldn't really see much.

How the heck do you post pics to TD from an iPad?
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21232 posts
Posted on 7/4/14 at 11:12 am to
quote:

Plus the fact Arthur just formed into a tropical depression and was first noted by the NHC just 3 days ago.


It did sneak up on everyone but there is just no way to predict systems like this with any lead time or accuracy because of the way it spun up. It originated from a complex of storms that rolled on shore in SW Louisiana. Then rotated around the ridge to where if finally formed a TD. I think the NHC first noted it with a 0% of development when it was over Georgia.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21232 posts
Posted on 7/4/14 at 11:14 am to
quote:

I'm here


Looks like skies should be clearing out there pretty quickly. I'm guessing the beaches will be less crowded than normal for the 4th
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21232 posts
Posted on 7/4/14 at 3:10 pm to
This won't directly impact the US but it is forecast to be such a large super typhoon that it will alter the downstream weather pattern for sure.

Euro is taking it down below 900 mb!



Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36491 posts
Posted on 7/4/14 at 3:24 pm to
quote:

Euro is taking it down below 900 mb!


O_O

Looks like it has plenty of inflow to fuel it from the south and west at the moment.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21232 posts
Posted on 7/4/14 at 4:14 pm to
quote:

Looks like it has plenty of inflow to fuel it from the south and west at the moment.


And the west Pacific warm pool is basically a powder keg right now.

This post was edited on 8/8/14 at 9:30 pm
Posted by LSUzealot
Napoleon and Magazine
Member since Sep 2003
57656 posts
Posted on 7/4/14 at 11:11 pm to
bump….this thing hit the coast as a Cat 2….the streak is over.
surprised it's getting no page hits on TD….this would be a 10,000 page thread if it were to hit the Gulf Coast as a cat 2.
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42051 posts
Posted on 7/4/14 at 11:11 pm to
quote:

surprised it's getting no page hits on TD….this would be a 10,000 page thread if it were to hit the Gulf Coast as a cat 2.



meh, no one cares about the east coast.. thats why we didn't make a separate thread for it
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
66950 posts
Posted on 7/5/14 at 1:08 am to
quote:

meh, no one cares about the east coast.

Hey!
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42051 posts
Posted on 7/5/14 at 1:11 am to
No offense! I'm just saying its primarily gulf coasters here
Posted by lsuwontonwrap
Member since Aug 2012
34147 posts
Posted on 7/5/14 at 1:14 am to
Is the the thread where all of the weather nerds are beating off?
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21232 posts
Posted on 7/5/14 at 5:35 pm to
Removed updating image and moved to next page.


This post was edited on 7/6/14 at 10:34 am
Posted by 4LSU2
Member since Dec 2009
37985 posts
Posted on 7/5/14 at 5:50 pm to
Where is that taking place? Is that Arthur?
Posted by MusicMaster
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2012
1362 posts
Posted on 7/5/14 at 5:55 pm to
quote:

No offense! I'm just saying its primarily gulf coasters here


But, Diane Deaton from WAFB had about three mins to do the weather yesterday morning and spent most of that time talking about a storm that wouldn't get close to hitting us. Shame.
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42051 posts
Posted on 7/5/14 at 6:07 pm to
quote:

Where is that taking place? Is that Arthur?



I believe thats Typhoon Neoguri in the West Pacific..
This post was edited on 7/5/14 at 6:08 pm
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21232 posts
Posted on 7/5/14 at 7:20 pm to
quote:

quote:
Where is that taking place? Is that Arthur?


I believe thats Typhoon Neoguri in the West Pacific..


Yes, my bad. I thought I put a something with that gif saying that. Obviously no real threat to the US but super typhoons are pretty wicked.
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