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Started By
Message
re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread
Posted on 9/9/14 at 7:33 pm to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 9/9/14 at 7:33 pm to GEAUXmedic
Tomorrow is the official peak of hurricane season.
1
Posted on 9/9/14 at 10:34 pm to Bestbank Tiger
This may turn out to be pretty good for my food plots.
Posted on 9/9/14 at 10:38 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Latest euro takes it into LA/MS as a TS
Looks more like a vort max and not a TS, maybe a TD? The Euro has been pretty crappy in the tropics this season but at least it hasn't been "spin up" happy like the GFS. There isn't a whole lot of support for the operational from the EPS. It looks like only 1 of the 53 members develops anything but that one does slide into Louisiana.
The models really struggle with the process that would develop this system. A piece of the TUTT breaks off and drifts west. The best way to describe this is as a positive potential vortiticy anomaly (+PV). The process that would develop a tropical cyclone would replace the +PV anomaly with a -PV anomaly. This is a slow process and just doesn't happen very often. The process is driven by convection and the models don't have the resolution to properly resolve it. Convection helps destroy the +PV anomaly and that drives upper level divergence, and that leads to lower level convergence, that helps consolidate low level vorticity. This helps destroy +PV and replace it with -PV and a cyclone is born.
However, the process is slow and requires ongoing convection. It looked like this was starting earlier today but then a huge outflow boundary was spit out and convection has been struggling since then. This is certainly something interesting to watch over the next few days since the models won't really be able to give much advanced warning on development.
Beyond this, a fresh kelvin wave will be pushing east across the basin and the models are hinting at something spinning up in the Gulf. It looks like the 7 - 10 day range is when something might start to form.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 11:22 am to rds dc
Well. I feel dumb now
Posted on 9/10/14 at 7:55 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
Starting to get interesting. Up to 30% chance of developing.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 8:00 pm to jlu03
Posted on 9/10/14 at 8:27 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
dont feel dumb....there is a reason why people should pay attention to the experts that get paid to do this for a living vs weekend warriors that slept in a Holiday Inn Express last night....
quote:
Disturbance 33 is centered near 26.7N, 75.9W and is expected to cross the Florida Peninsula on Friday. A westward track across the Gulf of Mexico will bring it to the Texas Coast late Monday or early Tuesday. Development chances are around 20 percent while east of Florida, and 10 percent or less while in the Gulf of Mexico.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 8:33 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
dont feel dumb....there is a reason why people should pay attention to the experts that get paid to do this for a living vs weekend warriors that slept in a Holiday Inn Express last night....
well rds does stuff like this for a living.
Now GeauxMedic has a hobby in weather related activities, but it is awesome that he is on top of weather events and can sometimes explain them in a condensed form that most dumbasses on the OT can understand.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 8:34 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
dont feel dumb....there is a reason why people should pay attention to the experts that get paid to do this for a living vs weekend warriors that slept in a Holiday Inn Express last night....
exactly, and most experts are optimistically cautious about this one.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 8:35 pm to GEAUXmedic
Hey bro, will you email me if/when I need to head to higher ground? I can't keep up with this thread.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 8:36 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
exactly, and most experts are optimistically cautious about this one.
isn't impact weather the guys that the oil rig companies in the Gulf hire?
I'm curious because that seems to be his go to
Posted on 9/10/14 at 8:39 pm to tgrbaitn08
Uh oh.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 8:40 pm to gaetti15
quote:
isn't impact weather the guys that the oil rig companies in the Gulf hire?
yes....makes sense right?
Would you rather them use the OT?
This post was edited on 9/10/14 at 8:42 pm
Posted on 9/10/14 at 8:43 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
yes....makes sense right?
yeah...I usually use the NHC forecasts, but I can see why people would use the oil rig's weather company, but it seems that they are just choose the BAMM model for their forecast...
I'd actually be interested in seeing which of the models they use the most (i.e. like the NHC uses TVN model)
Posted on 9/11/14 at 7:56 am to gaetti15
Hurricane Central ?@twc_hurricane 6m
Recon scheduled for today into the disturbance in the NW Bahamas has been cancelled by @nhc_Atlantic. Too poorly organized.
Recon scheduled for today into the disturbance in the NW Bahamas has been cancelled by @nhc_Atlantic. Too poorly organized.
Posted on 9/11/14 at 8:23 am to CWilken21
Looks like there is spin near the Yucatan with heavy moisture. I wonder if this area will be watched?
Posted on 9/11/14 at 9:24 am to jlu03
92L is still spinning away but shear to the N of it has been increasing and now the best convection is SW of the LLC. This will have to track way S to have any chance.
That is an ULL and not a surface feature.
quote:
Looks like there is spin near the Yucatan with heavy moisture
That is an ULL and not a surface feature.
Posted on 9/11/14 at 9:50 am to rds dc
so if we get anything from this, when should we expect it? sunday/monday ish? or if it takes a deeper dive then turns north a couple days later in the week?
Posted on 9/11/14 at 9:55 am to gaetti15
quote:
yeah...I usually use the NHC forecasts, but I can see why people would use the oil rig's weather company, but it seems that they are just choose the BAMM model for their forecast...
I'd actually be interested in seeing which of the models they use the most (i.e. like the NHC uses TVN model)
Posted on 9/11/14 at 11:12 am to tgrbaitn08
I love how WDSU news just post a shot of the forecasts with no explanation that it has a less than 10% chance of becoming anything relevant.
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