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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 8/20/14 at 12:20 am to rds dc
quote:
Looks pretty good to me for initializing a disorganized mess.
After looking at the entire loop, the GFS looks pretty right on to me. It ends up focusing on the northeastern end of that axis of vorticity. That would make sense given the current setup in that area. Also, a weaker system isn't going to feel the trough trapped to its north as much as a stronger system.
It is still too early for the models to resolve that ULL to the NW of the system. The models really struggle with upper level features like that and its evolution can do everything from ventilate the system to shear it out. How the system interacts with the islands will also go a long ways to determining what happens.
One other thing, the dry air to the north could also favor a weaker system that moves more towards the left side of the guidance. That will tend to encourage convection to be more vigorous on the southern portion of the circulation. Dry air has killed most of the waves this year but those have all been in very stable environments. The atmosphere should become more unstable as they system moves west. Dry air is less of a concern in an unstable environment because convection can work to modify the atmosphere. The dry air will still slow development in a more unstable environment but it won't kill convection like it can in a stable environment.
This post was edited on 8/20/14 at 12:22 am
Posted on 8/20/14 at 12:21 am to rds dc
quote:
Looks pretty good for to me for initializing a disorganized mess.
Thats what I meant.. it doesn't have a designated position.. still working on little sleep sry.
Posted on 8/20/14 at 12:24 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Thats what I meant.. it doesn't have a designated position.. still working on little sleep sry.
Cool, people just tend to throw out "poor initialization" a lot and that doesn't happen very often with the new data assimilation schemes that the models use. You will still see a model go off the tracks big time in just 3 or 6 hours but that is another story
Posted on 8/20/14 at 12:26 am to GEAUXmedic
so...is this thing likely to be a hurricane or no? gonna wreck shite or no?
As well, what difference does forming there make from forming off the coast of Africa?
As well, what difference does forming there make from forming off the coast of Africa?
Posted on 8/20/14 at 12:31 am to beaver
quote:
so...is this thing likely to be a hurricane or no?
Who knows but the next few days could have the most favorable conditions so far this season across the Atlantic.
quote:
As well, what difference does forming there make from forming off the coast of Africa?
Usually just Beta Effect unless there is a monster ridge.
Posted on 8/20/14 at 12:35 am to rds dc
quote:
Usually just Beta Effect unless there is a monster ridge.
explain like I'm Kige
Posted on 8/20/14 at 1:06 am to beaver
frick 
Can you amateur Meteorologist and weather geeks tell us layman when we really need to start paying attention to this one?
Can you amateur Meteorologist and weather geeks tell us layman when we really need to start paying attention to this one? Posted on 8/20/14 at 1:14 am to TutHillTiger
damn, well there goes labor day weekend!
Posted on 8/20/14 at 1:15 am to TutHillTiger
Please go towards Texas,
Posted on 8/20/14 at 1:25 am to TutHillTiger
quote:
frick Can you amateur Meteorologist and weather geeks tell us layman when we really need to start paying attention to this one?
When I make a specific thread for it, you can pay attention.
Posted on 8/20/14 at 1:35 am to GEAUXmedic
shite. My GF has what I guess you would call unresolved PTSD from Katrina. A lot my week will be spent trying to keep her somewhat calm.
Posted on 8/20/14 at 1:36 am to Jim Rockford
Is it too early to start a "Where can I buy a generator?" thread?
Posted on 8/20/14 at 1:39 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
shite. My GF has what I guess you would call unresolved PTSD from Katrina. A lot my week will be spent trying to keep her somewhat calm.
It's a long ways away. We can say what we think it'll do, but there's no way in hell right now to know what it'll do.
Posted on 8/20/14 at 5:27 am to GEAUXmedic
What we got goin on this morning?
Posted on 8/20/14 at 5:33 am to Jim Rockford
Jim, what happened to her?
Posted on 8/20/14 at 5:36 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:. Time will tell how good you are. Until then I am listening to Baytiger, and Rummy in that order.
When I make a specific thread for it, you can pay attention.
Posted on 8/20/14 at 5:46 am to Ponchy Tiger
quote:
. Time will tell how good you are. Until then I am listening to Baytiger, and Rummy in that order.
Hey, listen to who you want to, I'm just another guy.. I meant whenever anyone makes a thread on it.
Posted on 8/20/14 at 5:47 am to LSURoss
quote:
What we got goin on this morning?
Overnight model rundown:
00Z GFS- Landfall as a TS/Cat 1 at the LA/TX Border
06Z GFS- Landfall on the MS coast as a weak TS
Euro- Landfall around Terrebonne Parish, LA as a TS/Cat 1
It's still way to early to pinpoint anything.
Posted on 8/20/14 at 5:48 am to CCT
quote:
Jim, what happened to her?
A lot of things, but the big thing is she blames the hurricane for the death of her mother. Not right away, but her mom's health started going downhill in the aftermath and she never recovered.
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