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Posted on 8/23/14 at 10:46 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
IMO this ones out to sea
The models tend to agree with you tonight
quote:
that trough is just too strong and TD4 will get picked up easily
Actually the trough leaves TD4 behind and it lingers for a couple of days before the subtropical ridge builds in beneath it and works as a kicker to move it out. The SE ridge is too weak, as modeled, to trap TD4.
TD4 could end up taking a different track, if the SE ridge comes in stronger, the subtropical ridge builds in with a different orientation, or if TD4 stays south.
Posted on 8/23/14 at 11:09 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
maybe RDS can elaborate on what disorganization would mean for it's path
It may not mean anything, ASCAT is pretty crappy and might just be missing the west winds. Even if the center isn't where it was earlier, there are too many moving parts at this time to make any kind of a guess.
Posted on 8/24/14 at 7:34 am to rds dc
Someone bring us some good news on this thing.
Posted on 8/24/14 at 7:41 am to WRedmondsStang
Where is this morning's update? 
Posted on 8/24/14 at 8:06 am to 4LSU2
Posted on 8/24/14 at 8:07 am to Bullfrog
Swing and a miss
This post was edited on 8/24/14 at 8:07 am
Posted on 8/24/14 at 8:08 am to Bama and Beer
Wife just said "That is just so boring!"
Posted on 8/24/14 at 8:09 am to Bullfrog
If all it brought was 4 days of rain, I'd be OK with that
Posted on 8/24/14 at 9:17 am to Bama and Beer
It's not coming this way
Posted on 8/24/14 at 9:40 am to rds dc
quote:
quote:
That was my initial thought, but those more knowledgeable than me are adamant thats where it is
That is certainly where the area of lowest pressure is. However, not a favorable area for strengthening because of Hispaniola and "dry" air coming off the mountains. That gives time for an area farther N or NE to become the dominant LLC today until that southern area gets away from the island.
Yesterday morning the system was an open wave moving along the north coast of Hispaniola. Convection persisted on the NE end of the wave axis and that is where the LLC ended up consolidating yesterday afternoon and overnight. That was a really good development for anyone with interest along the US coastline and could potentially ensure that the system stays offshore.
There is pretty much unanimous model agreement with the NCH forecast track at this time. The only holdout is the Euro EPS that still shows a good bit of uncertainty with about a 1/3 of the members impactIng Florida.
One minute scans are running today and can be found here.
This post was edited on 8/24/14 at 9:44 am
Posted on 8/24/14 at 9:51 am to rds dc
And in the EPAC this morning:
This post was edited on 8/24/14 at 9:53 am
Posted on 8/24/14 at 10:00 am to rds dc
Woah...
Posted on 8/24/14 at 10:06 am to rds dc
Holy crap... Where is that thing heading???
A classic buzzsaw.
A classic buzzsaw.
Posted on 8/24/14 at 10:13 am to dukke v
quote:
Holy crap... Where is that thing heading???
thank god nowhere. it's forecasted to reach cat 5 later on, then back down to cat 2 by the middle of the week. it has gusts up to 185 mph right now.
Posted on 8/24/14 at 10:28 am to GEAUXmedic
Why do the Pacific storms always look so much bigger and more organized?
Posted on 8/24/14 at 10:31 am to Ignignot
El Nino
Posted on 8/24/14 at 10:31 am to Ignignot
I kinda miss having a hurricane party
Its been boring the last couple of years
Its been boring the last couple of years
This post was edited on 8/24/14 at 10:32 am
Posted on 8/24/14 at 10:46 am to Ignignot
quote:
Why do the Pacific storms always look so much bigger and more organized?
It is the WPAC that typically has the really large storms and EPAC storms are typically smaller. I'll keep it simple and won't get into the roles that land masses downstream play and stuff like that, let's just say there is a lot more open warm water in the Pacific.
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