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Message
re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread
Posted on 6/4/14 at 11:22 pm to lsu mike
Posted on 6/4/14 at 11:22 pm to lsu mike
quote:
I think that's the point of this thread, to keep people from starting a new thread for every cloud swirl that pops up over the gulf proclaiming its the next Katrina
Exactly. Storms would get their own thread.. But there are a shite load of "disturbances" that it would be stupid the start a thread about every single one. Rummy popped in and didn't shut it down so I'm guessing he will give it a chance at least.
1
Posted on 6/5/14 at 8:21 am to GEAUXmedic
Up to 30% now.
quote:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms have recently increased near a low
pressure area over the southern Bay of Campeche. Despite strong
upper-level winds, some further development of this system is
possible over the next day or two if the low remains offshore of
eastern Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary.
This disturbance has the potential to produce extremely heavy rains
and life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over portions of
southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Blake
Posted on 6/5/14 at 8:22 am to GEAUXmedic
Euro shows it moving north as a huge rainmaker next week for us.
Posted on 6/5/14 at 11:52 am to GEAUXmedic
Great info, y'all. Appreciate it 
Posted on 6/5/14 at 10:41 pm to GEAUXmedic
Not much going on today but 90L did get bumped up to 40%.
It looks like there might be about 24 - 36 more hours for this to do something. There has been a closed low level circulation down there today but an anomalies area of upper level +VP has combined with high shear to keep convection in check. VP won't go negative but should get back to neutral, so it won't suppress convection over the next day or so. Then pretty much every model moves the low level circulation into Mexico. There might still be enough time to get a TD or weak TS.
The Euro and GFS still bring an area of disturbed weather out of the BoC towards Florida but they are still flopping around with how they handle it. The Euro, for the time being, has dropped the solution of leaving a system behind to meander the Louisiana coastline. The 12z runs today differ in how they handle the upper levels with the GFS generating a sharper trough and an area of higher -PV just to the east of a surface vort max.
quote:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A stationary low pressure system located over the southern Bay of
Campeche is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers over
most of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and adjacent land areas
of southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite data
indicate winds to near gale force are likely occurring to the
northeast and east of the center, and some development of this
system is still possible over the next day or two while the low
drifts generally northwestward toward eastern Mexico. This
disturbance will continue to produce extremely heavy rains, along
with life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, over portions of
southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Forecaster Stewart
It looks like there might be about 24 - 36 more hours for this to do something. There has been a closed low level circulation down there today but an anomalies area of upper level +VP has combined with high shear to keep convection in check. VP won't go negative but should get back to neutral, so it won't suppress convection over the next day or so. Then pretty much every model moves the low level circulation into Mexico. There might still be enough time to get a TD or weak TS.
The Euro and GFS still bring an area of disturbed weather out of the BoC towards Florida but they are still flopping around with how they handle it. The Euro, for the time being, has dropped the solution of leaving a system behind to meander the Louisiana coastline. The 12z runs today differ in how they handle the upper levels with the GFS generating a sharper trough and an area of higher -PV just to the east of a surface vort max.
Posted on 6/5/14 at 10:55 pm to rds dc
Kip Holden is laying out all his emergency responder uniforms.
Posted on 6/5/14 at 11:01 pm to Martini
Word is that Cantore has canceled his weekend plans.
"It's Happening!"
"It's Happening!"
Posted on 6/5/14 at 11:08 pm to Martini
quote:
Kip Holden is laying out all his emergency responder uniforms.
Spurs jersey is slightly favored over Heat jersey after tonight.
Posted on 6/6/14 at 4:03 am to rds dc
Bumped to 50%/50% now.
quote:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Thunderstorm activity has increased slightly near the center of a
stationary low pressure system located over the southern Bay of
Campeche. Unfavorable upper-level winds are forecast to subside
somewhat during the next day or so, and gradual development of
this disturbance could occur later today before environmental
conditions become hostile again on Saturday. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, this disturbance
will continue to produce extremely heavy rains, along with
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, over portions of
southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Posted on 6/6/14 at 4:17 am to tigersownall
quote:
I think we are overdue for a big storm this year
Been saying the same thing actually...
Posted on 6/6/14 at 8:20 am to GEAUXmedic
Convection has gotten more robust, right on cue, this morning but shear remains high.
Posted on 6/6/14 at 8:29 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon, if necessary.
This has always puzzled me. With the amount of money our Gvt. wastes, why don't they fly into every damn thunderstorm in the GOM from June to Sep?
Posted on 6/6/14 at 8:38 am to OldSouth
quote:
This has always puzzled me. With the amount of money our Gvt. wastes, why don't they fly into every damn thunderstorm in the GOM from June to Sep?
Unfortunately for a lot of the sience based agencies, the government continues to cut our budgets.
Posted on 6/6/14 at 8:45 am to rds dc
Can we get something like this in the OP? That would be like a contents page listing where storms start and the page number?
Invest 90L 6/6 - Page 5
Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gonzalo
Hanna
Isaias
Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paulette
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred
Invest 90L 6/6 - Page 5
Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gonzalo
Hanna
Isaias
Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paulette
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred
Posted on 6/6/14 at 8:49 am to wickowick
Wick, I think the plan is to "break out" named storms as they occur but keep general season-long discussion in this thread. I think.
Posted on 6/6/14 at 8:55 am to OldSouth
WTF do we need a 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread?
That just means 99% of the thread will be completely useless crap for the 1% when we actually need it.
That just means 99% of the thread will be completely useless crap for the 1% when we actually need it.
Posted on 6/6/14 at 8:59 am to OldSouth
quote:
Wick, I think the plan is to "break out" named storms as they occur but keep general season-long discussion in this thread. I think.
Yep. Although some crappy storms probably won't get threads anything that is a legit threat will.
Posted on 6/6/14 at 9:03 am to Catman88
quote:
WTF do we need a 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread?
That just means 99% of the thread will be completely useless crap for the 1% when we actually need it.
Posted on 6/6/14 at 9:43 am to OldSouth
quote:
quote:
An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon, if necessary.
It looks like they will fly today and might even find a weak TS
Posted on 6/6/14 at 9:45 am to OldSouth
You think Im going to read 5 pages of BS to see if that has already been addressed? See the point???
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