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Started By
Message
re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread
Posted on 8/29/14 at 10:14 am to meauxjeaux2
Posted on 8/29/14 at 10:14 am to meauxjeaux2
Didn't want to start a new thread.. but here:
Moving north:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
LAZ056-059-065>067-291600-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
938 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014
...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH AFFECTING UPPER
TERREBONNE PARISH...ASSUMPTION PARISH...UPPER LAFOURCHE PARISH...
LOWER LAFOURCHE PARISH...LOWER TERREBONNE PARISH...
AT 934 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BURNS POINT TO 16 MILES SOUTH OF HOUMA TO 24 MILES SOUTH
OF GALLIANO...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.
THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
DULAC...LEEVILLE...CHAUVIN...GOLDEN MEADOW...MONTEGUT...GALLIANO...
HOUMA...BAYOU CANE...GRAY...CUT OFF...SCHRIEVER...THIBODAUX...
RACELAND...MATHEWS...LOCKPORT...LAROSE AND LABADIEVILLE
THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND
GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS...AND TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE.
SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.
$$
CAB
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
931 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014
LAZ041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ215-216-292015-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE CHARLES...SULPHUR...JENNINGS...
WELSH...LAKE ARTHUR...CROWLEY...RAYNE...CHURCH POINT...
LAFAYETTE...BREAUX BRIDGE...ST. MARTINVILLE...ABBEVILLE...
KAPLAN...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...FRANKLIN...PATTERSON...
BERWICK...BAYOU VISTA...STEPHENSVILLE...HACKBERRY...HOLLY BEACH...
CAMERON...GRAND CHENIER...BEAUMONT...PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE...
VIDOR...BRIDGE CITY
931 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014
...TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE OVER THE AREA IS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN COOLED
BOUNDARIES...KNOWN AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND THE SEABREEZE
COLLIDE.
THESE TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE USUALLY SHORT-LIVED AND RARELY
REACH THE GROUND. IF THE FUNNEL CLOUD BECOMES MORE SEVERE AND
DOES REACH THE GROUND...MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR.
STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER
SITUATION.
$$
Moving north:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
LAZ056-059-065>067-291600-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
938 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014
...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH AFFECTING UPPER
TERREBONNE PARISH...ASSUMPTION PARISH...UPPER LAFOURCHE PARISH...
LOWER LAFOURCHE PARISH...LOWER TERREBONNE PARISH...
AT 934 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BURNS POINT TO 16 MILES SOUTH OF HOUMA TO 24 MILES SOUTH
OF GALLIANO...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.
THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
DULAC...LEEVILLE...CHAUVIN...GOLDEN MEADOW...MONTEGUT...GALLIANO...
HOUMA...BAYOU CANE...GRAY...CUT OFF...SCHRIEVER...THIBODAUX...
RACELAND...MATHEWS...LOCKPORT...LAROSE AND LABADIEVILLE
THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND
GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS...AND TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE.
SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.
$$
CAB
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
931 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014
LAZ041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ215-216-292015-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE CHARLES...SULPHUR...JENNINGS...
WELSH...LAKE ARTHUR...CROWLEY...RAYNE...CHURCH POINT...
LAFAYETTE...BREAUX BRIDGE...ST. MARTINVILLE...ABBEVILLE...
KAPLAN...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...FRANKLIN...PATTERSON...
BERWICK...BAYOU VISTA...STEPHENSVILLE...HACKBERRY...HOLLY BEACH...
CAMERON...GRAND CHENIER...BEAUMONT...PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE...
VIDOR...BRIDGE CITY
931 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014
...TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE OVER THE AREA IS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN COOLED
BOUNDARIES...KNOWN AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND THE SEABREEZE
COLLIDE.
THESE TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE USUALLY SHORT-LIVED AND RARELY
REACH THE GROUND. IF THE FUNNEL CLOUD BECOMES MORE SEVERE AND
DOES REACH THE GROUND...MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR.
STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER
SITUATION.
$$
2
Posted on 8/29/14 at 10:24 am to GEAUXmedic
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1021 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LAFOURCHE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...GALLIANO...CUT OFF...
EAST CENTRAL TERREBONNE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT
* AT 1020 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEEVILLE...
OR 20 MILES SOUTH OF GALLIANO...AND MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MONTEGUT AND GOLDEN MEADOW
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND
PHOTOS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1021 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LAFOURCHE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...GALLIANO...CUT OFF...
EAST CENTRAL TERREBONNE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT
* AT 1020 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEEVILLE...
OR 20 MILES SOUTH OF GALLIANO...AND MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MONTEGUT AND GOLDEN MEADOW
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND
PHOTOS.
Posted on 8/29/14 at 10:26 am to GEAUXmedic
flying out at 5:50 to houston, guessing this is gonna be a bumpy flight?
Posted on 8/29/14 at 10:30 am to CE Tiger
quote:
flying out at 5:50 to houston, guessing this is gonna be a bumpy flight?
Ehh possibly if your flight isn't delayed/cancelled
Posted on 8/29/14 at 10:44 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Didn't want to start a new thread.. but here:
This is related to that piece of energy that I mentioned a couple of days ago when it was off the coast of Cuba. It is mostly just a surge of moisture at this point but there might be a weak surface low trying to form east of Brownsville.
Posted on 8/29/14 at 10:45 am to rds dc
quote:
This is related to that piece of energy that I mentioned a couple of days ago when it was off the coast of Cuba. It is mostly just a surge of moisture at this point but there might be a weak surface low trying to form east of Brownsville.
yeah thats why I just threw it in here.. the sky is crazy down here right now. 
Posted on 8/29/14 at 10:46 am to rds dc
So this this going to slam the frick out of New Orleans, and when?
Posted on 8/29/14 at 10:54 am to Fun Bunch
quote:
Disturbance 25 is a weak, elongated trough containing enhanced showers and thunderstorms located in the west-central Gulf of Mexico near 26N, 92.5W. Movement is to the north-northwest at 10 mph. This cluster of enhanced thunderstorms is expected to move inland into Texas and Louisiana in about 24 hours. Although we do not expect this to develop into a tropical depression, wind gusts to 50 mph are likely within strong squalls offshore today through early Saturday. Onshore, 1 to 2 inches of rain are likely for many areas on Saturday.
ouch...
This post was edited on 8/29/14 at 10:56 am
Posted on 8/29/14 at 11:07 am to rds dc
Looks like my weekend might be a washout. So much for getting a brew in.
Posted on 8/29/14 at 11:09 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Ehh possibly if your flight isn't delayed/cancelled
is this an actual possibility???
Posted on 8/29/14 at 11:13 am to Fun Bunch
I feel like New Orleans has been missing a lot of nearby storms all year. Our monthly precipitation has to be lower than normal for most months. Would be surprised if this hits us, but I'm not a weatherman.
Posted on 8/29/14 at 11:16 am to CE Tiger
quote:
is this an actual possibility???
I'd double check just in case.. ya know.. to be safe.
so far:
2524 HOUSTON-HOU 5:50pm B7 ON TIME
This post was edited on 8/29/14 at 11:18 am
Posted on 8/29/14 at 3:52 pm to GEAUXmedic
Geauxmedic or rds, can one of you tell me what is spinning south of Galveston. I know it looks like more than what it is and is probably a mid-level feature, but it looks somewhat impressive.
LINK
LINK
Posted on 8/30/14 at 8:56 am to NorthEndZone
quote:
Geauxmedic or rds, can one of you tell me what is spinning south of Galveston. I know it looks like more than what it is and is probably a mid-level feature, but it looks somewhat impressive.
Yep, that was a mid-level vort max that spun up in association with that intense convection. It it is getting stretched out towards the base of the trough this morning as heavy precipitation continues across W. LA this morning.
Posted on 8/30/14 at 9:01 am to rds dc
99L is lurking:
An area of high pressure over the SE should keep this way down in the BoC. As of now, it looks like it will be too far south and moving too fast to really do anything. However, as the MDR transitions to a more suppressed state the Gulf and Caribbean should stay unsettled. The whole area will be worth keeping an eye on for the next 10 days to two weeks, even if 99L doesn't do anything.
An area of high pressure over the SE should keep this way down in the BoC. As of now, it looks like it will be too far south and moving too fast to really do anything. However, as the MDR transitions to a more suppressed state the Gulf and Caribbean should stay unsettled. The whole area will be worth keeping an eye on for the next 10 days to two weeks, even if 99L doesn't do anything.
This post was edited on 9/2/14 at 9:05 pm
Posted on 9/2/14 at 9:16 pm to rds dc
99L stumbled and fumbled through the BoC long enough to form the short lived Dolly. This was a sloppy system that probably looked best over the few hours right before landfall. It was designated a "tropical storm" last night and had an elongated center with multiple vortexes rotating around it. That resulted in an odd forecast sequence from the NHC:
to this
and finally this
We may see a repeat of this in the next week or so but the 500mb across North American might be more conducive to a system turning north.
to this
and finally this
We may see a repeat of this in the next week or so but the 500mb across North American might be more conducive to a system turning north.
Posted on 9/5/14 at 10:58 am to GEAUXmedic
Here we go.......
quote:
Disturbance 30 is a persistent area of squalls in the southwest Caribbean. This area is expected to move slowly to the northwest over the next few days. During this time, it likely will acquire energy from Disturbances 23 and 27, which are currently along 70W and 50W. In about 5 to 7 days, an area of low pressure may form in the northwest Caribbean Sea, to the east of Belize. The chance of development into a depression or a storm during the next 7 days is estimated to be 35 percent. Beyond 7 days, the system is likely to move into the Bay of Campeche or the southwestern Gulf of Mexico where development chances will likely be higher.
Disturbance 31 is an area of squalls located along 79W, south of the South Carolina coast. There are no signs of organization at this time. Any development is likely to be slow as the system moves very slowly to the northeast. There is a 10 percent chance of the system becoming a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm during the next few days.
Disturbance 28 is located south of the Cape Verde Islands. It is moving to the west near 15 mph. This motion should continue for the next few days. The disturbance has 30 percent chance of becoming a depression or a storm within the next 48 hours. There is a 50 percent chance of development during the next 7 days. Indications are that the system should pass north of the Leeward Islands in about 6 days. There is no immediate threat to land aside from the Cape Verde Islands.
Disturbance 29 is an upper low near 29.5N and 41W. It drifted to the northeast during the past 24 hours. A slow southwest drift is likely during the next couple of days. There is only a 10 percent chance of this becoming a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next 7 days.
Posted on 9/6/14 at 6:26 am to tgrbaitn08
quote:
Here we go.......
Yep, peak season and almost no legit threats
We've been watching the BoC since Dolly but things are looking less interesting as time goes on, it is looking more like the EPAC will end up being the favored area for genesis.
90L (what your map shows as 28) has some decent convection this morning but it is currently dealing with the suppressed phase of a KW. It will be less influenced by that as it moves west but the upper levels will be trashed with a buzz saw waiting to eventually shear it out.
The models want to develop something post 90L but there is another burst of SAL forecast to push off Africa and the source area in Africa for tropical waves will be suppressed. Even it something does develop after 90L, it is basically guaranteed to curve out to sea.
All in all, the chance of something from the tropics messing up football season looks pretty low for the next couple of weeks
Posted on 9/9/14 at 1:47 pm to rds dc
Looks like something on the other side of Fla
quote:
An area of showers and thunderstorms just east of the central and
southeastern Bahamas is associated with a weak surface trough of low
pressure. Slow development of this system is possible during the
next few days as it moves west-northwestward or westward at about
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Posted on 9/9/14 at 7:27 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:
Looks like something on the other side of Fla
Latest euro takes it into LA/MS as a TS, NAM has a similar pattern but doesn't go out that far.
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