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re: El Nino's effect on Hurricane Season
Posted on 5/12/14 at 2:23 pm to TDsngumbo
Posted on 5/12/14 at 2:23 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
To be fair, the most memorable hurricanes in our recent history are from La Nina years:
1. Cat 2/3 Hurricane Gustav (2008)
2. Cat 3/4 Hurricane Katrina (2005)
This thread is a sham for not mentioning Rita
1
Posted on 5/12/14 at 2:46 pm to Pedro
quote:
Yra I edited. I understand what you're getting at now
Lili rapidly strengthened to a cat 4. Everyone freaked out. She rapidly weakened to cat 1 overnight before landfall thanks to wind shear and DRY AIR
This post was edited on 5/12/14 at 2:52 pm
Posted on 5/14/14 at 3:39 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
This year's El Nino isn't panning out to be as strong as everyone thought.
Lafayette isn't throwing in the towel yet
Local station comparing this year to the 1997/98 event.
NOAA has a blog up on this here.
And the SOI looks to be going negative again.
This post was edited on 5/14/14 at 3:44 pm
Posted on 5/19/14 at 9:33 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
Cat 3 Hurricane Andrew (1992) was neither a La Nina or El Nino year but 1991-92 (year prior) was in fact a Moderate El Nino year.
Andrew is an interesting case and I have seen it included on list of "El Nino" year storms but that El Nino officially ended in May of that year. However, that season looks a lot like a Nino season based on the numbers 7/4/1. Andrew, the first real storm, didn't form until mid-August and the atmosphere was pretty Nino like during the early going. It seems like it takes a while for the Atlantic to flip after the Pacific has transitioned from Nino or Nina.
There might be a window of opportunity for a system to form in the western Caribbean near the end of May or early June but it probably wouldn't make it very far north
Posted on 5/19/14 at 9:40 pm to rds dc
I can tell you that oysters grow better in La Nina climates rather than El Nino climates.
La Nina climates in Louisiana tend to produce saltier conditions, while El Nino climates tend to be wetter than normal causing fresher conditions.
La Nina climates in Louisiana tend to produce saltier conditions, while El Nino climates tend to be wetter than normal causing fresher conditions.
Posted on 5/19/14 at 9:46 pm to rds dc
quote:
Some interesting Louisiana hurricane history here.
was it you that made that and posted it to our forum?
Posted on 5/19/14 at 9:51 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
was it you that made that and posted it to our forum?
No, what forum is that? I pretty much only post here unless it is snow related.
Posted on 5/19/14 at 9:53 pm to rds dc
quote:
No, what forum is that? I pretty much only post here unless it is snow related.
oh never mind lol. the guy who made it posted it to gulfcoastwx earlier today, only had one post though
Posted on 5/19/14 at 9:53 pm to gaetti15
quote:
La Nina climates in Louisiana tend to produce saltier conditions, while El Nino climates tend to be wetter than normal causing fresher conditions.
I don't remember what year it was, but I was in college at LSU - I was at LSU for a long time
- and there was a bad drought. People were catching saltwater type fish pretty crazy far inland. 
Posted on 5/19/14 at 9:56 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
oh never mind lol. the guy who made it posted it to gulfcoastwx earlier today, only had one post though
Yeah, whoever is running that sight is spreading it around pretty good
I've seen it in a few places now. 
Posted on 5/19/14 at 9:56 pm to colorchangintiger
quote:
This thread is a sham for not mentioning Rita
Nice cast. Let's see if you get a bite.
Posted on 5/19/14 at 9:58 pm to rds dc
quote:
I don't remember what year it was, but I was in college at LSU - I was at LSU for a long time - and there was a bad drought. People were catching saltwater type fish pretty crazy far inland.
1999-2000 was a multiple year strong La Nina Cycle?
Posted on 5/19/14 at 10:14 pm to TDsngumbo
weather board
last season was pretty slow...
last season was pretty slow...
Posted on 5/22/14 at 9:33 pm to lsuwontonwrap
Posted on 5/25/14 at 10:47 am to rds dc
Amanda joins Bud from 2012 as earliest forming major. What else happened in 2012? The predicted El Nino collapsed... not saying it will happen again
This post was edited on 5/25/14 at 10:48 am
Posted on 5/25/14 at 11:01 am to rds dc
Yeah she's a fricking monster.. won't last past tomorrow though
Posted on 5/25/14 at 11:02 am to GEAUXmedic
the pacific hurricane season is always more interesting
Posted on 5/26/14 at 3:32 pm to gaetti15
quote:
5/26/2014 - 10:35 am ET/9:35 am CT: The GFS model guidance continues to show the potential for tropical development in the western Caribbean right around the June 1st to June 4th time frame with this system headed towards the Florida Peninsula during the June 5th to June 8th time period. This is a scenario that the GFS model has been advertising since about the middle part of last week. Now, the Canadian model guidance agrees with the GFS model, however, the European model guidance now shows no such tropical system. This potential system is still about a week away and there is still a lot of room for changes in both the possible development and any track this system may take. Bottom line is that I think there is a fairly good chance that we will be watching the western Caribbean starting around next Monday for development. For more information on this, go to LINK .
Posted on 5/26/14 at 4:04 pm to Jim Rockford
There has been a weak signal since about mid-month that there would be a window of opportunity in this time frame. The Canadian sucks at the tropics, so having that on your side isn't really a plus
The GEFS is starting to show some support of the operational but they both tend to have big errors at this lead range. The models still suck a predicting tropical cyclogenesis but have gotten much better at narrowing down areas to watch.
The GEFS is starting to show some support of the operational but they both tend to have big errors at this lead range. The models still suck a predicting tropical cyclogenesis but have gotten much better at narrowing down areas to watch.
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