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2
Posted on 9/1/18 at 6:17 pm to iron banks
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 1 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Florence, located about a few hundred miles west of the
Cabo Verde Islands.
1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern and
central Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and adjacent
Atlantic waters are associated with a tropical wave and an
upper-level trough. This activity is expected to move
west-northwestward across the remainder of the Bahamas and south
Florida during the next day or so and little, if any, development
is expected during that time due to strong upper-level winds.
Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more
favorable for development when the system moves across the Gulf of
Mexico, where a tropical depression could form during the early to
middle part of next week. Regardless of development, heavy rains
are likely across much of the Bahamas and southern Florida during
the next day or two. See products from your local weather forecast
office for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Forecaster Cangialosi
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 1 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Florence, located about a few hundred miles west of the
Cabo Verde Islands.
1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern and
central Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and adjacent
Atlantic waters are associated with a tropical wave and an
upper-level trough. This activity is expected to move
west-northwestward across the remainder of the Bahamas and south
Florida during the next day or so and little, if any, development
is expected during that time due to strong upper-level winds.
Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more
favorable for development when the system moves across the Gulf of
Mexico, where a tropical depression could form during the early to
middle part of next week. Regardless of development, heavy rains
are likely across much of the Bahamas and southern Florida during
the next day or two. See products from your local weather forecast
office for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Forecaster Cangialosi
Posted on 9/1/18 at 6:33 pm to rds dc
quote:
Update from Levi at Tropical Tidbits. A lot of the model images that are posted in these threads are from his website. He is working on a graduate degree at FSU.
I enjoy and appreciate all the information all of the knowledgeable OPs share. Thanks a lot.
Watching Levi's vlog, it reminded me of something out an old college hurricane meteorology textbook respecting upper level lows and pools of very cold air aloft. He shows two ULLs diverging and providing a gap for the low to pass through and providing marginally better conditions for development. He didn't mention the temperatures of those ULLs, any stranded UL cold pools or any conditions under which one might show up or develop.
As I recall, a good many hurricanes which experienced dramatic strengthening, rapid pressure drops and commensurate wind increases share in common one or more ULL cold pools subsiding and providing dramatic potential energy for tropical cyclones in their vicinity. Camille being the textbook example. My memory tells me that her extreme pressure drop coincided with the cold air subsidence and she even followed the event's shear line into the Mississippi coast.
Do y'all have any intelligence on this or do any of y'all's links show anything about this respecting this potential threat?
Thanks again for all the great updates and interpretations y'all provide us. I'll sit back and lurk and follow any information or guidance forthcoming.
Posted on 9/1/18 at 7:17 pm to TigerStripes06
quote:
So basically a rainmaker if This forecast holds? Honestly, we could use a few inches of rain in swla.
A FEW. My house is still not right after 2016.
Posted on 9/1/18 at 7:34 pm to Bronsonburner
GOHSEP started issuing emails to agency heads today, saying to prepare for 2.5-5 in of rain.
Posted on 9/1/18 at 7:41 pm to tLSU
Any chance this affects the LSU home opener?
Posted on 9/1/18 at 7:47 pm to Cosmo
Ermagherd foodbarrr
Posted on 9/1/18 at 8:14 pm to tLSU
Frick this storm, man. I was planning a nice, 4 day weekend to take care of some things around the house and plant my fall garden.
Now, looks like I'm going to delay planting and have to go to the office to do storm prep.
Now, looks like I'm going to delay planting and have to go to the office to do storm prep.
Posted on 9/1/18 at 8:15 pm to Cowboyfan89
You were gonna take a 4 day weekend?
Posted on 9/1/18 at 8:16 pm to rds dc
quote:
Hurricane Season - Potential Gulf Threat (NHC 50%)
This post was edited on 9/1/18 at 9:01 pm
Posted on 9/1/18 at 8:21 pm to BRgetthenet
He gonna pass a good time at da silver slippa.
Posted on 9/1/18 at 8:22 pm to The Boat
When is this thing projected to hit Louisiana?
Posted on 9/1/18 at 8:23 pm to iron banks
Since the Euro was showing possible rapid intensification before hitting land I'm hoping it moves in faster than projected. I'm actually hoping it is a Wednesday storm because that wouldn't ruin my weekend plans pending how strong the storm is.
That was only 1 run of the Euro though. GFS looks slightly stronger than previous runs but it still has it weak as hell. I'd be curious to know what Euro shows tomorrow it has been fairly consistent on the path hitting land. If Euro keeps showing it speeding up development then I would start to worry.
That was only 1 run of the Euro though. GFS looks slightly stronger than previous runs but it still has it weak as hell. I'd be curious to know what Euro shows tomorrow it has been fairly consistent on the path hitting land. If Euro keeps showing it speeding up development then I would start to worry.
This post was edited on 9/1/18 at 8:26 pm
Posted on 9/1/18 at 8:49 pm to tLSU
quote:
GOHSEP started issuing emails to agency heads today, saying to prepare for 2.5-5 in of rain.
At what point will we get the "Beanie Weenie" stock up signal?
Posted on 9/2/18 at 12:27 am to fatboydave
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Florence, located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands.
1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern and
central Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and adjacent
Atlantic waters are associated with a tropical wave and an
upper-level trough. This activity is expected to move
west-northwestward across the remainder of the Bahamas and south
Florida during the next day or so and little, if any, development
is expected during that time due to strong upper-level winds.
Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more
favorable for development when the system moves across the Gulf of
Mexico, where a tropical depression could form during the early to
middle part of next week. Regardless of development, heavy rains
are likely across much of the Bahamas and southern Florida during
the next day or two. See products from your local weather forecast
office for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Forecaster Pasch
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Florence, located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands.
1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern and
central Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and adjacent
Atlantic waters are associated with a tropical wave and an
upper-level trough. This activity is expected to move
west-northwestward across the remainder of the Bahamas and south
Florida during the next day or so and little, if any, development
is expected during that time due to strong upper-level winds.
Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more
favorable for development when the system moves across the Gulf of
Mexico, where a tropical depression could form during the early to
middle part of next week. Regardless of development, heavy rains
are likely across much of the Bahamas and southern Florida during
the next day or two. See products from your local weather forecast
office for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Forecaster Pasch
Posted on 9/2/18 at 6:20 am to rds dc
Looks like it is trying to get together
Posted on 9/2/18 at 6:23 am to fishfighter
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Florence, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands.
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern and
central Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters, including the Straits
of Florida, are associated with a tropical wave interacting with an
upper-level trough. This weather system is expected to move
west-northwestward across the remainder of the Bahamas, southern
Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so and little,
if any, development is expected during that time due to strong
upper-level winds. However, the current unfavorable upper-level
wind pattern is expected to gradually change and become more
conducive for a tropical depression to form over the eastern and
central Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday or Wednesday. This disturbance
will spread locally heavy rains across much of the Bahamas, southern
Florida, and the Keys during the next day or two. See products from
your local weather forecast office for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Florence, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands.
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern and
central Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters, including the Straits
of Florida, are associated with a tropical wave interacting with an
upper-level trough. This weather system is expected to move
west-northwestward across the remainder of the Bahamas, southern
Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so and little,
if any, development is expected during that time due to strong
upper-level winds. However, the current unfavorable upper-level
wind pattern is expected to gradually change and become more
conducive for a tropical depression to form over the eastern and
central Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday or Wednesday. This disturbance
will spread locally heavy rains across much of the Bahamas, southern
Florida, and the Keys during the next day or two. See products from
your local weather forecast office for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
Posted on 9/2/18 at 6:23 am to fishfighter
Why can't storms at least be polite enough to make landfall on a Friday evening/Saturday morning. I don't have time for that nonsense in the middle of the week
Posted on 9/2/18 at 6:25 am to lsuman25
Still similar tracks, still weak.
Posted on 9/2/18 at 6:27 am to tLSU
Looks like the GFS came in stronger than the 00Z.
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