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Posted on 6/6/14 at 9:53 am to tigersownall
quote:
I think we are over due for a big storm this year.
do you even statistics bro?Posted on 6/6/14 at 9:56 am to CarRamrod
quote:
do you even statistics bro?
Posted on 6/8/14 at 9:29 am to rds dc
90L went out with a bang... but at least it has a chance to get upgraded to a TD during post-season analysis
The GFS wants to spin up a system in the 7 - 10 day range with the Canadian model bringing a systme in slightly faster. The Euro was showing some support for this but has backed off in recent days and that is the solution that seems most likely, at this time.
From the 6z GFS:
Why the GFS / Canadian solutions might be too bullish:
It looks like the suppressed phase of an atmospheric kelvin wave will be moving across the Gulf & Caribbean during the same time period that the GFS wants to spin up a system. The black circle shows this but the forecast doesn't go all the way out to 10 days but still covers the time frame when genesis might occur. The green circle highlights the time frame when 90L was struggling to get going.
Looking beyond this forecast:
The above image is unfiltered, so it doesn't highlight KWs. However, it does show a large area of strong suppression in the 10 day range thanks to an emerging MJO. That looks strong enough that it would probably over come any localized convection enhancement due to a KW.
TL, DR - Gulf and W. Caribbean probably are more stable than normal in the 6 - 10 day range making it hard for the GFS system to spin up.
The GFS wants to spin up a system in the 7 - 10 day range with the Canadian model bringing a systme in slightly faster. The Euro was showing some support for this but has backed off in recent days and that is the solution that seems most likely, at this time.
From the 6z GFS:
Why the GFS / Canadian solutions might be too bullish:
It looks like the suppressed phase of an atmospheric kelvin wave will be moving across the Gulf & Caribbean during the same time period that the GFS wants to spin up a system. The black circle shows this but the forecast doesn't go all the way out to 10 days but still covers the time frame when genesis might occur. The green circle highlights the time frame when 90L was struggling to get going.
Looking beyond this forecast:
The above image is unfiltered, so it doesn't highlight KWs. However, it does show a large area of strong suppression in the 10 day range thanks to an emerging MJO. That looks strong enough that it would probably over come any localized convection enhancement due to a KW.
TL, DR - Gulf and W. Caribbean probably are more stable than normal in the 6 - 10 day range making it hard for the GFS system to spin up.
Posted on 6/8/14 at 9:47 am to rds dc
You better settle down with all these big words, you're liable to scare the OT cliques into confusion and anger.
:omg:
:omg:
Posted on 6/8/14 at 10:11 am to bubbz
quote:
You better settle down with all these big words, you're liable to scare the OT cliques into confusion and anger.
That is what happens on Sunday mornings with two sick kids while waiting for it to stop raining so you can go out for a run
Posted on 6/9/14 at 9:57 pm to rds dc
The GFS just won't give up on a storm in the Gulf:
Posted on 6/9/14 at 10:03 pm to rds dc
What's the % it gets named now?
Posted on 6/9/14 at 10:10 pm to LSUzealot
quote:
What's the % it gets named now?
Probably something like less than 5% at this time. There isn't really any support for it from the other models or even from the ensembles of the GFS. However, it is intriguing to see a major model insist on a storm run after run like this.
Posted on 6/14/14 at 12:06 pm to rds dc
The GFS refuses to fold
However, there are some signs that something may actually spin up down there. Euro/Euro Ensembles are starting to focus in on the EPAC during that same time frame. The MJO forecast favors suppressed convection across the area but there appears to be an atmospheric kelvin wave passing through Central America. A quick look at the 200mb maps shows why the Euro favors the EPAC and GFS favors the W. Caribbean. The teleconnections indicate that there might be an E. Coast trough in the long range and that would probably kick any development out through Florida, protecting the Gulf.
However, there are some signs that something may actually spin up down there. Euro/Euro Ensembles are starting to focus in on the EPAC during that same time frame. The MJO forecast favors suppressed convection across the area but there appears to be an atmospheric kelvin wave passing through Central America. A quick look at the 200mb maps shows why the Euro favors the EPAC and GFS favors the W. Caribbean. The teleconnections indicate that there might be an E. Coast trough in the long range and that would probably kick any development out through Florida, protecting the Gulf.
This post was edited on 6/25/14 at 9:35 pm
Posted on 6/25/14 at 8:24 am to rds dc
Southern Gulf becoming very active...
Posted on 6/25/14 at 8:39 am to jlu03
I don't care what happens as long as it happens after the Fourth of July
This post was edited on 6/25/14 at 8:40 am
Posted on 6/25/14 at 8:41 am to jlu03
Accuweather and Weather Channel aren't showing that much action in the Gulf. Where are you getting that from?
Posted on 6/25/14 at 8:42 am to tigerbaittrick
spaghettimodels.com
Posted on 6/25/14 at 8:45 am to jlu03
I wonder why the models aren't similar? 
Posted on 6/25/14 at 8:47 am to tigerbaittrick
I'm ready for my week long vacation from the state offices.
Posted on 6/25/14 at 8:58 am to tigerbaittrick
quote:
I wonder why the models aren't similar?
That is current Gulf radar, not a model.
Posted on 6/25/14 at 9:01 am to jlu03
None of the models are making anything of that at all
Posted on 6/25/14 at 8:11 pm to jlu03
quote:
Southern Gulf becoming very active...
Convection is being enhanced by the passage of an atmospheric kelvin wave but upper level conditions appear to be too hostile for development in the Gulf. Conditions are better in the EPAC and we will probably see a storm or maybe even two come out of this.
Posted on 6/25/14 at 8:16 pm to baytiger
quote:
None of the models are making anything of that at all
Yeah, even the GFS, which loves to spin up storms down there this time of year with the passage of pretty much every KW, doesn't have anything in the W. Caribbean or Gulf. Although, looks like there might be a slim chance that we get a weak system off the SE coast at some point in the next week.
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