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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Dorian - Headed to Canada
Posted on 8/27/19 at 12:52 pm to Shankapotamous
Posted on 8/27/19 at 12:52 pm to Shankapotamous
GFS Ensembles:
3
Posted on 8/27/19 at 12:55 pm to GEAUXmedic
Just cause.
This post was edited on 8/27/19 at 12:55 pm
Posted on 8/27/19 at 12:55 pm to GEAUXmedic
That western bend is far more pronounced on this ensemble run.
Posted on 8/27/19 at 12:55 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
GFS Ensembles
Way south of the operational but they are still running on the old core.
Posted on 8/27/19 at 12:57 pm to rds dc
The front moving through is moving to fast to bend this back out to sea rds?
Posted on 8/27/19 at 12:58 pm to 50_Tiger
This should change things a little.
quote:
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019
...DORIAN'S CENTER REFORMS FARTHER NORTH...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS STILL AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 62.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM WNW OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Posted on 8/27/19 at 1:01 pm to GEAUXmedic
more and more seems like it's going to miss and hit further north
anyone have the euro ensembles yet?
anyone have the euro ensembles yet?
This post was edited on 8/27/19 at 1:02 pm
Posted on 8/27/19 at 1:01 pm to GEAUXmedic
HMON is on board now with a Cat 1 into Miami. Before it didn't develop.
This post was edited on 8/27/19 at 1:02 pm
Posted on 8/27/19 at 1:05 pm to Shankapotamous
Similar situation but going on to the Bahamas. I'm going to cancel everything today and get refunded. Probably best to do that as well if you can.
Posted on 8/27/19 at 1:08 pm to deuce985
quote:
anyone have the euro ensembles yet?
Euro is still running.
So far north @ 72 hours compared to last run.
This post was edited on 8/27/19 at 1:09 pm
Posted on 8/27/19 at 1:24 pm to Shankapotamous
quote:
fly into Miami Friday night then drive down to Key West Saturday morning, think there's any chance I'm not screwed here?
Seems risky however you should have a better idea after Wednesday what the potential is once this storm passes Hispaniola
Posted on 8/27/19 at 1:24 pm to GEAUXmedic
the models seem to be trending north on the tracks
Posted on 8/27/19 at 1:24 pm to deltaland
My issue is I have to cancel by tonight at midnight to get full refund.
Posted on 8/27/19 at 1:27 pm to deuce985
Euro gets this back into the gulf. This is not the trend you want from todays models.
Posted on 8/27/19 at 1:29 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Euro is still running.
So far north @ 72 hours compared to last run.
987mb into Melbourne, slightly south of 00z, moving into Gulf north of Tampa around 997mb.
Posted on 8/27/19 at 1:29 pm to GEAUXmedic
Euro has it sitting offshore of Destin Monday morning. I’m gonna be at Miramar beach Friday until Monday 
Posted on 8/27/19 at 1:29 pm to lsugolfredman
Do I need to evacuate from Tampa?
Posted on 8/27/19 at 1:30 pm to lsugolfredman
12z model rundown:
12Z ICON - Cat 2 entering Gulf moving westward through Straits
12Z UKMET- CAT 2 near Miami entering Gulf moving southwestward
12Z GFS - Cat 1/2 landfall around Melbourne, FL
12Z Euro - Cat 1 around around Palm Beach - crossing back into gulf
12Z NAVGEM - Cat 2 landfall around Miami entering gulf
12Z CMC - Cat 1 landfall around Palm Beach, exiting around Tampa into gulf
12Z ICON - Cat 2 entering Gulf moving westward through Straits
12Z UKMET- CAT 2 near Miami entering Gulf moving southwestward
12Z GFS - Cat 1/2 landfall around Melbourne, FL
12Z Euro - Cat 1 around around Palm Beach - crossing back into gulf
12Z NAVGEM - Cat 2 landfall around Miami entering gulf
12Z CMC - Cat 1 landfall around Palm Beach, exiting around Tampa into gulf
Posted on 8/27/19 at 1:31 pm to lsugolfredman
quote:
Euro gets this back into the gulf. This is not the trend you want from todays models.
Only positive is it crosses Florida first so it won’t be more than a TS. Entering the gulf through the keys is what you do not want
Posted on 8/27/19 at 1:32 pm to lsugolfredman
what a shitty run on all the models
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