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Started By
Message
re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread
Posted on 8/12/14 at 10:24 pm to rds dc
Posted on 8/12/14 at 10:24 pm to rds dc
quote:
NHC has been slowly backing down from that odd 40% 5 day
And all the way down to nothing
The MJO is forecasted to stay weak for the time being so other features are playing more of a role in the tropics. A KW appears to be the main player across the Atlantic at this time.
The suppressed phase helped kill off 94L, then did the same to the next wave off of Africa, and will probably do the same to the next in line (convection over SW Mali).
There is always a chance for a surprise system to spin up closer in but things look kind of boring for the near future. The GEFS is still calling for an abnormally dry MDR over the next couple of weeks and the CFSv2 is indicating the same for September. The long range Euro EPS was showing a flip to lower pressures across the MDR in the longer range but has started trending towards normal to slightly higher pressures. The Euro weeklies do indicate that the western Caribbean/eastern Gulf might be an area to watch as we head into the peak of the season...
This post was edited on 8/12/14 at 11:12 pm
1
Posted on 8/15/14 at 10:45 pm to rds dc
95L has been invested off the coast of Africa.
The models don't do much with it but the immediate environment doesn't look too bad with pretty low shear. However, the atmosphere over all is stable and suppressed and SSTs are below normal.
Chances for development should improve with the next KW passage. Maybe by the 20th +/- a couple of days. The GFS has kind of been kicking that around but the Euro has been pretty much dead. On a side note, the 15 day Euro EPS has 50 members and it shows basically nothing in the W. Caribbean/Gulf during the next two weeks. Not a single member can gin up a system.
The models don't do much with it but the immediate environment doesn't look too bad with pretty low shear. However, the atmosphere over all is stable and suppressed and SSTs are below normal.
Chances for development should improve with the next KW passage. Maybe by the 20th +/- a couple of days. The GFS has kind of been kicking that around but the Euro has been pretty much dead. On a side note, the 15 day Euro EPS has 50 members and it shows basically nothing in the W. Caribbean/Gulf during the next two weeks. Not a single member can gin up a system.
Posted on 8/16/14 at 9:26 am to rds dc
quote:
95L has been invested off the coast of Africa.
And NHC goes from 50% at 2:00 am to 20% at 8:00 am, they have kind of been thrashing around with the last couple of invest out there. Last night things didn't look half bad with relatively low shear and divergent upper level flow. However, shear increased and the vector changed overnight resulting in almost all the convection being cut off.
On this date back in '69 a monster was entering the Gulf:
This post was edited on 8/16/14 at 10:13 am
Posted on 8/16/14 at 9:50 am to rds dc
95L has no chance ATM
Posted on 8/16/14 at 10:31 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
95L has no chance ATM
Pretty much, we are stuck in a boring pattern right now. I still think we will see conditions improve some what with the passage of this next KW. However, the SST configuration across the Atlantic will tend to favor below normal instability across the MDR. This could actually end up being bad for the Gulf and EC. Anything that does develop will probably stay weak until getting pretty far west. The W. Pacific has really calmed down and that is allowing a more normal summer time pattern to setup over the eastern 2/3s of the US. Throw in some blocking (-NAO) and the mean pattern could favor driving systems (if any form) towards the US.
Posted on 8/17/14 at 9:35 am to rds dc
quote:
Chances for development should improve with the next KW passage. Maybe by the 20th +/- a couple of days.
That timeframe is looking more interesting for development. If something develops, it could have a greater than climo chance of threatening the Gulf or EC.
Posted on 8/19/14 at 1:30 pm to rds dc
96L
This post was edited on 8/19/14 at 1:32 pm
Posted on 8/19/14 at 1:34 pm to rds dc
quote:
96L
Now THIS could pose a problem. Far south enough not to get caught up into the east coast. These are the ones that scare me.
Posted on 8/19/14 at 1:51 pm to dukke v
quote:
These are the ones that scare me.
There is some model support for your concerns.
Obviously that is just one individual model run, so don't put much stock in it, but it certainly represents a realistic possibility at this point. 96L is an area in a timeframe that we have been watching for a possible Gulf threat.
Posted on 8/19/14 at 1:55 pm to rds dc
Fire up the generator. I'm stocking up on water and gas tonight before the rush.
Posted on 8/19/14 at 1:55 pm to rds dc
quote:
but it certainly represents a realistic possibility at this point. 96L is an area in a timeframe that we have been watching for a possible Gulf threat.
If it doesn't get sheered apart its def something to watch. If it goes between Cuba and The Yucitan and a front comes across from the west and picks it up. YIKES........
Posted on 8/19/14 at 2:19 pm to dukke v
I have tickets to the LSU game in Houston do you think I will be ok?
Also I am going to the beach in a month and having concrete poured while I am gone will this affect it or shite down the airport?
Also I am going to the beach in a month and having concrete poured while I am gone will this affect it or shite down the airport?
Posted on 8/19/14 at 2:25 pm to Dizz
Don't forget about your tee time in Destin, brah.
Posted on 8/19/14 at 2:33 pm to Dizz
it wont be into the GOM for another 9-10 days.. thats next Thursday or Friday
If it develops then the LSU/Houston game could be at risk
If it develops then the LSU/Houston game could be at risk
Posted on 8/19/14 at 2:37 pm to LSUJuice
Almost forgot about a BBQ in denham springs next Tuesday and a travel ball tournament at some random shot hole on the gulf coast
Will it all be ok?
Will it all be ok?
Posted on 8/19/14 at 3:00 pm to Dizz
frick. I've got a bunch of friends coming in for Labor Day weekend.
Posted on 8/19/14 at 3:06 pm to Fun Bunch
quote:headed to Katy and Schlitterbahn in New Braunfels that weekend.
frick. I've got a bunch of friends coming in for Labor Day weekend.
Posted on 8/19/14 at 3:43 pm to meauxjeaux2
anyone looking at 96L discussions? could be interesting
Posted on 8/19/14 at 3:46 pm to rds dc
quote:
There is some model support for your concerns.
Landmass in the bullseye. Don't care.
Posted on 8/19/14 at 4:02 pm to BottomlandBrew
I have tickets to LSU/Wisc,
Going to Disney for a conference Sep5-11
Then the Saints home opener on the 21st
In what order if any will these be in danger?
Going to Disney for a conference Sep5-11
Then the Saints home opener on the 21st
In what order if any will these be in danger?
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