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Started By
Message
re: Danny - no longer a threat
Posted on 8/18/15 at 10:05 am to TDsngumbo
Posted on 8/18/15 at 10:05 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2015
The low pressure system that has been moving westward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic the past few days has finally acquired
enough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical
cyclone. A 1232 UTC ASCAT-B overpass indicated the system has a
well-defined circulation, and there was also a large field of 30-kt
and greater wind vectors in the eastern semicircle. Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates are a consensus T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB, so
the initial intensity is set at 30 kt for this advisory. Upper-level
outflow is good to the south and fair to the north.
The initial motion estimate is 280/11 kt. The global and regional
models are in good agreement on the tropical cyclone moving
west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a deep-layer
subtropical ridge for the next 48-72 hours, accompanied by a
decrease in forward speed as the system approaches a weakness in
this ridge. After that time, the ridge is expected to build back in
as a trough to the north lifts out, forcing the cyclone to turn more
westward and accelerate through the remainder of the forecast
period. The official forecast track lies close to but a little
faster than the multi-model consensus TVCN due to the much slower
GFS model creating a slow bias in the consensus.
The overall atmospheric and oceanic environments surrounding the
cyclone appear conducive for slow but steady strengthening
throughout the forecast period. The only inhibiting factor will be
occasional brief intrusions of dry mid-level air associated with the
Saharan Air Layer that lies just to the north of the depression.
However, given the very low vertical wind shear of less than 5 kt,
the convective structure is expected to steadily increase in
organization, allowing the dry air intrusions to be mixed out. The
official intensity forecast closely follows the intensity consensus
model IVCN through 72 hours, and then leans closer to a blend of the
Decay-SHIPS and LGEM models at 96 and 120 hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/1500Z 10.6N 36.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 11.0N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 11.3N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 11.6N 40.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 12.1N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 13.2N 44.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 13.7N 47.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 14.0N 52.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
1
Posted on 8/18/15 at 10:07 am to TDsngumbo
ETA: I'm not celebrating the potential destruction of a tropical system. I'm just interested in these systems.
This post was edited on 8/18/15 at 12:53 pm
Posted on 8/18/15 at 10:09 am to GetCocky11
Is it just me or is this thing moving pretty slow?
Posted on 8/18/15 at 10:10 am to AmOutlawBR
quote:
Is it just me or is this thing moving pretty slow?
It's moving west at 13 mph. That's not very slow at all.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 10:14 am to TDsngumbo
Posted on 8/18/15 at 10:21 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
TDsngumbo
4. Katrina (2005) - 60 miles to the west and BR would have been destroyed by strong Cat 3 wind gusts [/quote]
Cat three winds would NOT have destroyd BR... Whats wrong with you.... The winds would have dies down by the time it hit BR.....
Not to steal your thunder but IMO this thing will get swept out into the Atlantic............
Posted on 8/18/15 at 10:22 am to dukke v
quote:
dukke v
quote:Well, we are fricked now. Nice knowing ya'll.
Not to steal your thunder but IMO this thing will get swept out into the Atlantic............
PJ, I love ya, but come on.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 10:22 am to dukke v
quote:
Not to steal your thunder but IMO this thing will get swept out into the Atlantic............
Peeej has spoken! Nothing to worry about.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 10:23 am to Rox
quote:
PJ, I love ya, but come on.
OK...We shall see............. Its too far out....
Posted on 8/18/15 at 10:30 am to dukke v
quote:
4. Katrina (2005) - 60 miles to the west and BR would have been destroyed by strong Cat 3 wind gusts
Cat three winds would NOT have destroyd BR... Whats wrong with you.... The winds would have dies down by the time it hit BR.....[/quote]
Let me remind you of what happened to Baton Rouge during and after Gustav.
Gustav made landfall with 100mph winds and Baton Rouge Metro Airport recorded a gust of over 90mph. That's not a very big difference in windspeed at all. Baton Rouge was absolutely shredded by wind and we came to a screeching halt for at least 3 or 4 days. In Baton Rouge. This far inland.
Hurricane Katrina made landfall just south of New Orleans and moved due north. At the time of landfall, its sustained winds were 125 mph. Baton Rouge, roughly 60 miles west of New Orleans, recorded a peak wind gust of 50mph during Katrina. Had Hurricane Katrina been 60 miles to the west, with sustained winds of 125mph and moving as fast as it was, Baton Rouge would have definitely received category 3 wind gusts. Picture Baton Rouge after Hurricane Gustav (category 1 wind gusts). Now imagine Baton Rouge in the aftermath of category 3 wind gusts.
That, TigerDroppings, is how you put peeeeeeej in his place.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 10:35 am to dukke v
I actually agree with Peej on this one.
I must say though, I'm quite impressed with the copy and pasting that is already taking place with this thing just about 2800 miles from Louisiana.
I must say though, I'm quite impressed with the copy and pasting that is already taking place with this thing just about 2800 miles from Louisiana.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 10:50 am to dukke v
quote:the most likely positive fate for this storm is that it gets destroyed by shear once it makes it to the Caribbean
Not to steal your thunder but IMO this thing will get swept out into the Atlantic............
in fact I'd say it's a pretty high probability that this happens. ECMWF puts a persistent 15kt+ shear feature over the Caribbean that just doesn't die down in the next week.
As for it recurving, I just don't see it staying in the Atlantic.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 10:56 am to baytiger
quote:
in fact I'd say it's a pretty high probability that this happens. ECMWF puts a persistent 15kt+ shear feature over the Caribbean that just doesn't die down in the next week.
If that's the case, then why do you think the NHC is forecasting an 85kt storm in 5 days? are they just playing it safe in case the shear happens to decrease?
Posted on 8/18/15 at 10:56 am to baytiger
quote:
in fact I'd say it's a pretty high probability that this happens. ECMWF puts a persistent 15kt+ shear feature over the Caribbean that just doesn't die down in the next week.
The Euro EPS and GEFS are also showing this and heights building to the N. At this time, there don't appear to be many options for this system other than getting shredded. Also, the small size will make it even more susceptible to shear. Hopefully, it can hold on long enough to bring some rain to the islands and help ease the drought conditions.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 11:00 am to lsufishnhunt
quote:because it's not in the caribbean yet in 5 days
If that's the case, then why do you think the NHC is forecasting an 85kt storm in 5 days? are they just playing it safe in case the shear happens to decrease?
Posted on 8/18/15 at 11:05 am to baytiger
Got ya....
If the intensity forecast holds true, does a stronger storm stand a chance to survive the shear?
If the intensity forecast holds true, does a stronger storm stand a chance to survive the shear?
Posted on 8/18/15 at 11:13 am to lsufishnhunt
We never lost power for Katrina in Ascension
It would have been really bad had it come close to BR but maybe that would have spared NO a little bit due to how the water was pushed in.
It would have been really bad had it come close to BR but maybe that would have spared NO a little bit due to how the water was pushed in.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 11:14 am to lsufishnhunt
quote:
If the intensity forecast holds true, does a stronger storm stand a chance to survive the shear?
Typically, the stronger the storm, the less affected it is by shear unless the shear is also very strong. If it doesn't really get its act together before the shear begins, it's going to have a tough time holding together. However, the NHC is calling for the shear to subside once the ridge builds back into place after temporarily lifting. If the storm can hold together through that and not be interacting with land when the ridge rebuilds, we'll have an intensifying storm to watch barrel roll through the Caribbean.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 11:36 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
forecast to become Tropical Storm Danny
This thread would have so much more potential if it was Tropical Stormy Daniels.
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